5-2 NAP: IT’S SEVEN FROM NINE: Saturday-king Daqman went further ahead of Pricewise (the score is now 7-2) after a bold nap on Virak (WON 5-2) and a place Silvergrove (2nd 14-1) among four winning bets, which netted 64 points profit. It was his sixth winning nap in eight days of the Flat and he’s seven from the last nine.
BETDAQ VALUE WINS THE DAY: But the day belonged to BETDAQ value, with Virak taken at 5.8, Silvergrove at 16.5 and his third winning bet, Lady Dutch (WON 15-8), at 4.0. His fourth return came from a Daq Multiples double, Lady Dutch with Virak.
DAQMAN NEEDS TWO FOR 150: Daqman and Pricewise clash again at Fairyhouse this afternoon in the 3.20 and 4.20 races. Their overall scores in three seasons plus the first week of the new Flat campaign is Daqman 148, Pricewise 75 (in Pricewise’s selected races).
IF IN DOUBT, TAKE UP THE BETDAQ OFFERS
There are fairy-tale offers at Fairyhouse. I always compare the BETDAQ orange with the list of bookmakers in Oddschecker, whenever the exchange opens for betting on a big race, and tomorrow’s Irish Grand National has some huge discrepancies.
If In Doubt, 10-1 second favourite with Ladbrokes, was 21.0 in the BETDAQ orange this morning. Grand Jesture, 12-1 third in with another of the Big Four, was showing offers of 19.5.
Emperor Of Dirt and Vics Canvas, both 12-1 with the same firm, were 17.0 and 19.0 respectively on BETDAQ and, also 12-1 in places, Los Amigos, Lots Of Memories and Champagne James were 14.0, 16.0 and 17.0. I shall give my verdict tomorrow.
GITANE NAPPED AT THE WEIGHTS IN RYANAIR
3.20 Fairyhouse (Irish Stallion Farms’ Mares’ Novice Hurdle Championship Final) Fairyhouse opens today on soft-heavy ground with a maiden and then a trappy Grade-C novice handicap hurdle, in which Joseph O’Brien, plagued with weight problems on the Flat, will have to carry lumps of ‘lead’ in the saddle to ride a top-weight off 12st 1lb!
All eyes at this Fairyhouse weekend look back at Cheltenham and forward to Punchestown. The last winner of this novice-hurdle final to go on to success at the Punchestown festival was Oscar Rebel in 2008.
But the race threw up a much bigger future star in 2013 when Annie Power scored the seventh of 10 consecutive victories.
Thanks partly to her, Willie Mullins is on a hat-trick in the race. He brings on Petite Parisienne from her fifth in the Triumph Hurdle and another Cheltenham loser, Bitofapuzzle, third in the Mares’ Hurdle, is one of two runners for Harry Fry. Like Bitofapuzzle, the unexposed Desert Queen likes to lead.
Mullins has two more. Lyrical Theatre was beaten over the minimum by Keppols Queen at Limerick, while Uranna stopped Ron’s Dream over today’s trip at Sandown.
Lyrical Theatre was earlier runner-up on today’s track, when Rock On The Moor (prefers top of the ground) was a faller when seemingly about to take part in the finish. That race, at Fairyhouse, was also unsatisfactory because Carrigmorna Rock, who had beaten Keppols Queen over today’s trip in December, didn’t run her race after being hampered and was pulled up. What to make of it all?
Well, Willie broke the mould last year when he won this with a four-year-old and Petite Parisienne seems to be Ruby Walsh’s choice getting the age allowance, an 11lb advantage.
Uranna’s form falls short of Grade 1 and Lyrical Theatre seems firmly entrenched in Grade 3, and would prefer better ground.
Key to the form appears to be the heavy-ground defeat of Bitofapuzzle by The Pirate’s Queen at Haydock. The positions were reversed on the undulating Cheltenham course on drier ground but conditions seem back in The Pirate Queen’s favour today.
Remember that Rons Dream, well-beaten third in that race at Haydock, was much closer to Uranna at Sandown.
The final consideration is that these runners have had five or six races over the autumn-winter season, apart from Desert Queen, The Pirate’s Queen, Uranna, Dalmatia and Petite Parisienne.
They will be comparatively fresh, and open to improvement. I’ll take Petite Parisienne (7.0 in the BETDAQ orange) and The Pirate’s Queen (7.8) against the field.
3.50 Fairyhouse (Coolmore NH Sires’ Novice Hurdle) Most winners of this go on to the Punchestown Festival but, though one or two have been placed there, you have to go back 12 years for ‘a result’.
Shaneshill is odds on for this but his Supreme Novice Hurdle second to Douvan was over 2m, while Outlander, who didn’t get his ground at Cheltenham, has a win over subsequent Albert Bartlett winner, Martello Tower, on his CV. Could be close but Outlander is better value at 5.6.
4.20 Fairyhouse (Ryanair Gold Cup Novice Chase) With two exceptions – Arkle third Realt Dubh (2011) and RSA fifth Like-A-Butterfly – this is usually won by horses which have swerved Cheltenham.
And Apache Stronghold and Valseur Lido, a short-head apart behind Vautour at the festival, have to give more than a stone to Willie Mullins rising star mare, Gitane Du Berlais. A line through Irish Saint says they can’t.
BRIGHT CHANCE OF 19.5 TRADE IN THE CUP
3.25 Musselburgh Gold Cup Lady Kashaan hasn’t scored again since winning this race in 2013, for the most part due to racing in class 2. But she is weighted below that winning mark now and back in her class.
Bright Abbey was runner-up last year after a prep win at Wolver, which was probably a mistake. He’s always done best when fresh, as he is this time around after a seven-week break.
Bright Abbey won on all sorts of terrain including on soft ground for Philip Hobbs but his best form for Diane Sayer is on a sound surface. His jockey, Emma Sayer (23), is a Fegentri world amateur championship gold medallist.
She has already won from the front on Bright Abbey, who should last long enough here to make him a decent trade off his morning BETDAQ offers of 19.5 (I can only record a small win-and-place bet).
Two wins and two seconds for Streets Of Newyork since mid-December have cost him a rise of 24lb over hurdles to 135 but he runs here on the Flat off 77.
The question is whether he can translate his hurdles form to the Flat, when trainer Brian Ellison has had only one winner from his last 31 starters.
I look to Handiwork. He was back in good shape over hurdles recently and a quick return to the Flat will be no problem on the evidence of past form.
Trainer Steve Gollings is in top gear and Handiwork’s gap between jumps and Flat after improvement over hurdles is even greater than Street Of Newyork’s. He’s 135 over jumps; 75 on the Flat.
MOORE COULD BE ROCKING THROUGH RYE
3.45 Plumpton (Sussex Champion Hurdle) Bath trainer Neil Mulholland, on a magic momentum of seven winners from 10, still standing, notched the 50 up for the season yesterday.
He’s booked Richard Johnson for 7.4 offer Pass The Time, 12lb higher than when winning at Ludlow in December but dropped in class today after two good tries in Graded company, including sixth in the Mares’ Hurdle Final at Cheltenham.
Boss Des Mottes (4.5 favourite on BETDAQ, as I write) is another on the upgrade and the 22lb gap between that one and Pass The Time is seemingly the conundrum of the race.
Dormello Mio was also at Cheltenham (Roman Flight fell) but his form to date suggests he would be better served by some cut in the ground, as would Song Light and Tornado in Milan. As far as we know.
That’s your problem at this time of the year, as soft-ground winners appear on the dry or drying ground of the Spring meetings. It’s one you usually have to face at Aintree, which has superb turf and drainage.
It’s a particular problem with a lightly-raced sort like Ryeolliean (9.2 this morning), a maiden who has run only with cut in the ground and gets in here with 10st.
Gary Moore ran a four-year-old to finish second last year, and the only other four-year-old runner to take part in this race was third the season before.
Moore, who is leading trainer on the course, knows something of what is needed through an exposed contender, The Green Ogre, who has been 11 times in the first four from 12 starts in this kind of company.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points, unless otherwise stated)
BET 3.3pts win PETITE PARISIENNE and 3pts win THE PIRATE’S QUEEN (3.20 Fairyhouse)
BET 4.3pts win OUTLANDER (3.50 Fairyhouse)
BET 8pts win HANDIWORK, and 1pt win and place BRIGHT ABBEY (3.25 Musselburgh)
BET 5.7pts win BOSS DES MOTTES and 2.4pts win RYEOLLIEAN (3.45 Plumpton)
BET 12pts win (nap) GITANE DU BERLAIS (4.20 Fairyhouse)
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