IT’S A VERACIOUS VERDICT: STICK TO YOUR GUNS: It remains a hard life for punters. Do you splash out on outsiders – they had 28-1, 33-1 and 66-1 Saturday winners – or concentrate the mind on ‘good things’, knowing the likely outcome as illustrated yesterday: Global Giant is beaten, better than evens on BETDAQ but odds on SP, yet Veracious, expected to be long odds on, defies the market and wins well at odds against. The answer, says Daqman, is stick to your principles to come good.
DAQMAN TIPS CROSS-CHANNEL O’BRIEN DOUBLE: There’s a quartet of cracking races today at Deauville (Group 1), the Curragh (Group 1 and Group 3) and Salisbury (Group 3). Daqman’s nap is at the Curragh and he forecasts a cross-Channel double for Aidan O’Brien.
Headlines
🔹 WICHITA LOOKS WORTHY OUTSIDER
🔹 ST MARK’S TO MAKE IT SEVENTEEN
🔹 DIAMOND SHINES FROM THE FRONT
🔹 PHOENIX IS ALL GRIST TO MILLISLE
WICHITA LOOKS WORTHY OUTSIDER
⭕ 2.50 Deauville (Prix Maurice de Gheest) Earthlight had a setback in the early part of this year, and the Caborg, Morny and Middle Park winner consecutively did not get back on track until taking a Listed here at Deauville last month, looking his old self again.
Three-year-olds are going for a hat-trick in the race (6.5f) with a trio of top raiders from England and Ireland, trying to follow up last year’s 1-2-3 of Advertise, Brando and Space Blues.
The market puts Clive Cox’s Commonwealth Cup winner, Golden Horde, at the head of the party. He was beaten only a neck by Earthlight in the Middle Park, but disappointed against older horses in the July Cup.
Lope Y Fernandez, seemingly Ryan Moore’s pick for Aidan O’Brien over Wichita, was third to Siskin in the Irish Guineas and second to Pinatubo in the Prix Jean Prat.
Wichita was beaten just a neck by Kameko in the Newmarket 2,000 Guineas, after taking over at today’s trip, and tried to make all at Royal Ascot, losing out in the St James’s Palace Stakes by little more than a length.
If that is the colt that lines up today he would have an outstanding chance under Frankie Dettori but his last run, in the Sussex Stakes, was a strange affair: an entire novel was written in excuses for his finishing only fifth.
Try this for a string of negatives: went wide, pushed along, edged right (twice), struck into; irregular heartbeat; lost right-hind shoe, finished lame.
Verdict: Wichita has had an off day before (well beaten on soft in the Dewhurst) but in plein soleil at Deauville today, anywhere near a repeat of his Guineas second could outrun the sprinters (remember today is 6.5 furlongs).
Wichita’s sire, No Nay Never, last year got Ten Sovereigns, fifth in the Guineas, a winner dropped back to the 6f of the July Cup, beating none other than Advertise.
Despite Deauville’s reputation as a speed track, the Aidan O’Brien pair seem certain to make this a 7f contest and Earthlight, once Guineas favourite, is another who will benefit, along with Space Blues, improved from last year.
Order in: 1 Wichita (14.0 taken), 2 Earthlight (2.5), 3 Space Blues (6.5), 4 Lope Y Fernandez (12.0).
ST MARK’S TO MAKE IT SEVENTEEN
⭕ 3.10 The Curragh (Phoenix Stakes) A turnkey race, with Caravaggio (2016), Advertise (2018) and Siskin (2019) all winning it in the last six seasons.
Aidan O’Brien, who has taken the Phoenix 16 times, saddles three today, all outsiders and none ridden by Ryan Moore, who is wanted for Lope Y Fernandez at Deauville.
St Mark’s Basilica is half-brother to the stable’s Guineas winner Magna Graecia. Admiral Nelson won his maiden but flopped in two Group races below today’s level. Giorgio Vasari looked a pacesetter when he won in lower grade.
The Lir Jet, who had Ventura Tormenta more than six lengths behind in the Norfolk at Royal Ascot, was turned over at 5-2 on by the same colt in the furlong-further Robert Papin at Chantilly.
Steel Bull also takes in the extra furlong today after storming up the hill in the Molecomb at Goodwood. His pedigree says he’ll be best at the minimum. I took 8.4 on BETDAQ St Mark’s Basilica.
DIAMOND SHINES FROM THE FRONT
⭕ 3.25 Salisbury (Sovereign Stakes) Eight out of 10 in the decade have been won by horses aged three or four, with Clive Cox the leading trainer, having back-to-back winners 2015-16, both three-year-olds.
Cox today saddles another second-season colt, Positive, blinkered for the first time. The horse that ran second to Pinatubo, beat Kameko at Sandown around this time last year, became a ‘thinker’; that’s why the blinkers.
After two Group-1 flops, he now drops to this Group 3, and returns to the fast conditions of his victory over Kameko.
It was blinkers set Duke Of Hazzard on his hat-trick a year or so back. He won a Group 2, the Ladbrokes Celebration Mile at Goodwood, and this year has placed in both the Celebration Mile at Ascot and the Lennox Stakes at Goodwood again (Marie’s Diamond behind).
Regal Reality is another who has to bounce back and another given the blinds to help; he is now visored, dropping down to a Group 3 for the first time since he won one in May, 2019.
Buckingham Palace Handicap and Bunbury Cup winner Motakhayyel has just a pound more than for the last of them so could still go for a handicap but has clearly progressed to this pattern level.
Bless Him beat Lord North in an Ascot handicap last autumn but has failed to make the transition to the pattern, and has not reached the frame at any level this year. Beat Le Bon has also slipped off the ladder.
Verdict: Marie’s Diamond, third in the Queen Anne, but disappointing since, could bounce back as a front-runner in this. Regal Reality has been primed for the race. Both are around 10.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
PHOENIX IS ALL GRIST TO MILLISLE
⭕ 3.40 The Curragh (Phoenix Sprint) Older horse are a poor 1-13, and I shall stand with Millisle, champion two-year-old filly who bounced back in the Ballyogan. At 2.4 in BETDAQ this morning, she rates a supernap.
Forever In Dreams, a long way behind that day, had been headed by the 2018 winner of this, Speak In Colours, at The Curragh before that one went clear over 7f at Fairyhouse, beating last year’s Phoenix Sprint winner, Gustavus Weston.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.30 Thirsk (win 10)
BET 2.25pts win ABATE
2.50 Deauville (win 50, win 10)
BULL’S-EYE BET 3.8pts win WICHITA
BET 6.5pts win EARTHLIGHT
3.10 The Curragh (win 20)
BET 2.75pts win ST MARK’S BASILICA
3.25 Salisbury (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET 5pts win MARIES DIAMOND
BULL’S-EYE BET 5pts win REGAL REALITY
3.40 The Curragh (supernap)
BET 20pts win MILLISLE
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