9-2 WINNER BUT COOKIES CRUMBLE: Il Ridoto (WON 9-2) would be the next Frodon, warned Daqman yesterday, giving himself a bit of cover for the trials results that went against the form and cost his Fortune Cookies. See ‘Champions all fail to score.’
TODAY: One bet at each meeting today, Fontwell, Sedgefield and Southwell, all jumpers.
CHAMPIONS ALL FAIL TO SCORE
Just imagine it. Arsenal, Man City, Man U and Spurs are all beaten on the same day; none shows full fitness and determination.
Their ‘expected’ results, as revealed in starting prices of 4-9, 5-4, 5-2, 11-4, are off sync, every one.
The nearest in our equine version of a Saturday of calamity for punters was beaten in a scramble on the line, Edwardstone, a head short of goal in the Clarence House Chase.
But, reality check, has he been overtaken in the league table of two-mile chasers by the winner, Editeur du Gite, rated 10lb inferior beforehand, and is he really now six lengths and more ahead of the third, the odds-on Energumene (officially 6lb his better)?
Punters were forced to ask similar questions when Grand National winner Noble Yeats and Gold Cup favourite Protektorat – seemingly also in a match – both failed to reach the first two in the Cotswold Chase.
We know now that at least one of the four hot-shots was not playing to his full strength.
Trainer Dan Skelton admitted after Protektorat’s defeat: ‘I may have got it wrong. I thought I’d done enough.
‘I had him ready for Haydock and I know how to do it, but you can’t come here today in top form on trials day and then peak again for the Gold Cup.’
Punters bet as if the horse is a machine and, if it doesn’t find all the gears on the day, will then divide into those who believe the result and bet on the new hero next time, and those who forgive the beaten horse and bet he will bounce back.
The Press headlined the ‘humiliation’. Were they talking about the horses or the punters? We know they will bounce back, too.
In fact, they were quickly aided and abetted by one leading layer with the lure ‘25-1 Protektorat for the Gold Cup’. Is that to a whole pound, sir?
He knows that Press will also swallow his follow-up story: shrewd punter hits the jackpot with 25-1 outsider.
Surely, the shrewdie is the one who lost nothing yesterday because he followed a golden rule, never bet in trial races.
CALICO IS WIN MATERIAL
⭕ 1.50 Southwell Team Skelton suffered a Saturday of reverses yesterday, when their two favourites – Protektorat and Pembroke – were both beaten at Cheltenham.
They are hoping to get some petrol money back from a trip to Southwell, via Calico and Richill (3.35), who looks a price too short to be taking in a class-4 contest.
Calico has 12st top-weight but his serious rivals are all within 5lb of him; he is dropped back to his best trip and wears cheekpieces first time.
Monte Igueldo has done everything asked of him but the opposition has been weak every time.
Heartbreak Kid was thought good enough for a trip south to Sandown in December, followed by a class-2 at Wetherby but not a lot came of these adventures.
His fate is left in the hands of 3lb-claimer Theo Gillard, while Brian Hughes, who landed a McCain double yesterday, has five rides at Sedgefield.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 3.4 Calico
GROUNDS TO BE ON JUNIPER
⭕ 2.50 Fontwell Coolvalla is 3-3 over fences, two of them here, and has shot up the handicap 27lb.
His Boxing Day step up to 3m 2f produced a 19-lengths victory from the front.
But the very next day at Wetherby, Juniper jumped to her hat-trick, also making all the running.
Her hike is only 15lb, since one of those wins was over hurdles and, on a drying day, Juniper could be the one.
Coolvalla has only ever won on soft and heavy, while Juniper has scored only on good or good to soft.
He overtook Coolvalla as favourite this morning and the probability is (BETDAQ 2.56) that he will do so in the race itself.
CALICO IS WIN MATERIAL
⭕ 3.10 Sedgefield Upagainstit (McCain-Hughes) has been crying out for this trip and, though well beaten over shorter at Huntingdon, was ridden by a claimer to get into a challenging position down the straight but faded.
LAYS LOGIC: Socks Off finally got off the mark here the last day but the beaten odds-on favourite in the race was returning to the track too soon and has won only a novice heat.
The runner-up, Basford, had trailed in by 100 lengths overall in his two previous starts.
BETDAQ value 5 Upagainstit
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.50 Southwell (win 10)
BET 3pts win CALICO
2.50 Fontwell (win 10 nap)
BET 6pts win JUNIPER
3.10 Sedgefied (win 12)
BET 3pts win UPAGAINSTIT
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