DAQMAN THE MAGICIAN LOOKING FOR A BIG BREAK: Daqman bids for two Classics in 24 hours when he tries to follow Magician (WON 100-30) in the Irish 2,000 Guineas by opposing the favourite in the 1,000. He’s looking to Big Break and Maureen.
SWISS SWITCH JUST FAILS AT HAYDOCK: He missed out on a big pay-day when his bet, Swiss Spirit (2nd 9-1) – hampered, not clear run, switched – was robbed of the Temple Stakes at Haydock.
BOOST FOR LIBERTARIAN: Magician and Libertarian were Daqman’s pick of the Classic trial winners and a good run by the Dante runner-up yesterday vindicated Daqman’s view of Libertarian. His staking plan meant that he finished marginally in front on Saturday (+ 1.50).
Firm ground changed results but not Ballydoyle’s domination of the Irish 2,000 Guineas yesterday. It was Aidan O’Brien’s ninth win in 19 years, as Magician revealed himself to be a top-class miler and maybe more. No mirrors. In fact, no magic about it unless you use that epithet to describe his power performance.
I thought the excellent run by Trading Leather put Libertarian firmly in the Classic picture. We know now that the Dante was no fluke of a race.
In fact, to measure Libertarian’s chance, you’d now be asking: was Magician’s Irish version as good as Dawn Approach’s Newmarket Guineas in terms of next Saturday’s Derby. There are some who’d say ‘better.’
But we may only have the Libertarian line to find out, and only on a collateral basis, since it will need another wave of the O’Brien wand to have Magician recover in time for the Derby.
It is such a shame that, in a year when the development of young horses was delayed by the bad winter, several late trials, and several colts and fillies only just now blooming, will have no bearing whatsoever on the Derby and the Oaks.
I can see the Irish Derby – Trading Leather is bred for it – and Royal Ascot being much more informative this season.
1.45 The Curragh Arguably the best bred horse of the day – including the 1,000 Guineas – is Sir John Hawkins, the Henrythenavigator second foal of dual Oaks winner Peeping Fawn.
He should land the hat-trick in this maiden for Aidan O’Brien and the Ballydoyle empire, on whom all eyes are focused, as ever, with betting wallets at the ready. But alarm bells are ringing two hours on from this.
2.40 Longchamp (Prix d’Ispahan) Sir Henry Cecil can land his second big pattern race in 24 hours if the French 1,000 winner Beauty Parlour, back on the soft ground she loves, takes this Group 1 after Chigun’s Group 3 at The Curragh yesterday.
2.45 The Curragh (Gallinule Stakes) Ballydoyle’s run of six consecutive Gallinule’s ended last year but Leading Light was odds-on favourite this morning to pick up the thread.
Leading Light’s seeming penchant for soft ground may count against him but, as usual in Ireland, we don’t have much sound-surface form to go on.
We do know that the sires of Einstein’s Folly and the filly with the masculine name, Private Alexander, get firm-ground winners a plenty, so taking an obvious place bet in this race may be a false move.
I shall try the colt, Einsteins Folly (27.0 the win on BETDAQ), as the surprise packet of the race, with three chances out of eight of getting a place.
Fighter Squadron has already finished nine or 10 lengths adrift of Leading Light and Little White Cloud, out of a Sadler s Wells mare, may need some cut.
But the unbeaten Sruthan, a gelding earmarked for the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot, could be anything. A son of Arakan who got champion miler Dick Turpin.
There’s very little proper punting action today, and we’ve been stacking it into the bank this month, so I’ll play my prejudice against horses with aids, and move against a soft-ground favourite wearing cheekpieces.
I’ll back Sruthan and place-bet Einsteins Folly but put Leading Light in trebles with Sir John Hawkins, Camelot and my Guineas pair.
3.20 The Curragh (Tattersalls Gold Cup) Camelot, just denied the Triple Crown last year, came back ring-rusty but his pacemaker, Windsor Palace, should take the sting out of Al Kazeem’s opposition here. A Ballydoyle prelude to the Guineas suite? I hear different music at 3.55.
3.55 The Curragh (Irish 1,000 Guineas) O’Brien has won this only five times (I say ‘only’) and history also tells us that the winner was already a recognized Group performer.
It means that Hanky Panky will need more O’Brien magic. But every other filly in the line-up can boast some kind of Group performance.
Winners either take advantage of a low draw – stalls 1 (three times) 4 and 6 have won in the decade – or they come round the field (11, 12, 14, 15). The middle seems to get sandwiched out of it.
That’s another black mark for Hanky Panky and it doesn’t do stablemate Just Pretending any favours – both are wearing the fashionable hood – and, in fact, Snow Queen is the choice of Joseph O’Brien.
But this one’s in visors! Any horse that needs any kind of aid to win a Classic will not carry my hardearned. It all shouts of the 1,000 Guineas ‘this one’s not for Ballydoyle.’
Richard Hannon trained Sky Lantern to beat Just The Judge (2nd) and Snow Queen (5th) in front of his own sixth-placed Maureen in the English 1,000 at Newmarket.
But Maureen drifted in the market, looking backward, and finished strongly. That she is in this race despite the leeway to make up suggests that she is ‘expected’ this time.
Just The Judge went with the pace that day and her being drawn 2 at The Curragh is a bonus for her style of running.
Big Break has defeat of Magician on her CV but only five fillies in 40 years have won this without an outing in their year, albeit one of them trained by yer man, Dermot Weld.
She has to come from the wide outside, whereas Viztoria is with Maureen and Just The Judge among the low drawn. But Viztoria has done all her winning on yielding-to-heavy ground and has a soft ground sire, so I can’t back her on firm today.
Sires with particular leanings toward a sound surface are represented by Big Break, Dubaya, Hanky Panky, Masarah, Mizzava, Rehn’s Nest and Uleabemebreathless. Big Break is a long way the pick of them.
I’m with the front of the market – 107% total in the BETDAQ orange – but reverse the order of betting for my order in: 1 Maureen, 2 Big Break, 3 Just The Judge, who will be the saver for bets on my 1-2.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET (to win 20) 5pts win SRUTHAN, plus 0.75pts win and 2pts place EINSTEIN’S FOLLY (2.45 The Curragh)
GOLD VALUE BETS: 5.3pts win BIG BREAK, 4.4pts win MAUREEN and 3.4pts win (stakes saver) JUST THE JUDGE (3.55 The Curragh)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 10pts win (nap) SIR JOHN HAWKINS (1.45 The Curragh), plus 7 x 2pt win trebles SIR JOHN HAWKINS (1.45 The Curragh), LEADING LIGHT (2.45 The Curragh), CAMELOT (3.20 The Curragh) and both BIG BREAK and MAUREEN (3.55 The Curragh).
DAQMAN’S TARGET: Only the value bets have a 30-point profit target. A poor day for punting. All you can do is take sides and have a flutter: I’m betting that Ballydoyle wins everything bar the 1,000 Guineas.
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