27.0 POT CALLED SNOOKERED: Daqman says he snookered himself after his stats pointed to the 40-1 winner of the Great Yorkshire yesterday.. then he tipped against it. Maybe there’s compensation in the horse called Snookered at 27.0 on BETDAQ this afternoon.
15.0 BETDAQ ANTE-POST PLOT: Daqman rates today’s Naas test of National Hunt Chase contenders a better trial for Cheltenham than happened there yesterday. He takes 15.0 ante-post for the festival from a stayer-in-the-making in today’s race.
TRIALS DAY WAS A FLOP
All negatives for me. Nothing stands out from trials day at Cheltenham.. Chantry House bounced back from a flat performance in the King George, says one analysis of yesterday’s form.
But ‘bounce’ is not a word I’d use in connection with his struggle to win the Cotswold Chase; lots of errors in a languid performance from which he finished very tired.
The Cotswold last produced the Gold Cup winner in the year 2000 and that negative sequence now seems safe for another year.
In the very next race, I put a line through Champ for the Stayers’ Hurdle. The experimental switch from chasing to hurdles had started so well in the Long Walk.
But yesterday they all gave Paisley Park 100 yards start – his choice not theirs – yet he made up the ground, outjumped and outran Champ in the closing stages. Neither the new Champ nor the old champ will win at the festival.
At Fairyhouse, I put my faith in Brandy Love, though she’d been a bit headstrong in winning at Naas in December.
Yesterday she was running all over the place, with Paul Townend having difficulty keeping her on the track.
She was still going like the winner when she took a wide course as stablemate Allegorie De Vassy attacked on the inside.
Brandy Love jumped badly left over the last two flights, veering towards the rail, and lost more ground than she was beaten by.
She’ll be much better going left-handed at Cheltenham, said the same race-reader, and I would be pleased to get my money back, but headstrong horses with a mind-set like that leave me wondering what other tricks they know that will spoil the party.
A TOUGH MARATHON TEST
⭕ 12.40 Naas Vanillier did Fortune Cookies a big favour at Cheltenham when winning the Albert Bartlett at 14-1 last March.
We were also on when he won his second chase, a Grade-2 Novice (2m 6f) at Punchestown in November, but his jumping let him down at Leopardstown between Christmas and the turn of the year, in his first chase over 3m.
As a 3m hurdle winner, he was likely to need a stronger stamina test over fences, with trainer Gavin Cromwell describing him as ‘just a dour stayer.’
The 3m 1f of this chase today is not much further and the grey’s Graded win means he must give 8lb to the rest of the field at Naas.
As well as the Brown Advisory at Cheltenham, Vanillier is also entered in the National Hunt Challenge Cup (3m 6f), and that’s what I have focused on. Today turns out to be a front-of-the-market version of that contest.
BETDAQ Sportsbook bets on the NH Chase in March: 4 Run Wild Fred, 5 Stattler, 9 En Beton, 11 Vanillier and 15 Farouk d’Alene, which could be huge value.
Here they all are in this Grade 3 this afternoon, with the 9 a.m. BETDAQ betting for the Naas test over shorter suggesting a quite different outcome: 3.25 Stattler, 4.3 Run Wild Fred, 4.9 Farouk d’Alene, 7.8 En Beton and 10.5 Vanillier.
Run Wild Fred has had 10 chases for Gordon Elliott; won only one but with fine big-race efforts on his CV (second in both the Thyestes and the Irish Grand National of 2021).
Stablemate Farouk d’Alene narrowly beat Vanillier over hurdles (in 2020, heavy). He was just touched off over 2m 3f (Grade 1 novice), attempting back-to-back chase wins in December. Bred to win a National!
Stattler (Willie Mullins), twice beaten over hurdles by Vanillier, has just started his chasing career, easily winning a Fairyhouse beginners’.
27.0 POT FROM SNOOKERED
⭕ 1.30 Sedgefield I snookered myself yesterday with my Great Yorkshire stats pointing up horses aged 9 and 10 off 10st 11lb or more.
In handicap order, that indicated Cloudy Glen, Windsor Avenue (WON 40-1) and Janika, so I hope the stats purists among you then ignored my actual bets!
A horse called Snookered looked huge value at 27.0 and 6.3 a place in the BETDAQ exchanges this morning (22.0 each-way) against the odds-on Anyharminasking.
Snookered’s Sedgefield form is 211132 and trainer Brian Ellison yesterday enjoyed a 225-1 double across the cards at Cheltenham (Cormier) and Doncaster (yes, Windsor Avenue was his!)
⭕ 1.50 Fontwell After winning a handicap chase with a novice at Cheltenham yesterday, Nigel Twiston-Davies drops an established chaser down in grade here.
Checkitout was held up when second in the London Gold Cup and third in the Becher Chase, but in his Spring successes he disputed the lead early, and he should see off the three class-4 winners who oppose him today. BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 2.32 taken.
DAQMAN’S BETS
12.40 Naas (win 20)
BET 5pts win FAROUK d’ALENE
1.30 Sedgefield (win 20, place win 5)
BET 1pt each-way SNOOKERED
1.50 Fontwell (win 12 nap)
BET 9pts win CHECKITOUT
Ante-post bull’s-eye bet
NH CHASE, CHELTENHAM
BET 3.5pts win FAROUK D’ALENE
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
