8.2 DAQMAN WINNER PIPS PRICEWISE: Gweedore (WON 7-2) was another BETDAQ revelation in the Silver Arrow at Musselburgh yesterday, 8.2 when the morning selection by DAQMAN. It took him into a 3-2 lead over Pricewise, and they now go head to head in the Fairyhouse Gold Cup, one of three big races he previews today.
TWO GRAND NATIONALS NEXT WEEK: Next week has two Grand Nationals and Daqman starts his countdown to Liverpool today with a going guide to the top 20 probables. Tomorrow, on Irish Grand National day, he takes his pick of BETDAQ value.
WEATHER EYE ON THE NATIONAL
GROUNDS FOR CONCERN! After a ‘mostly sunny and fine weekend’, rain is forecast for Liverpool on Bank Holiday Monday, with more than 35mm due before the Grand National. A drop in temperature and the main fall (11.7mm) combine to make Wednesday the pivotal day.
DEEP going on Saturday would be so against those with 11 stone or more in the Grand National that the nearest they could hope for is to finish fourth, according to the stats this century (2000-2022).
When it’s ‘good to soft’, the higher weights have provided five winners, and good ground helped them to three straight strikes (2010-12) years.
But what is ‘good to soft’? The punter’s faith in reported conditions takes a knock when you have officially ‘good to soft’ in successive years, yet the time of the race and the weights carried by the finishers is hugely different.
2022 good to soft In fact, the time was fast! Five of the first six to finish carried 11st 2lb or more but the winner was on 10-10. Some 25 of the 40 starters failed to finish.
2021 good to soft But, in truth, the time was slow by 11 secs, and yet again only 15 out of 40 finished.
Most significantly, none of the six horses carrying 11st or more completed the course.
Soft, Heavy In four Nationals on deep ground, only two of 12 finishers in 2018 carried 11st or more (best fourth); just one finished in the first 13 in 2016 with 11st or more (best fourth); one was in the first 16 in 2014 with 11st more (fifth).
And only four in total out of 40 completed the course in 2001, Red Marauder’s year, on heavy ground.
POURING ON ANY SECOND NOW
Betdaq Betting Exchange GRAND NATIONAL ANTE-POST Offers alongside going conditions from the winning form of the top 20 probables.
Main movers in the BETDAQ market have been for Any Second Now, Le Milos, Delta Work and The Big Dog.
27 AIN’T THAT A SHAME soft-heavy, heavy
12 from 18 ANY SECOND NOW soft, heavy
27 CAPODANNO good to yielding, yielding, heavy
40 COKO BEACH good to yielding, yielding, heavy
8.0 CORACH RAMBLER good, good to soft, soft, heavy
10 from 12.5 DELTA WORK good, yielding, soft, heavy
38 DI0L KER soft, heavy
14 GAILLARD DU MESNIL good to soft, yielding, soft, soft-heavy
25 from 26 GALVIN good, good to soft, yielding, soft.
16 from 20 LE MILOS Good, good to soft, soft and heavy
40 from 41 LIFETIME AMBITION good to yielding, yielding, soft, heavy
20 LONGHOUSE POET soft, heavy
38 MINELLA TRUMP good, good to soft, soft
50 from 60 MISTER COFFEY good, soft
15 MR INCREDIBLE yielding, heavy
10 NOBLE YEATS good to soft, soft, heavy
24 from 25 OUR POWER good, good to soft, soft
47 from 54 ROI MAGE yielding to soft, very soft, heavy
23 from 28 THE BIG DOG soft, soft-heavy
20 VANILLIER good to soft, yielding,soft-heavy
NEW PIPE AGE DAWNING
⭕ 3.25 Ffos Las (West Wales National) Local-hero Amateur goes for a hat-trick in this, off the same mark as last year.
He has just 40 miles to travel North behind the fabulous Gower coast, compared with the 647 round trip from Yorkshire for Bushypark, a soft-heavy ground winner, whose connections will be hoping the surface doesn’t dry out too much.
Volcano pulled up behind Amateur in 2021, after winning over 3m 5f at Warwick. Almost identical results last year: won at Warwick but beaten 44 lengths in this.
Now, for the third time 28 days ago, he’s taken the Warwick race yet again before coming on here. The implication is that he’s left today’s prize behind for a third time.
Can Equus Dreamer show him how to put back-to-back wins together? It’s only 18 days since he won the Tim Molony Chase at Haydock.
Super Survivor is also unexposed on his handicap debut, in fact having his first run outside novice company in either chase or hurdle.
Paul Nicholls has given Truckers Lodge every chance, now down 18lb (plus Freddie Gingell’s allowance) on his Welsh Grand National third of 2021 but very hard to place: 2-16 over fences and last won in a bog three years ago.
Sidi Ismael would go close if he reproduced his short-head second at Taunton to the Lincolnshire National winner, Bangers And Cash.
He is claimed off but is still giving weight to stable companion New Age Dawning, long seen by David Pipe as a ‘special stayer’ and having his first try at a marathon today.
Fuji Flight, who likes the mud, also has his first go at a trip. It’s hard to know what to expect from this little horse with a short, choppy style.
Time To Get up would be short if this were run after his Midlands Grand National first (2021) and third (2022), wrapped around runner-up to Bristol de Mai in the Haydock Park Grand National Trial. But he’s pulled up three races out of four this season.
Betdaq Betting Exchange value 5.9 Equus Dreamer, 7 Amateur, 8 Truckers Lodge, 12 New Age Dawning
RUN THE RISQUE WITH TEDDY
⭕ 4.15 Plumpton (Sussex Champion Handicap Hurdle) Paul Nicholls has withdrawn Blueking D’Oroux, seemingly leaving the race for Aucunrisque on the form of his £87k big handicap hurdle triumph at Newbury in February.
He beat the subsequent County Hurdle third, Filey Bay, and today’s local rival, Gary Moore’s Teddy Blue, who wanted to jump left all the time.
Teddy’s local track, Plumpton, should suit him better and he’s 9lb better off with Aucunrisque, with his stable in fantastic form, on a five-day roll of 14011112111.
BETDAQ value 5.6 Teddy Blue
POTTER IF IT’S NOT TACTICAL
⭕ 4.55 Fairyhouse (Gold Cup) Trying to forget Cheltenham is Mighty Potter, only third in the Turners but beat Adamantly Chosen eight lengths in the Grade-1 Drinmore at the Dublin Festival.
It transpired that Mighty Potter had lost a shoe in the Turners but still finished in front of Appreciate It, who hung badly.
Sir Gerhard, 10 lengths inferior to Mighty Potter over hurdles at the Punchestown Festival last April, also flopped at Cheltenham last month, jumping poorly.
With six of the nine runners trained by Willie Mullins, I fear a tactical race but the form-book says Mighty Potter can now continue his rise to the top.
DAQMAN’S BETS
3.25 Ffos Las (win 50 with place return)
BET 4pts win and place NEW AGE DAWNING
4.15 Plumpton (win 10)
BET 2pts win TEDDY BLUE
4.55 Fairyhouse (win 15, nap)
BET 12pts win MIGHTY POTTER
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Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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