BIG RACE 1-2-3-4 EASY AS ABC: Daqman’s ABC guide to the Derby had the 1-2-3-4 among his ‘A’ list of six but he had a tough day with his final verdicts: Chic Columbine hampered, beaten a neck (2nd 11-4, nap, 5.6 on BETDAQ), Sturlasson (2nd 17-2 from 10.5 on BETDAQ), Looking For Lynda (3rd 17-2) and Los Angeles (3rd 6-1). Columbine was bidding for Daqman”s third nap out of four after 3-1 on Wednesday, 7-2 Friday.
O’BRIEN BID FOR DERBY DOUBLE: When is a horse a good thing but also a shock winner? When it wins a Classic for Aidan O’Brien. Daqman discusses the punter’s predicament as O’Brien lines up another Derby in France today, after City of Troy took the Epsom Derby field apart.
LOOK! ANOTHER DERBY WINNER
⭕ 3.05 Chantilly (Prix Du Jockey Club, 1m 2f) He’s virtually invincible in the Derby with five winners in eight years; he is on 63 strikes this season with €2million already stashed away for his elite owners’ groups.
He defies the stats by beating such vagaries as the draw and you never know whether a three-year-old is as good as his trial or will find a stone from it.
No, not Aidan O’Brien, the master of Ballydoyle, winning the Derby from stall one with City Of Troy after another Guineas given away, but Jean-Claude Rouget, the doyen of Pau, whose French Derby winner last year, Ace Impact, was a world-beater in the Arc.
As a punter you can follow them blind, with the Racing Post or Paris Turf your fanzine, or you can suffer the indignity of hours assessing the form, trying to defy a meritocracy with a bet on seeming merit.
Today you are asked by English layers to believe that around 3-1 is value for O’Brien’s Diego Velazquez, beaten only a length, outpaced fourth, in the French Guineas.
Or you can take 33-1 about one of the Rouget runners where all three – Grecian Storm (10), Diego Velazquez (11) and Arrow Eagle (14) – are seriously badly drawn out in the bois! Winning stalls last five seasons: 5, 3, 2, 2, 8.
There is no evidence from his form or breeding that Clive Cox’s Ghostwriter, can score on the very soft ground for in-form Richard Kingscote but stall 2 is encouraging.
David Menuisier’s Sunway (8 stall today) was driven past Andre Fabre’s odds-on Alcantor (7 stall here) in the one-mile Criterium at Saint–Cloud on very soft last year.
Alcantor was third in the French Guineas and Sunway was beaten only a neck in the Greffulhe trial there a month back, with Oisin Murphy riding every time, including today.
Alcantor, whose dam’s side goes back to the mighty Treve, is better equipped on pedigree for today’s trip, though he’s wearing a hood, which is off-putting.
Out of 5 here, Fast Tracker stormed seven lengths clear of Dollar Index on today’s course recently, turning over the fourth horse home in that Criterium.
Look De Vega has not yet been highly tried, but his sire, Lope De Vega, won this Derby as an outsider on soft ground in 2010. He must get a second look, drawn in 3.
Will there be another magic ride from Ryan Moore or will the top two French jockeys hold him off? Maxime Guyon (104 winners this term) on Sosie from the one stall for Andre Fabre or Cristian Demuro (77 winners) on Arrow Eagle for the Rouget stable.
Why not a jockey who’s won more money than any riding here, Ronan Thomas, who took two million-dollar races in Riyadh on First Classs inside a month in 2022. His ride is Look de Vega.
For those of you bent on backing an outsider, Sosie and Arrow Eagle were one-two, well clear, in their trial at Longchamp in April: 14.5 and 48.0 this morning.
DAQMAN’S 1-2-3 at Betdaq Betting Exchange offers: 7.4 Look De Vega, 4.6 Diego Velazquez, 5.2 Fast Tracker.
DOYLE GETS PIECE OF THE ACTION
⭕ 1.05 Chantilly (2yo Listed, 5f) Very soft at Chantilly, which should be perfect for a son of Mayson, who won the July Cup on heavy.
The name’s Francisco’s Piece, James Doyle up for Yorkshire trainer Adrian Paul Keatley, who has scored with him at Pontefract (soft).
Convo has already won on heavy for Amy Murphy but was a disappointing (joint) favourite on soft the last day. Ducked left at the start, then ran too freely.
Hard to pick the best home defender from Allee De Bercy and Cendre, separated a short-neck at Chantilly earlier this month.
BUICK HAS GOLIATH OF A RIDE..
⭕ 2.20 Chantilly (Grand Prix, 1m 4f) It’s a long time since Dubai Honour won the 10-furlong Dollar at Longchamp for William Haggas (October 2021, very soft), and his form since includes two attempts at 1m 4f, finishing 02.
Karl Burke’s Al Qareem gets further. Winner of the 2022 Chaudenay (1m 7f, Longchamp, very soft) and the 2023 Cumberland Lodge at Ascot before second twice, one on heavy, finding Hamish too good in both the St Simon and the John Porter.
What makes this hard to have a bet in is the presence of three Andre Fabre runners, best of which could be Marquisat, second as a three-year-old to the prolific Iresine in October, with Junko third.
William Buick rides Goliath, winner of four out of six, no higher than Group 3, with form tying in with another Fabre runner, Galashiels.
KING’S TO CASH IN FOR BALDING
⭕ 5.10 Hamilton (5f handicap) So strong is the low-draw bias that single-figure stalls are marked up in the market, so rarely value for money.
Jm Jungle (3) is 1322 at Hamilton and the Quinns won a Group 3 at Epsom yesterday. He’s got a lot of weight for back-to-back wins in the summer.
American Affair (4) has been punished severely (10lb) for winning a class 4 at Musselburgh, so he’s up two grades with an 80 rating.
Andrew Balding’s King’s Lynn (5) hasn’t scored for two years but has dropped a stone in the ratings, though it still means he’s saddled with 9st 12lb in this grade. BETDAQ 7.4
How well might Makanah (1) have done had he worn a visor when within two or three lengths of the winner in big-field handicaps over the years? He’s down 10lb and, by Mayson, should enjoy the cut in the ground, yet 20.0 offers this morning.
WARDA JAMILA HAMILTON BEST
⭕ 5.40 Hamilton (1m 1f handicap) Andrew Balding is taking this meeting seriously, with – as well as Kings Lynn and two others – he has Warda Jamila trying to back up a comfortable win at Ascot. BETDAQ 2.96
She has Star Jasmine and Cloudy Skye to beat, though Strong Impact should appreciate the step up in trip, after finishing well over a mile at Ascot.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.05 Chantilly (win 12, French nap)
BET 8pts win FRANCISCOS PIECE
2.20 Chantilly (win-50 bull’s-eye bet)
BET 7.75pts win LOOK DE VEGA
BET to win 30 8pts win DIEGO VELAZQUEZ
5.10 Hamilton (win 30)
BET 4.75pts win KING’S LYNN
BET 1.5pts win MAKANAH
5.40 Hamilton (win 12, GB nap)
BET 6pts win WARDA JAMILA
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