GREAT LAKE’S ENABLED 305 PROFIT: She could be the new Enable. That was Daqman’s verdict yesterday after Lake Victoria took the Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket and sent FORTUNE COOKIES profit soaring to 305 points from 13 winners in 29 races, 20pts level stakes.
WON 6-4 LAKE VICTORIA FORTUNE COOKIE: Cheveley Park
(2nd 28-1 TOIMY SON from 32.0 on BETDAQ: Cambridgeshire)
MORE RAIN: MORE OUTSIDERS: The going is soft-heavy at Epsom (9.9 BETDAQ bet in the Apprentices Derby), good but with showers at the Curragh (15.5 among three bets in the Irish Cesarewitch).
A YOUNG MAN’S DREAMS..
⭕ 3.30 Epsom (Apprentices’ Derby): Top ‘boys’ to have won this include Oisin Murphy (2013) and Billy Loughnane (2023), proving the old adage that a big-time jockey comes along only once every 10 years.
Miller Spirit won the Jump Jockeys Derby here on heavy a couple of weeks back (Enochdu beaten favourite) but stablemate Mark of Gold has a record on soft of 1101, and Callum Hutchinson has ridden twice as many winners.
Their trainer Gary Moore won this three years running, 2016-19, two of them 14-1 SP, one older than Mark Of Gold.
Charlie Johnston’s Kingman filly Dreams Adozen is sent down from Middleham, with form figures on soft-heavy of 321212.
Placed 16 times from 22 turf starts, and with Archie Young’s form 1020212; three winners for this stable in the last two weeks.
Archie could be the new Franny Norton. He takes the ride today on 9.3 chance Qitaal (in the 4.05) on Franny’s final mount, an eight-lengths winner for Johnston on another turning track at Chester the last day.
BETDAQ Derby value: 4.1 Miller Spirit, 7.5 Mark of Gold, 9.9 Dreams Adozen
NURBURGRING READY FOR THIS
⭕ 4.25 Curragh (Irish Cesarewitch, 2m 1f): High numbers (18 and 21) are responsible for the last two winners at 5-1 and 150-1.
After yesterday’s about-turn in the Newmarket Cambridgeshire, where low numbers broke a long hold on the result by extreme-high stalls, we are wary.
With €324,000 to the winner, there’s a lot to be wary of in a 30-horse handicap and, whatever the pro punter tells you, you have no choice but to try to narrow the focus.
I’ll be saying more about the so-called pros who call out stats fans but the truth is they don’t generally bet in races like Cambridgeshire and Cesarewitch; and are happy to use stats and call them algorithms.
Last year’s winner was Magellan Strait but that was on soft ground, and he comes out of gate 9 this year, whereas he scored out of 21 last.
Willie Mullins has won this three times in nine seasons but Spasiba (2) and Plontier (10) may have to overcome a low draw; Bialystok (29) will appreciate the dry ground.
Nurburgring (13), who won the Galway Hurdle, was running on well at the end of a 1m 5f prep for this at Leopardstown. The Euphrates (27), who has been a front-runner in Group races over shorter, swaps visor for blinkers today.
Those two – along with Naqeeb and Sixandahalf – would come under the heading quality, which can be enumerated on form, but with all four requiring a notional evaluation for ‘potential’.
Why? Because they are aged three and four, still improving. How? By recognising the ability of their trainers: Aidan and Joseph O’Brien, William Haggas and Gavin Cromwell.
Horses aged three and four won six of the last eight runnings.. None carrying more than 9st.
Unless you are prepared to eliminate The Euphrates because he is 2lb over that limit – in so doing counting out Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore – you are still left with three: Nurburgring, Sixandahalf and The Euphrates.
If I feed in a jockey rating as an additional algorithm, I boost Nurburgring (Dylan Browne McGonagle) and The Euphrates with Moore, and introduce Colin Keane (on Zanndabad, drawn 16) into calculations.
In the Chester Cup on firm ground, the eight-year-old Zoffee had Zanndabad (not clear run) a length behind in third. They are in adjacent stalls, 16 and 17 today.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 6.4 Nurburgring, 7.9 The Euphrates, 15.5 Zanndabad
DAQMAN’S BETS
3.30 Epsom (win total 25)
BET 2.5pts win and place DREAMS ADOZEN
4.05 Epsom (win total 10)
BET 1pt win and place QITAAL
4.25 Curragh (win-50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 9pts win NURBURGRING (nap)
BET 3.5pts win ZANNDABAD
BET 2pts win (stakes saver) THE EUPHRATES
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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