DAQMAN’S 4.0 NAP WINS AT 13-8: Daqman made 60 points in 70 minutes at Ascot yesterday with two well-backed winners, napping the gambled-on Penhill (WON 13-8), a morning 4.0 offer on BETDAQ. Then he did the trick again, with 6.6 about the smooth 9-2 winner Temptress:
WON 13-8 Penhill, nap (BETDAQ 4.0)
WON 9-2 Temptress (BETDAQ 6.6)
IT’S GUINEAS DAY IN FRANCE: There was no Saturday score in the Daqman v Pricewise value challenge, so Daqman remains 25-5 in front as they go to Paris today for the Poulains and Pouliches, the 2.08 (French 2,000 Guineas) and the 3.15 (French 1,000 Guineas) at Longchamp.
BELIEVE IN FABRE AND THE LONGCHAMP DRAW
2.08 Longchamp, French 2,000 Guineas (Poule d’Essai des Poulains) Aidan O’Brien three times (runs Highland Reel and War Envoy today) and Saeed Bin Suroor twice (Maftool) have won this five times in all, the same total as Andre Fabre alone.
Fabre runs two today. On the ratings, the Racing Post has his Make Believe on level peggings with Maftool and War Envoy, one in front of Highland Reel.
But, if the trade-paper ratings are right, they all have something to find with Muhaarar, trained by Charles Hills to win the Greenham Stakes last month.
The five-lengths Greenham third, Ivawood, filled the same place behind Gleneagles in the Newmarket Guineas.
But the Greenham was a speed contest on the prevailing firm ground and Muhaarar now has a furlong further to go on an easier surface, though it id a drying day in Paris, sunny with cloud.
The Galileo colt Highland Reel also produced his Group form (won the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood) on firm ground.
Conversely, Make Believe won twice on soft going and his 2015 form is on very soft, second in the Prix Djebel, which brings in some collateral form.
The winner that day at Maisons was Ride Like The Wind (Sir Andrew third), who was a disappointing ninth, eight lengths off Gleneagles, in the first Newmarket Classic. Theoretically, the Greenham connection puts Muhaarar well ahead of the game.
However, Make Believe is a son of Makfi, winner of the Newmarket 2,000 on firm ground and is closely related to Dubawi Sound, who won five out of six in the USA on firm.
So it is that today’s sounder surface could bring about improvement, which is expected anyway, as Make Believe wasn’t cherry ripe for the Prix Djebel.
In France, they really do treat trials as trials; not a word is said about running them half-fit, or letting them lie out of their ground.
There’s more collateral form. Territories, two-lengths runner-up to Gleneagles at Newmarket, had prepped over today’s CD at Longchamp, finishing two lengths in front of Karar.
Now Karar is very interesting. Like Make Believe, he won over a mile as a two-year-old, and his dam is a half-sister to St Leger winner, Lucarno.
He is still inferior to Muhaarar on our collateral form but, granted a strong pace, could be staying on under Frankie Dettori, posing a big threat in the Longchamp straight.
Karar, Highland Reel and Make Believe are the least exposed of the market leaders in this Guineas, and it will be a surprise if one of them doesn’t turn over six-times-raced Muhaarar. I can’t decide from among them. The draw does.
This column greatly favours stats in decision making, and this is one of the races where your fate is decided by stalls position: Muhaarar and Karar are out wide in 18 and 13 which, apart from one odd result in 2010, is a killer.
The stats also tell us that it is very rare (it last happened in 1995) for a horse without a run that season to win this race.
Andre Fabre’s use of the home trials puts his chance with Make Believe just ahead of Ballydoyle’s with first-time-out Highland Reel, who himself is trialing here for the Derby.
If there is a shock result, it could be lightly-raced Flaming Spear from The Grey Gatsby’s yard in Yorkshire, a 25.0 outsider in exchanges on BETDAQ this morning.
Gatsby was a surprise winner of the French Derby last year, and trainer Kevin Ryan is just as keen on Flaming Spear, whose sire, Lope De Vega, won today’s Guineas and the same Chantilly Derby.
DAQMAN’S ORDER-IN: 1 Make Believe, 2 Highland Reel, 3 Flaming Spear
GOLD DOUBLE FOR ANDRE IN FILLIES’ GUINEAS
3.15 Longchamp, French 1,000 Guineas (Poule d’Essai des Pouliches) Ballydoyle is not represented in this fillies’ Classic but will be looking for a result from Ervedya, who was beaten by their Epsom Oaks second-favourite Found in the prestigious Marcel Boussac two-year-old test.
Ervedya’s double-figure draw probably cost her the race that day, and she’s been unlucky again, having to come out of the exact same stall (I love tautology), number 12.
Ervedya easily won the top same-season trial for this, the Imprudence at Maisons, when Ameenah was runner-up. That was very soft ground, but her Marcel Boussac second was on good.
This year is this year, last year is last, when assessing three-year-olds. But, if we again indulge in collateral form, check out Jack Naylor from that Marcel Boussac.
A length-and-a-half off Ervedya, when third that day, he had given Newmarket-Guines-winner Legatissimo 5lb and a threequarter length beating at The Curragh (1m).
Andre Fabre won the other major fillies’ trial this year over today’s CD at Longchamp with Mexican Gold, related to the same stable’s Group-1 winner Announce. Holds Sainte Amarante (through Pitamore).
I’m giving two throws of the dice to Fabre, by taking Mexican Gold (around 5.0 on BETDAQ) to win this. With Make Believe on my side in the colts’ Classic, I think there’s a good chance Fabre will throw a seven in one of the two Guineas with one of two second-favourites.
Outsider? Maimara, by the Newmarket 2,000 winner, Makfi, was only a length off Mexican Gold on her debut last year and could have improved as much, even more; yet is 24.0 in the BETDAQ orange, as I write.
ANGELS HAVE GIVEN US 5.2 BALLYDOYLE VALUE
3.10 Leopardstown (1,000 Guineas Trial) Heavy ground will make it difficult for punters to take anything out of this race for future Classic worth.
Dermot Weld’s record since 2008 is 1310101, against just the one success in 2013 for Aidan O’Brien, who used to dominate the race in the early Noughties.
Blinkers and the visor have helped Weld’s Stormfly win a handicap and a Group 3, and purists will be hoping something improves from among her opposition to give this race some credibility.
You don’t often get a price about a Ballydoyle runner in a race like this, so I’ll accept 5.2 offers about Kissed By Angels, who could still be anything, as they say.
3.40 Leopardstown (Derby Trial) Weld and O’Brien share this, somewhat unequally with O’Brien 6-2 up on Weld since 2006, and it was Ballydoyle which produced the best winner in the decade, Dylan Thomas in 2006.
The markets have the O’Brien colts here today, Cradle Mountain and Order Of St George, out at 50-1 plus for the Derbys at Epsom and The Curragh. And the Weld runner this afternoon is a filly, Oaks hope Summaya.
But Weld might well have got this right. Summaya slammed subsequent Chester Vase winner, Hans Holbein, at Cork.
She looked disappointing in the Salsabil Stakes at Navan afterwards until we can now see in hindsight that the filly just in front of her was a six-lengths Cheshire Oaks winner.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points)
BET 4.6pts win MAKE BELIEVE, and 0.8pts win and place FLAMING SPEAR (2.08 Longchamp)
BET 4.7pts win KISSED BY ANGELS (3.10 Leopardstown)
BET 5pts win (nap) MEXICAN GOLD, and 0.8pts win and place MAIMARA (3.15 Longchamp)
BET 8.5pts win SUMMAYA (3.40 Leopardstown)
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