IT’S BIG-RACE WIN NUMBER 101: Daqman was straight off the mark yesterday for another 100 wins against Pricewise. After his ton-up with Estimate (WON 11-8) in the Doncaster Cup, the challenge in two races on Leger day produced one winner: Daqman, of course. He tipped Muthmir (WON 3-1) in the Portland.
BULL’S-EYE BET 203 POINTS UP: Muthmir, which he named at 6.1 on BETDAQ, scored in record time on the first day that both his new high-target bets ran, one to win 100 points (Ton Up), one to win 50 (Bull’s-Eye). It was the Bull’s-Eye Bet which won, taking its total profit to 203 points.
ARC TRIALS AND IRISH LEGER: Now here’s a double Sunday feast from Paris and Dublin of Longchamp Arc Trials day and the Irish St Leger meeting at The Curragh. Daqman and Pricewise both tip in the 1.30 and 3.55 Longchamp and the 3.40 at The Curragh. The score is 101-36 to Daqman.
GOSDEN HAS THE ANSWER TO TREVE
1.30 Longchamp (Prix Niel) This race has had a terrific Arc-winning record in the last 20 years, with Carnegie, Helissio, Sagamix, Montjeu, Sinndar, Dalakhani, Hurricane Run and Rail Link all going on to Triomphe! But none has done the double for seven years now.
The champion trainers of Europe are out to change all that today: Andre Fabre has won it 10 times since 1984, Aidan O’Brien just the once with Soldier Of Fortune (2007).
But the spotlight is on the Tunisian-born Elie Lellouche, who successfully took the Niel-Arc double in 1996 with Helissio, and now saddles Ectot, son of a Niel-Arc-double winner, Hurricane Run.
Ectot won the Saint-cloud Criterium to make it four in a row last season but he’s been seen just the once this year, pipping the subsequent French 2,000 Guineas hero, Karakontie, in their April trial.
It’s a long time since April in Paris, and Ectot is a nervous bet for punters. We’ve just seen Sea The Moon disappear from the Arc scene, losing out last weekend after a ‘not fully fit’ warning and it’s a ‘not yet 100%’ cloud that hangs over Ectot this afternoon.
On the other hand, Free Eagle came back at Leopardstown yesterday after a year off and Ectot clearly goes well when fresh, as he showed in April.
Both Elliptique and Teletext are also reappearing after absence and both fall down on the stats in that neither has won a Group 1. All Niel winners this century had already done so.
The Group-1 winners, as well as Ectot, are Adelaide and Gallante, though Adelaide’s was in fact a Grade 1 on fast ground in America, the Arlington Secretariat Stakes, and Gallante’s was a Grand Prix De Paris run in mud (Teletext third).
They have met before this season, Adelaide finishing in front of Gallante on his seasonal debut when Gallante had already had a run, and Adelaide’s 5.8 on BETDAQ this morning looks tempting on today’s sound surface as the only one to have raced in the last 50 days.
2.45 Longchamp (Prix Vermeille) The Arc fortunes of Prix Vermeille winners had dipped since the heady days of Allez France and Three Troikas, but Zarkava (2008) and Treve last year restored the fillies’ former glory as two of 11 three-year-olds to win this trial in the century so far.
Not allowing for improvement among them, Treve is a stone in front of her rivals as she makes her third comeback attempt this season after a sputtering start and then a back injury.
Her trainer admits she is not the same filly as last year, yet she is favourite for the Arc because another of her sex, Taghrooda, was beaten in the Yorkshire Oaks. So is there the required improvement from among her rivals today?
John Gosden can answer that. Twice. Yes to Sultanina, winner of the Group-1 Nassau Stakes, and yes to Pomology, who beat her on soft ground in the Lancashire Oaks. The BETDAQ offers of 5.8 and 8.6 mean that I can dutch them at an overall odds against and have two chances of stuffing the odds-on shot.
3.25 Longchamp (Prix Foy) We haven’t had a Foy winner do the double in the Arc of the same year since Allez France (1974) and Sagace (1984), though three Foy losers went on to Arc glory.
3.55 Longchamp (Prix Du Moulin) They don’t win this older than five. Three-year-olds have shared the prize with older horses (10-10) since 1994.
Team Hannon makes it tricky for punters by running both Toronado and Night Of Thunder, the only horse ever to have beaten Kingman (Newmarket 2,000 Guineas).
Subsequently, Night Of Thunder was well beaten by Kingman at levels at Royal Ascot, whereas Toronado finished within a length of him, giving 8lb, in the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood, though always going to be overtaken by the Kingman swoop.
But, as the Racing Post points out, the Hannons have a poor record with 19 losers from 20 Group-1 starters at Longchamp. Such a blight on their great horses suggests that their travel arrangements could be to blame (taking them too soon, too late; check it out, Richard!)
Charm Spirit, only fifth in Night Of Thunder’s Guineas, has won the Jean Prat (very soft) since but a line through the third, Shifting Power, suggests he still has something to find with the Hannon pair. Bawina is on the upgrade but has to step up from Group 3.
At 9.8 on BETDAQ this morning, I shall take sides with Esoterique. She has twice beaten the Stoute Group-1 performer, Integral, and has left her form of last season well behind this year. There’s a place market on BETDAQ, so I can cover my win stake.
LEGER DAY: BEHOLD A PALE RIDER
2.05 The Curragh (Bold Lad Sprint) My Good Brother won from stall 11 last year and has had the luck of the draw again with 13 this time. Just a tickle at 46.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
2.40 The Curragh (Blandford Stakes) Three-year-olds have dominated this in the last seven years, leading the four-year-old winners by 5-2 but Sir Michael Stoute has won it with all ages: Red Bloom when aged four and five (2005-6) and Eleanora Duse aged three (2010).
You need something that’s won any Group race or been in the frame in a Group 1 (9 out of 10), so the winner should come from Chicquita, Mago Diva or Tarfasha, who fills the new criteria for my Early Mouse bet.
3.40 The Curragh (Moyglare Stud Stakes) Aidan O’Brien has won this four times in nine years but only Misty For Me (Irish 1,000 Guineas) went to the very top.
On the other hand, English success in the last two seasons has come with the subsequent Newmarket 1,000 Guineas winner and Coronation Stakes star Sky Lantern and another Coronation scorer, the courageous Rizeena, narrowly beaten in a Group 1 at Leopardstown last night.
And favourite for England today is Cursory Glance from the St Leger celebrating yard of Roger Varian. Albany winner and Lowther runner-up (when the Queen Mary winner was third), she now tries 7f for the first time.
Though the dam’s side likes soft ground, Galileo’s daughter, the supplemented Found, scored on firm on the debut and ‘could be anything’ for Ballydoyle, which also runs three more exposed sorts in the race.
Nine times out of 10, the winner of this has had between three and seven starts already, so Found would have to be exceptional to win.
My choice is Malabar, who ‘is a different horse’, having won twice since her defeat by Cursory Glance in the Albany, and trainer Mick Channon is having a terrific season.
Her 9.2 to Cursory Glance’s 2.4 is enough for me to bet she can make up the difference and, again, I can get place money if she doesn’t quite make it which will cover my win stake.
4.15 The Curragh (National Stakes) Refuse To Bend, George Washington and Dawn Approach won the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket, Mastercraftsman the Irish Guineas, and New Approach the Epsom Derby, all launched from this race in the decade.
4.50 The Curragh (Irish St Leger) Dermot Weld (3) and Aidan O’Brien (2) have been largely responsible for keeping the prize in Ireland eight times in 12 years.
Between them here they have two of the most progressive horses in training in Leading Light and Pale Mimosa, who is a late improver, beating the Doncaster Cup winner, Estimate, in the Lonsdale Cup at York.
Pale Mimosa needed the race when third to Leading Light in the Spring and it’s a big ask to turn around the form but 6.0 on BETDAQ with tips on Leading Light means I can take a punt and not lose my money.
EARLY MOUSE SNIFFS OUT THE MONEY
The Early Mouse bet has had a dozen winners in a week, naming for you the strongest morning favourites on BETDAQ. In doing so, results have pointed up a key indicator.
Since this winning element was also the feature of the research which prompted the Early Mouse bet, I am now making it the central theme. The bet will now name all NEW favourites within its original framework. It will work like this.
A horse is backed if it was NOT the paper forecast favourite but has taken over as market leader on BETDAQ at around 10.30 a.m. It must have only one other horse close up in the betting (I will continue with the 7.0 bar two criterion).
* TOMORROW: I will check out all my bets for you tomorrow. I like us to known where we stand.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 4pts win (nap) ADELAIDE (1.30 Longchamp)
BET 0.4pts win and place MY GOOD BROTHER (2.05 The Curragh)
BET 4pts win POMOLOGY and 2.7pts win SULTANINA (2.45 Longchamp)
BET 2.4pts win and place MALABAR (3.40 The Curragh)
BET 2.2pts win and place ESOTERIQUE (3.55 Longchamp)
BET 4pts win on each PALE MIMOSA and (saver) LEADING LIGHT (4.50 The Curragh)
EARLY MOUSE: 10pts win TARFASHA (2.40 (The Curragh)
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