DAQMAN WAS RIGHT WITH HIS 5-1 NAP: Daqman landed his nap Aye Right (WON 5-1) with a confident headline for the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle yesterday when he insisted it was no rehearsal but the real thing. Yet again, if you followed Daqman at the early BETDAQ offers, you were big on the value which took him 2-1 up on Pricewise and in profit on the day.
⭐ WON 5-1 AYE RIGHT (nap) to win 25pts at 7.9 on BETDAQ
CARLISLE ABANDONED: Says Daqman: ‘I need luck or a brain scan today, daring to bet at an Irish meeting on good ground in races geared to testing novices for the future! It makes those ‘get me out of here’ TV programmes look simple.’ Carlisle is abandoned and Leicester only just survived having inspected twice.
IMPERVIOUS HOLDS WATER
⭕ 1.05 Fairyhouse (Royal Bond Novice Hurdle) The Royal Bond turns up some real class, like Gordon Elliottt’s 2019 winner Envoi Allen, who went on to complete 12 wins in a row, including the Ballymore at Cheltenham and the Drinmore at this Fairyhouse meeting the following year.
But, though Elliott has two top contenders today, Gavin Cromwell and Colm Murphy each line up unbeaten five-year-olds and Willie Mullins throws three into the melting pot.
My Mate Mozzie for Cromwell has beaten 20 others a total of 18 lengths in his two hurdles to date, with the runner-up at Navan the last day, Chemical Energy, winning here at Fairyhouse yesterday for Gordon Elliott.
So, while on the one hand Chemical Energy was boosting Mozzie’s form, on the other he was showing that Team Elliott knows the score.
The question is which of Elliott’s are best, as he bids for a hat-trick and four from five in the race?
Mighty Potter ran a maiden-hurdle field at Down Royal out of sight, while Three Stripe Life, the champion bumper fourth at Cheltenham in March, was soon clear on today’s course earlier this month, confirming his potential.
Impervious showed ‘phenomenal improvement’ (quote unquote Colm Murphy) from her Listowel hurdle to another ‘easy’ – soon clear – at Down Royal. The mare’s 7lb could be very useful today, if not decisive.
What makes this a rare Royal Bond is that the good going continues. How much novice form will stand the test of the heavy winter ground?
BETDAQ value 5.8 Impervious
GABY CAN LAND A GAMBLE
⭕ 1.35 Fairyhouse (Drinmore Novice Chase) Most of this field have won on varying terrain, though Grand Paradis seems established as a soft-heavy performer.
Again, Gordon Elliottt (four wins in the last six years) has the bragging rights but is well behind in the market positions, with Grand Paradis seemingly wanting it soft and Fury Road already beaten in better conditions by Gabynako.
Trainer Cromwell is entitled to feel confident after Gabynako landed a gamble that day over the Fairyhouse fences, with Fury Road not fluent in second and Midnight Run only fourth.
Midnight Run was challenging when he blundered at the last and Rachael Blackmore now takes over the ride.
Lifetime Ambition was always doing enough when he held Beacon Edge on the soft at Down Royal. He’s won on yielding but not even been tried on good ground.
Cape Gentleman has won on good and won on heavy; he’s won at 2m 1f and at 2m 4f. It’s a race to watch closely for future winners.
BETDAQ value 7.2 Gabynako
9.4 NATIVE BETDAQ VALUE
⭕ 2.05 Fairyhouse (Porterstown Chase) Winning the Thyestes in January shot Coko Beach’s rating through the roof, and Jack Foley needs to be worth every pound of his claim today to get him home off top weight.
On the other hand, The Dabbler has gone nine chases under a claim – four of them in the frame – but forfeits that today for a rider who is 8-153 (just 5%) this season.
Course-winner Agent Boru beat The Dabbler at Ballinrobe last Spring but has no form in a stamina test.
The 2020 Kim Muir winner, Milan Native, won first run back last autumn and was backed with bookmakers last night for this.
Stones And Roses seems to need soft-heavy and Smoking Gun has been out of form for nearly two years.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE value 9.4 Milan Native
PUMP LOVES FAIRYHOUSE
⭕ 2.40 Fairyhouse (Hatton’s Grace Hurdle) Honeysuckle goes for a hat-trick in this at odds-on this morning. She will be hard to beat, with the age alone of the runners revealing her dominance.
There has been no Hatton’s Grace winner above the age of six for 10 years but all bar the rank outsider Skyace are seven and eight today, suggesting a paucity of young Irish prospects in this division.
Abacadabras has been 10 lengths and 14 lengths, still standing, behind Honeysuckle and fell once (in the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham).
Saldier, a Grade-1 winner at Punchestown two years ago, has come back to form but is 10lb behind the favourite on the ratings.
Ronald Pump is 11122 at Fairyhouse, including runner-up to Honeysuckle last year. Blinkers (first time) might bring them together if Honeysuckle is a stride or two short of peak.
BETDAQ value 35.0 Ronald Pump
BRIGADE COULD DO BETTER
⭕ 3.10 Fairyhouse Young horses with light weights dominate this handicap. Light Brigade (BETDAQ 14.0) broke his maiden here, and needed the race behind Eskylane at Down Royal when Magic Tricks was second; both are now better off at the weights.
Visionarian likes this ground, and Dads Lad has a light weight, albeit hiked 11lb for scoring at Cork and needs to find more.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.05 Fairyhouse (win 20)
BET 4pts win IMPERVIOUS
1.35 Fairyhouse (win 20)
BET 3.25pts win GABYNAKO
2.05 Fairyhouse (win 20, nap)
BET 2.5pts win MILAN NATIVE
2.40 Fairyhouse (win 40 from 34 win and 6 place)
BET 1pt win and 1.5pts place RONALD PUMP
3.10 Fairyhouse (win 13)
BET 1pt win LIGHT BRIGADE
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
