WINNER OR SECOND IN EVERY RACE: Daqman had an acey-deucy day yesterday, tipping winner or second in every one of six selected races, taking his total number of winners in eight days to 14, including three winning naps from the last five. Results in time order:
1️⃣ WON 8-11 BRAVEMANSGAME (Fortune Cookie)
2️⃣ 2ND 15-2 COEUR DE LION (bull’s-eye bet)
1️⃣ WON 10-11 EDWARDSTONE (Fortune Cookie, nap)
2️⃣ 2ND 2-1 ROYAL PAGAILLE (Fortune Cookie)
1️⃣ WON 9-4 FUNAMBULE SIVOLA
2️⃣ 2ND 12-1 I LIKE TO MOVE IT (bull’s-eye bet) beaten a short-head
🌟 FORTUNE COOKIES now 14 out of 20
🌟 DAQMAN 28, PRICEWISE 15
NEXT WEEK is all about the Grand National with the weights due out on Tuesday. Daqman previews the weights and analyses the handicapper’s verdict. Look out on Tuesday and Wednesday
FORTUNE FAVOURS THE BRAVE
Welcome back, Paul Nicholls. It was a brave man’s game coming in from the cold and running his eponymous hero off the top of the handicap.
But, after weeks in the doldrums and with only a 3% strike rate instead of the usual 23%, Ditcheat ditched their hoodoo via a champion performance from Bravemansgame at Newbury yesterday.
You can’t say he didn’t put a foot wrong – he did; once – but he emerged from the stable cloud to potentially set up a Cheltenham Festival match to savour with Galopin Des Champs, the Irish ace.
Jumping is his forte and jockey Harry Cobden made that the test, reversing the waiting game when held up and challenging Ahoy Senor two out at Kempton to win the Kauto Star.
Now the debate begins: is ‘Braveman’ a flat-track horse; will he be so smart over the Cheltenham fences; what will Willie Mullins plot against him with Galopin Des Champs?
Tomorrow Daqman’s weekend wrap and Fortune Cookies update
THIS IS ROSES OR FLOUEUR’S
⭕ 2.40 Punchestown (Grand National Trial) The only trial is for punters struggling to find the winner.
The result has no bearing on the Grand Nationals of England or Ireland, unless you laid Dounikos (the 2019 winner) in his two subsequent appearances at Aintree, and collected when he pulled up in both.
I saw an article in one of those chancer’s tipping blogs headlined: ‘Whatever happened to Davy Russell?’ It was he who won at 12-1 on Dounikos.
And Davy, who is 43 in June, has himself provided the answer, back in the big time with a flood of New Year winners, including a February run of five for Gordon Elliott which took in the Dublin Festival, and saw him deflate the Irish Gold Cup favourites with Conflated at 18-1.
Today Davy rides Floueur, third in the Martin Pipe at Cheltenham in March to a certain Galopin des Champs and recent winner of a tough beginners’ chase at Fairyhouse. Will he get the marathon trip today?
No problem at all for The Big Dog, winner of this race last year, also on the soft, but carrying almost a stone more now. Rated 8lb higher but racing under 11st 10lb, up from 10st 11lb.
Coko Beach (also trained Gordon Elliott) won the Thyestes on heavy just over a year ago, and then completed his novice career with a Grade-2 strike at Navan. That put him up to 150 and he’s struggled with the 12lb imposition ever since.
Death Duty (aged 11 and out of form) and Torygraph complete an Elliott quartet, with Torygraph interesting now up in trip, after being well supported over shorter in three autumn non-handicaps.
Doctor Duffy is up the handicap alongside Coko Beach and The Bog Dog, still paying for his Mayo National winner and Kerry National third in the autumn of 2020, though he’s claimed off and so below his mark for that race.
Two of the market leaders are owned by J P McManus, both rated 136: Champagne Platinum (Enda Bolger) has a second go at fences after some useful hurdles form for Nicky Henderson last Spring; the one-time Kim Muir seventh (2020) was back to form over fences at Navan last month.
Alfa Mix, yet to win a chase from six attempts, is to be addled by Gavin Cromwell, who is in as deep a trough as was Paul Nicholls; currently showing 0-35.
The Dabbler has already figured in a marathon, runner-up in the Porterstown, when Willie Mullins sole runner in this, Stones And Roses, was fourth. Stones is better off today and with the ground now in his favour.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 6.0 Floueur, 9.0 Stones And Roses
TIME IS RIGHT FOR DESTINEE
One in a million! Venetia Williams has trained a February flood of nine winners already (at a 29% strike rate) and needs just four more to hit the 50 mark for the season.
Her £1m total prizemoney won is made up of 90% from chases, which show a level-stakes profit to punters of 38 points if you backed every one of 147 runners.
That means she’s winning with alternatives to the obvious, the ones overlooked in the market, and maybe today is no exception.
⭕ 4.00 Exeter Snow Leopardess won a ferocious battle for the Becher Chase over the Grand National fences and has been given 71 days to get over it but those fences change a horse and I’ll wait for Aintree.
Henry Daly and Harry Fry (Momella) have each won this race, and Henry’s Chilli Filli was 10 lengths in front of Momella at levels at Newbury, also more than two months back.
Venetia Williams runs Kapga de Lily up 10lb for an autumn double, so I think the yard is expecting a revival for Destinee Royale, with Charlie Deutsch sticking with her.
Charlie won on her two Februarys running, by 34 lengths at Market Rasen, then when upped to 3m at Wetherby, both on soft. Though beaten over further since, she was hot in the market each time.
BETDAQ value 4.8 Chilli Filli and 7.2 Destinee Royale
TIZZARD GIVEN ESCAPE ROUTE
⭕ 4.30 Exeter Belami Des Pictons is another likely to return to form for Venetia’ Williams but he hasn’t won for five years. Jerrysback hasn’t won for four years, and Aso for three.
Run To Milan has been well held in four starts upped from novice company, and Encounter A Giant is very in and out; the market will help.
But another trainer just hit form, with three winners in two days, is Colin Tizzard, and – though also trying to win for the first time in years – Elegant Escape has been given a big chance at the weights.
One-time Welsh National winner and twice Ladbrokes Trophy placed, he put in a good run in the Portman Cup at Taunton the last day, his third outing since a long absent.
Yet the handicapper has dropped him 7lb, making him 19lb down in all since his heyday. BETDAQ 7.2 taken.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.40 Punchestown (win 30)
BET 6pts win FLOUEUR
BET 3.75pts win STONES AND ROSES
4.00 Exeter (win 20, win 10)
BET 3.25pts win DESTINEE ROYALE
BET 2.5pts win CHILLI FILLI
4.30 Exeter (win 20 nap)
BET 3.25pts win ELEGANT ESCAPE
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
