BALLYDINE A BETDAQ TREAT AT 7.0: A fourth consecutive supernap yesterday followed on Friday’s best bet with Planet Nine (WON 11-2) but, with so many ‘good things’ beaten, Daqman’s only break after that was the big value on BETDAQ about Ballydine. Saturday winners:
WON 4-1 BALLYDINE (from 7.0 on BETDAQ)
WON 5-6 COUNTISTER (supernap)
WON 4-9 FOOTPAD
DAY TWO OF THE DUBLIN FESTIVAL: In the value challenge, Ballydine took Daqman into a 17-7 lead for winners over Pricewise of the Racing Post as they square up this afternoon for the second day of the Dublin Festival at Leopardstown. He’s 55 points clear at SP (+ 44 to – 11)
ALLETRIX CONTINGENCY PLAN..
12.40 Leopardstown (Paddy Mullins Mares Handicap Hurdle) Lofted to Grade B, and renamed after the 10 times Irish champion trainer, who saddled Dawn Run to win both Champion Hurdle and Gold Cup at Cheltenham.
Willie Mullins is stating the obvious when he says of this tribute to his father: ‘It’s a race we’d love to win.’
But following Willie’s quotes before a race need a lot of reading between the lines. Before yesterday’s huge gamble was landed by Patricks Park, he told the Racing Post: ‘Is dropping in trip after a moderate effort on his first start for us.
‘He jumps well and it won’t be a surprise if he improves on what he did last time.’ Improves, Willie! This class-4-only winner in England took off!
He tells the Post of his mares’ handicap runners: ‘Merie Devie faces a big task off top weight. Claiming 7lb off Court Artist should put her in with a decent chance, while Contingency could be well treated in her first handicap.’
In fact, the 4.0 BETDAQ offer Contingency will have to do a Patricks Park and take a big leap forward – her 2-2 over hurdles were gained in moderate company – but is that what’s hidden between the lines?
The money overnight was for Alletrix (BETDAQ 7.4), whose recent Fairyhouse Grade-3 second hiked her rating just enough to get her into this race. Classy, by Flemensfirth out of an Old Vic mare.
One of few brave Englishmen to raid this festival, Harry Fry puts a tongue-tie and a claiming rider on his Taunton winner Canelie. That’s a double squeeze, hoping to get more out of her. I think it’s Fairy liquid.
FARCLAS TO STOP THE FAVOURITE
1.15 Leopardstown (Spring Juvenile Hurdle) Seven-year winners of this have produced a Triumph Hurdle winner, two runners-up and two thirds, and it could be on the premises again at Cheltenham in March.
BETDAQ Triumph Hurdle betting has today’s runners Espoir Dallen at 7.8, Farclas 13.5, Mr Adjudicator 21.0 and Mitchouka 39.0 (though as low as 14-1 in two places with bookmakers on Oddschecker).
It’s the same market order for today’s trial, in line with the result of the juvenile hurdle at Leopardstown on Boxing Day when Espoir D’Allen (1.96 this morning) beat Farclas, Mitchouka and Grey Waters.
That was Farclas’ first try at hurdles and, assuming he wasn’t punished and that he will improve considerably for the race, I took BETDAQ’S 3.4 this morning that he might overtake the sequence winner. That’s what happens at this time of year.
CRACK SAMCRO THE SUPERNAP
1.50 Leopardstown (Deloitte Novice Hurdle) Willie Mullins tries to hit six winners in a row in this one with four, two of them, Sharjah and Real Steel, fallers on the last day when disputing the lead at the final flight here for the Future Champions.
Whiskey Sour won it but would have finished only third had they stood up, Le Richebourg was second but 19 lengths away.
But the way Jetz ran a head second in yesterday’s Grade 1 suggests that his 12-lengths Navan conqueror, Samcro is everything he’s cracked up to be.
Mind’s Eye won twice after the unbeaten Samcro slammed him 15 lengths at Punchestown in the autumn. Supernap.
2.25 Leopardstown In theory, Total Recall, 31lb lower than his chase mark, should totally annihilate these.
While Delta Work was let down by Fabulous Saga yesterday Flawless Escape got a mighty boost from Tower Bridge, whom he beat into fourth here at Leopardstown over Christmas.
But Flawless was friendless in the markets overnight and even handicapper A Great View had overtaken him in some places, both hovering around 9.3 on BETDAQ as I write. It all suggested that the favourite was beyond recall at 2.25.
3.00 Leopardstown Willie Mullins (six) and Noel Meade (two of the last three) have had this race to themselves. Today they share five of the six market leaders this morning!
I put Al Boum Photo in my Fortune Cookies and, because of was a last-day faller, I can get 9.6 on BETDAQ. You need the place insurance in a novices’ chase.
WING AND A PRAYER ON FLY
3.35 Leopardstown (Irish Gold Cup) Before the gold double last year by Sizing John, only Sir Des Champs (second in 2013) made any impression in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
If you want to try to get some ante-post ‘overs’ on BETDAQ betting for the 2018 Gold Cup from contenders in today’s Irish equivalent, choose from 9.8 Our Duke, 14.5 Minella Rocco, 15.5 Killultagh Vic, 19.0 Anibale Fly, 30.0 Valseur Lido, 34.0 Djakadam, 41.0 Outlander.
How the nearly-mighty Djakadam has fallen from grace: he’s an easy 8.8 for this afternoon, after being pulled up over Christmas. He’s won only at Punchestown in the last three years, which tells much of the story of where his abilities, and failings, lie.
Irish Grand National winner Our Duke was beaten in a novice chase at this meeting a year ago, and Killultagh Vic has raced only once, won only once, in two years.
I’ve chosen Anibale Fly for my horses to follow as a chaser on the upgrade, and I’m willing to spend a couple of pounds at 7.2 to prove that this is a weak renewal.
4.10 Leopardstown Welcome back to this column’s ace money-maker Cause Of Causes, who won three times at the Cheltenham Festival (NH Chase, Kim Muir and Cross Country).
He’s been absent since he was runner-up in the Aintree Grand National, and 41.0 on BETDAQ this morning may be his ‘real’ odds today.
With the occasional exception to the rule, you need to be 11st or lower with an improver between seven and nine, from which I fancy Graded-placed novice Jett (18.5), who won’t find any Footpad in this.
DAQMAN’S BETS
12.40 Leopardstown (win 20)
BET 6.5pts win CONTINGENCY
BET 3pts win ALLETRIX
1.15 Leopardstown (win 20, double whammy)
BET 8.25pts win FARCLAS
LAY (at evens or less) ESPOIR D’ALLEN
1.50 Leopardstown (SP)
SUPERNAP: BET 20pts win SAMCRO
2.25 Leopardstown (SP)
SUPERNAP: BET 20pts win TOTAL RECALL
3.00 Leopardstown (win 20)
BET 2.25pts win AL BOUM PHOTO
3.35 Leopardstown (win 20)
BET 3.5pts win ANIBALE FLY
4.10 Leopardstown (win 30)
BET 1.75pts win and place JETT
BET 1pt win and place CAUSE OF CAUSES
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