DAQMAN HIT BY BLACK SATURDAY: Says Daqman: ‘It had to happen but losers can leave you with a terrible hangover. Yesterday was my worst Saturday in six years. In the racing scheme of things, it’s normal, but so easy to let it get to you when you are used to picking winners every day.’
WINNING LAYS RUN ENDS AT 13: ‘I even got the lay of the day wrong. I railed against Bobs Worth in my ABC Guide but swerved him at the last minute. Too many races (no, not him; me).’ The run of winning lays ended at 13 in a row. The latest sequences are:
Bankers 111F11
Naps 1F21233
Lays 1111111111111x
Daqman 8, Pricewise 2
(overall 254-97)
DOUBLE BANKER BID TODAY: Daqman is immediately back on the attack today, laying a favourite and nominating not one but two bankers on the card for the top trials meeting at Fairyhouse.
PAST NEWBURY RESULTS PUT SMAD IN HIS PLACE
There’s one betting rule that’s particularly hard to keep. Don’t listen to jockeys and trainers. I got well carried away by Paul Nicholls’ regarding Saphir Du Rheu as a mix of Denman and Kauto Star. He isn’t. Not yet anyway.
Many of you who listened to Alan King’s apology – ‘I got it wrong last year and ran him without a prep’ – will have been on Smad Place in the Hennessy. I hope so.
But, on a different day, Smad Place could so easily have got it wrong again, since many of yesterday’s results can be put down to the mud, with three of the races at Newbury slow by between 20 and 25 seconds.
Those who were also on Many Clouds in the Hennessy last year, and followed up in the Grand National, will readily dismiss my ‘excuses’ – poor old, Daqman; he got stuffed! – but try this on for size.
Five of the winners on yesterday’s Newbury card last year (the exceptions were Silsol and, of course, Many Clouds) have won only two races in total since then.
Three of the winners have failed to score again; two of them have won just once each in the 12 months after their success that day. Horses to follow, then? Well, maybe, Smad Place. But, after that, I wouldn’t be so sure.
Those losers in all events who needed good ground yesterday could well turn round the form in the usual fast conditions at Cheltenham and Aintree.
FAIRYHOUSE LAYERS CAN SAY TATA TO THE CASH
12.40 Fairyhouse So, as I was saying before I was rudely interrupted by a headline: be wary of results unless there is a precedent. That’s why I try to give you the stats about the trial races.
For instance, this opener is useless for horses to follow, but take an overall view in case of surprises.
Three of the last four winners have failed to win another race. But the odd one out, Our Conor, went on to capture the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham. The exception that proved the rule.
If their Racing Post ratings are any guide, there is, in fact, an exceptional animal in this race, at least on all known form to date: Missy Tata is 14 points clear of anything else.
Her Down Royal win by 19 lengths and 15 was the more impressive because, after useful experience at Auteuil, she jumped superbly for a juvenile.
She’s bred to get at least another half-mile, so Down Royal, and likely today, too, are bonuses for this filly with a seeming big future over further. Meanwhile her stamina should see her through the mud.
Incredibly, she gets all the allowances here: between 7lb and 11lb from the rest of the field.
Rashaan, himself hardly off the bridle at Listowel in September, also looks very promising but has a hard task as the one giving the 11lb.
It’s good to see veteran Edward O’Grady with a decent sort, Le Vagabond, but you wouldn’t put a penny on her on breeding.
Thywillbedone showed a great attitude at Punchestown but has very little to spare over Newberry New and best to wait to see if the hood works a second time.
1.10 Fairyhouse (Royal Bond Novice Hurdle) Hurricane Fly, Jezki and Nichols Canyon have won this top novice trial since 2008.
Fly with Willie Mullins and you’ll have to bet long odds-on the two, unless you can split his pair, Long Dog and Bachasson.
Here we go listening to trainers again, but Willie gives Bachasson the edge over Long Dog on the ratings and ‘he might shade it on the jumping side, too.’
Or shall we listen to the jockey? Ruby Walsh has picked Long Dog, who has already landed a four-timer, culminating in a Grade 3.
BETDAQ betting also barks Long Dog. But, after Willie’s comments, it’s impossible to ignore the value 4.2 Bachasson over 1.95 offers Long Dog.
ARCTIC FIRE FOR NOW: ALPHA FOR THE FUTURE
1.40 Fairyhouse (Hatton’s Grace Hurdle) The roll of honour contains three recent Champion Hurdle stars, Brave Inca, Hurricane Fly and Jezki, though in fact Brave Inca won it after his championship the previous March.
Arctic Fire would be making the same double bid here but was unfortunate to come up against Faugheen at his best at Cheltenham this year and had to be content with the runner-up spot.
Clondaw Court will be going chasing but Noel Meade’s ‘too small for jumping fences’ Snow Falcon sticks to hurdling, with something to find here.
That leaves Alpha Des Obeaux, who is likely to become the best chaser of them all but is said to be a bit short of work for his seasonal debut. He is a saver here at 7.4 in the BETDAQ orange this morning, a 100% list of offers which allows me a second banker stake today on Arctic Fire, who is close to even money in the orange.
Mouse Morris’s ‘Obeaux’ is a real Alpha male. Second to Douvan over shorter at Punchestown, where he was later runner-up to Nichols Canyon in the Champion Novice, he was matching strides at Aintree with Thistlecrack (Newbury winner yesterday)) when he fell at the last.
2.40 Fairyhouse (Drinmore Novices Chase) This trial produced Don Cossack a couple of seasons back, and the Don’s stable gives itself three chances of winning this 2m 4f trial again today.
That spoils it for me as a betting heat (Gordon Elliott says he can’t split the two at the front of the betting) but, since Pricewise tips in the race, I have to take sides.
Four times a chase winner already, Shantou Flyer would be a first for amateurs if Barry O’Neill can beat the professionals. But, such is the strength of the race, that he’s 20.0.
Free Expression was all out to beat Shantou Flyer at Navan last year, and Outlander outran Free Expression at Punchestown.
So it is that the market prefers his stablemate, No More Heroes, who was impressive on the last day.
But I shall oppose him on these grounds: the horse he beat five lengths, Futuramic, was a distance behind Outlander and Free Expression in their Punchestown race. I’ll take 6.0 Outlander and Ruby Walsh to down the Elliott trio.
And, if we get stuffed again today, we only have ourselves to blame for betting in trial races.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points but bankers settled at SP)
BANKER: BET 20pts to win (nap) MISSY TATA (12.40 Fairyhouse)
BET 6.25pts win BACHASSON (1.10 Fairyhouse)
BANKER: BET 20pts win ARCTIC FIRE and 3.3pts win (saver) ALPHA DES OBEAUX (1.40 Fairyhouse)
DOUBLE WHAMMY: LAY 5pts NO MORE HEROES and BET 4pts win OUTLANDER (2.40 Fairyhouse)
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