QUESTION: FOURTH TIME LUCKY? Aidan O’Brien’s Newmarket 1,000 Guineas winners don’t win today’s Irish version. What’s Daqman’s verdict today when the Ballydoyle maestro has the favourite, Winter, trying to make it fourth time lucky for the double?
QUESTION: SPOT ON FOR VALUE? Daqman’s value bets have him 48 points in front of Pricewise of the Racing Post (winners score 25-8) as they face each other today in the 3.25 at The Curragh and the 3.25 at Chantilly. Nice timing European planners!
BEATEN TRIO DON’T COMPARE
You must compare like with like. When the Press tells you that Aidan O’Brien’s Newmarket 1,000 Guineas winners have all been beaten in the Curragh version, I suggest you look at the reality.
Winter is quite different in that she didn’t have a two-year-old career, just quiet runs before winning her maiden; and has raced only five times in her life.
She is entitled to be described as an ‘improving filly’ and fillies like that are potent even against the colts once they have the sun on their backs.
O’Brien’s Newmarket winners who were Curragh 1,000 losers were Homecoming Queen, who was running in her FIFTEENTH race, Minding who had an extensive juvenile career (won Moyglare and Fillies Mile) and Virginia Waters (six races).
Of today’s other O’Brien runners, Hydrangea has raced nine times, placed in the Moyglare and Fillies mile as a juvenile; Roly Poly 10, with three wins as a two-year-old.
Hydrangea’s failure in the Newmarket 1,000 cannot simply be explained away by the ground. This was Spring good-to-firm with plenty of grass.
With cheekpieces now on, and with Winter and Roly Poly ridden by the top two jockeys of the four O’Brien rides, Hydrangea looks more like a pacemaker to me. Only a downpour can change the shape of this race.
WINTER IS RATED WELL CLEAR
3.25 The Curragh (Irish 1,000 Guineas) My base ratings are modified to future ratings, based on collateral form and the potential I read from it, plus ground conditions. That means I have checked out each filly’s antecedents and her own known ability on an easy surface. That gives me an order in of:
1 Winter (115) I gave her 110 and a ^^ for improvement in my fillies-to-follow list at the start of the Classics campaign, joint top rating with Rhododendron. My future rating for this is to loft her 5lb to 115.
2 Hydrangea (108) She beat Winter when fresh in the Leopardstown 1,000 Guineas Trial (April) but, easy to back, failed to run her race behind the same filly in the Newmarket Guineas, so I’m docking her 5lb. but restoring 3lb for first-time cheekpieces. They could make the difference.
3 Intricately (105) Seems to have gone backwards. Beat Hydrangea in the Moyglare in the autumn but only fourth to that one in the 7f 1,000 Guineas trial in April and well out of the back door behind Winter in the 1,000 Guineas. An easy surface gives her a last chance to bounce back.
3 Roly Poly (105) Was a hot little number as a juvenile, second in both the Lowther and the Cheveley Park, after winning the Cherry Hinton.
All that could have used her up or, equally possible, she couldn’t cope with the 7f and 1m of the Nell Gwyn and French 1,000 Guineas this year, certainly not in the very soft ground for the Pouliches.
Though her base rating is on a par with Hydrangea she, too, must be regarded as exposed. One of the pair could run above herself, but do you want to bet which one, and whether it’s enough to beat Winter?
Rehana (102) Beat Rhododendron last June but that one improved past her and she has since been beaten by Intricately, Hydrangea and Winter.
Bounced back in more modest company at Naas. The Press are behind her but there is no evidence on paper or in her potential for her winning this race, and best form is on a sound surface.
Aneen (98) Half-sister to Awtaad who completed a hat-trick when winning this race last year. But, though highly regarded, Aneen has had only two starts in her life, not seen out again since she broke her maiden on today’s course in October.
Needs to find a stone to win but could improve enough to get into the frame if all is well with her. Her sire won the French Derby with cut in the ground and the dam’s sire liked some give.
Bean Feasa (98) Behind Hydrangea in the Leopardstown 1,000 Guineas Trial in April (7f) but a month later in first time tongue-strap stopped Asking over a furlong further’
This fortune teller doubts the 4lb rise she got for that because Asking had previously been well beaten by a 95 colt, though receiving 8lb, putting her on more likely 85 not the 95 of her official rating. But entitled to improve a bit.
Asking (96) Another exposed filly for Ballydoyle, sister to a hurdler which suggests stamina but not class or enough pace for a race like this.
Second in the Derrinstown 1,000 Guineas Trial to Bean Feasa who had been fifth, three and a half lengths off Hydrangea and Winter, in an earlier trial, also at Leopardstown but a furlong shorter.
That helped to hike her to a 97 rating but the next two to finish behind her in that trial have only maiden wins on their CV, and she has no obvious propensity for cut in the ground.
VERDICT: Heavy rain would make a mess of things on this building site they call the Curragh, but I think there are fewer ifs and buts about Winter than there were about that sweaty beast Churchill yesterday.
He won because there was nothing else of his calibre in the race. Unless Aneen (two runs) can make a big leap, there’s nothing else on form to beat Winter in this.
DEAUVILLE DESERVES GOLD
1.50 The Curragh Gustav Klimt’s brothers were all winning two-year-olds, so can layers kiss their money goodbye? Not quite as easy as that but if it’s not champagne and caviar, it could be cakes and ale, with Somerset Maugham, a relative of Hydrangea.
2.20 The Curragh (Tattersalls Gold Cup) After Deauville won for my Early Birds list I dropped him from the continuing horses to follow, now known as Fortune Cookies.
I thought he’d be overwhelmed in Group 1, but five out of eight horses here are rated between 113-116 and he’s one of those who acts on any going.
Decorated Knight is with Roger Charlton, who won this race twice through Al Kazeem. Knight has won at the highest level but that was in Meydan over Folkswood, who was a well-beaten third to Deauvbille at Chester.
It’s more than a year since Moonlight Magic won the Derrinstown Derby Trial and he’s been placed in Group 2 and Group 3, so a nearly horse.
Success Days, third in this last year, is also Group 3 at best, and Somehow’s rating has been static now for 14 months.
VALOUR VALUE AT BETDAQ 9.8
2.50 The Curragh (Gallinule Stakes) Aidan O’Brien’s form figures in this in the decade are 11111121121, seven of the nine as favourites.
But, if you think he can continue the run, you can back all three of his contenders today, since he doesn’t have the favourite this morning. That’s potential improver Red Label.
The O’Brien horses were offered 6.0 Homesman (Ryan Moore), 10.0 Finn McCool (Donnacha O’Brien) and 13.5 Utah (Seamie Heffernan)
The value in the race is Act of Valour (9.8), who impressed in his prep for this, travelling well and settling the issue like an old hand, despite early shows of greenness. Royal Ascot Derby (King Edward V11) next stop.
3.25 Chantilly (Prix d’Ispahan) The winner of this will be seen to advantage at Royal Ascot or in Sandown’s Eclipse.
The race has produced ace milers, Goldikova (2010) and Solow (2015), who both went on to win the Queen Anne, which is the target for Usherette (3.95 on BETDAQ)
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20)
1.50 The Curragh
BET 6pts win GUSTAV KLIMT
BET 1pt win and place SOMERSET MAUGHAM
2.20 The Curragh
BET 5pts win DEAUVILLE
2.50 The Curragh
BET 2.2pts win and place ACT OF VALOUR
3.25 Chantilly
BET 6.6pts win USHERETTE
3.25 The Curragh
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) WINTER
FORTUNE COOKIES: Winter (3.25 The Curragh)
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