CAN THE FAVOURITE BE DOWNED AT DEAUVILLE? Defoe (WON 13-8) defied the trend for shocks yesterday after Daqman proclaimed: ‘Defoe is ready to show his stamina.’ Our man starts today 306 points ahead of Pricewise, with the scores 68-12 this Flat season. They clash again today in the 2.45 Deauville, when both tipsters find two to beat the favourite, So Mi Dar.
AND WILL SHE BE BEATEN IN BALLYDOYLE BATTLE? At The Curragh in Ireland, there’s a two-year-old test which has produced a host of smart fillies from the Ballydoyle camp. Has Ryan Moore chosen right? It’s another tilt against the favourite by Daqman. He dares nap it!
EMADEE FAR TOO BIG AT BETDAQ 8.6
2.10 The Curragh (Futurity Stakes) New Approach, Gleneagles and Churchill have won this in the decade but all three came to the race with two wins out of two since their maiden, racing off 107-109.
Only Camelback rated 97, has won consecutive races, and Theobald, second the last twice, has the highest mark with 103. So an ordinary year at best? (famous last words).
Rostropovich has twice been beaten by Camelback, and to see Aidan O’Brien resorting to a tongue-tie to try to close him down is not for the purists but
not untypical of the man.
Theobald has run up to two top Ballydoyle youngsters in The Pentagon and Actress, twice beating Berkeley Square in the process. The third O’Brien runner, Coat of Arms, has been beaten by both Camelback and Theobald, who I reckon could just about sneak it without wanting to have a bet on the outcome.
2.45 The Curragh Declarationofpeace runs off 107 here but the race is likely to produce sprinters not next year’s Classic contenders. Ger Lyons and Colin Keane won it back to back in 2014-15 but Treasuring was a long way adrift of Declarationofpeace when they met in the Spring.
Though you can never be sure how a two-year-old will perform second time out, Emadee was impressive at Naas, beating a subsequent winner here at The Curragh. Emadee’s pedigree is all speed. The 8.6 on BETDAQ this morning is far too big.
2.45 Deauville (Prix Jean Romanet) Four out of five for English raiders in this Group 1, and So Di Mar has switched from York next week to this lesser pot against weaker opposition.
I’m always nervous about comeback horses trying to get back into the old groove. She may do it, but it’s a rarity.
Sir Michael Stoute obviously thought So Mi Dar would go to York and give his six-year-old Smart Call the race. Ditto Roger Varian and Ajman Princess, who couldn’t even manage to win a Listed on the last day.
I’ll take 9.2 Smart Call, who must go close on the evidence of her proximity to Blond Me and Qemah at the York Dante meeting and then at Royal Ascot. Left Hand is an autumn mare (won the Vermeille last September) and could bounce back at 9.0
HE’S HAPPILY BACKING SEPTEMBER
3.20 The Curragh (Debutante Stakes) Past winners are a gallery of smart Ballydoyle fillies, among them Maybe, Rhododendron and Ballydoyle herself.
You wouldn’t have done too badly following the runners-up: Hydrangea (to Rhododendron) and Minding (to Ballydoyle)!
Today you would happily back one of the magical trio of O’Brien contenders, which we thought would be headed by the Chesham winner, September.
But Ryan Moore has apparently chosen the rapid improver, Happily, full sister to Gleneagles and Marvellous out of a sister to Giants Causeway. Oh brother! This looks like another one-two of future stars.
Happily also wears a tongue-tie and, if we are still not used to Aidan’s application of the aids, then here’s an example of how he uses them to straighten and encourage and give a filly confidence. She beat the same rival more than three lengths further between The Curragh and Leopardstown in her last two races.
But she didn’t do so well when they were first applied, in a maiden at Leopardstown in June. The winner that day – 10 lengths in front of her – was none other than September.
September’s runner-up in her subsequent Chesham at Royal Ascot was Nyaleti, who subsequently slammed Dance Diva five lengths in the Princess Margaret. I happily backed September at 2.7 on BETDAQ this morning. I felt that a decent investment was obligatory for the pleasure of taking part in this race. I’ll be tongue-tied if O‘Brien is beaten.
3.30 Deauville (Prix Morny) If September wins or goes close, we must be on Nyaleti for the Morny. This is her optimum trip, and she swerves the Lowther for this. Havana Grey and Different League are strong opposition but didn’t win their Group 3 by five lengths.
4.00 Pontefract Three-year-olds have managed to beat the four-year-olds just twice in the decade but it’s the best field since second-season flily Mince beat Ultra sonic in 2012.
Queen Kindly only just failed in a Group 3 at York, where she beat Roly Poly in the Lowther last year. The danger may be Rockfel winner Spain Burg, if back in the same form. Josephine Gordon is my favourite female rider.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points unless stated)
BET 2.5pts win and place EMADEE (2.45 The Curragh)
BET 2.5pts win on each LEFT HAND and SMART CALL (2.45 Deauville)
BET 12pts win (nap) SEPTEMBER (3.20 The Curragh)
BET 6pts win NYALETI (3.30 Deauville)
BET 10pts win QUEEN KINDLY and 3pts win SPAIN BURG (4.00 Pontefract)
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