THE START OF THE FLAT (ONE): The Flat turf season is here! In Ireland, that is. England waits until April 2 for its Lincoln Handicap, ‘so that we can get used to more jumps dross after Cheltenham’ says Daqman.
MORE BIG ANTE-POST BETS: But, after sensational ante-post bets at Cheltenham, Daqman is in the mood to find more mistakes by the BETDAQ layers on two Grand Nationals (Fairyhouse March 28 and Aintree April 9) as well as on the Doncaster Lincoln. So keep watching this space!
IRISH LINCOLNSHIRE STANDOUT: Today he rates an English raider in the Irish Lincolnshire at 13.0 but fears the home team have a ‘standout’ bet. The nap is at Ffos Las.
ASHRAF IRISH LINCOLNSHIRE EARLY BIRD
4.55 The Curragh (Irish Lincolnshire) We can’t hope for many clues at this time of year, except to follow the younger horses (eight out of 10 winners of this have been aged four or five) and the trainers who have their strings in form on AW.
Moving into the turf season with good recent records are the stables of (in those age groups) Withernsea, Spring Offensive, Aussie Valentine, Caillin Mor, Vivat Rex, Lily’s Rainbow and Duchess Andona.
Spring Offensive, Duchess Andona (7f best) and Lil’s Rainbow have scored only on a sound surface, while Vivat Rex is a winner only in lower class.
But Caillin Mor has scored twice at The Curragh (7f and 1m) and likes today’s surface, as he faces last year’s one-two, with Aussie Valentine 9lb better for a length with the winner that day, Tommy Stack’s Onenightidreamed.
Aussie Valentine’s local Curragh yard, which won this in 2010, has current form-figures of 20213 and gave Aussie a pipe-opener on the AW at Dundalk just nine days ago.
But Stack and twice a winner of this Dermot Weld (Ashraf) are nearly always hot in the early part of the turf season. Lightly-raced Ashraf, making his handicap debut, has a touch of class and won the maiden (5.25) on this card last year.
When Ashraf was fourth at Leopardstown in October, he had Aussie Valentine’s Paul Deegan stablemate, Sruthan, 11 lengths behind.
Since Sruthan was ‘the same horse’ as Onenightidreamed in a close encounter last May about six weeks after the Lincolnshire, Ashraf seems to have the advantage, albeit the trips were different.
The English threat is Withernsea, who lays out of his ground. As a result he was hampered at Doncaster but still won on heavy to finish a season in which the highlight was his trip to Leopardstown when he again motored through late and was second for a £70,000 prize.
His 7lb claimer, Adam McNamara, won at Southwell for Richard Fahey’s yard 10 days ago, and is regarded as a bright prospect.
BETDAQ VERDICT: At this time of year, old form doesn’t always work out, and collateral lines may be misleading, but – until we know otherwise – Ashraf seems to have a firm edge, and we know his stable fires early, including with him on this course last year. He could be a standout and I was happy to take 5.5.
Withernsea’s Irish raid just missed out last September and the extra furlong could help: 13.0 offers.
NO EXPENSE SPARED TO LAND THE NAP
2.00 Ffos Las Hawkhurst has had no-expense-spared treatment at Ditcheat to get him ready for this, and why not if your owner (someone called J P McManus) has forked out £200,000 for you!
3.40 Ffos Las Batavir (3.5), down in class and trip, is likely to have a front-running ride from Tom Scu today, in the hope of shaking off Never Says Never (5.2).
IF HARRY HARRIES HARRY, HE’LL WIN..
3.55 Carlisle The drop back in trip and class, and the better ground, will all suit Harry The Viking, huge at 18.5 on BETDAQ this morning.
And the handicapper’s let-off for Restless Harry (down nearly a stone since December) could be a mistake at 8.0. Harry 1 and Harry 2 for the forecast, then!
5.00 Carlisle Fascinating to see Long Run prepping here for the National. Though I won’t be backing him in the long run, he’ll make a hub for my Daq Multiples today.
DAQMAN’S BETS (to win 20 points unless stated)
BET 12pts win (nap) HAWKHURST (2.00 Ffos Las)
BET 8pts win BATAVIR and 2pts win (stakes saver) NEVER SAYS NEVER (3.40 FFos Las)
BET 2.8pts win RESTLESS HARRY, and 1.2pts win and place HARRY THE VIKING (3.55 Carlisle)
BET 4.4pts win ASHRAF, and 1.6pts win and place WITHERNSEA (4.55 The Curragh)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 2 x 3pt win trebles Hawkhurst (2.00 Ffos Las) with Batavir and Never Says Never (3.40 Ffos Las) and Long Run (5.00 Carlisle)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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