‘BULL’ BET SHOOTS 228 POINTS PROFIT: With six winning returns from nine races, Daqman’s new Bull’s-Eye Bet launched at Royal Ascot already has 228-points profit in the wallet, thanks to yesterday’s hit with Velox (WON 11-2), who zipped home at Sandown. There were five winners in the sequence:
WON 7-2 HOOTENANNY
WON 10-11 LEADING LIGHT
WON 5-2 ARAB SPRING
WON 6-4 ERNEST HEMINGWAY
WON 11-2 VELOX
NOW IT’S DAQMAN 48, PRICEWISE 16: A second big winner at the same SP, Belle d’Or (WON 11-2), meant that the 50 points from the Velox bet – and more – remained in the wallet, and Velox sent him further ahead of Pricewise in their value challenge. It’s now Daqman 48, Pricewise 16 on the Flat. They meet again in the German Derby today.
DERBY STABLE HAS 26.0 WILD CARD
Gossip lives on. So it was probably canny PR when a certain bookmaker ‘revealed’ that Geoffrey Chaucer had beaten Australia in a gallop.
It was just part of the prologue to the Epsom Derby but, if the tale were true, and that gallop could be reproduced on a racecourse, Geoffrey Chaucer would win today’s German equivalent by the proverbial mile.
Fact or myth, it did nothing for him at Epsom – he was 90 lengths last of 16 to Australia – but today’s race is well inferior. It’s claims to be a Group 1 compare to the qualifying rounds not to the World Cup knock-out stage.
The important difference is that no jockey is likely to become a hospital case from a knee in the back at waist height and not even get a red card.
We relearned yesterday in the Eclipse that horseracing is not an exact science, and that the outcome of a race may depend on a single shower of rain with, additionally, jockeys behaving badly.
Not injuring themselves but sitting out the back, watching each other, while the work is done and dusted out front. It was the Hannigan shenanigan won the race; don’t let anyone tell you differently.
The jockey can’t come without the horse, but we were treated to another exhibition ride when Cam Hardie landed Luca Cumani’s Velox – and my bull’s-eye bet – on the same Sandown card.
I warned you about the weather in an article last week. I warned you about Luca lurking at the foot of these handicaps, and the man to follow in the second half of the season. I get some things right, even in a moderate week.
Back to Hamburg (4.05) and the Deutsches Derby. Yes, Germany has had its Danedreams but they don’t win this race: they tend to take the German grand prix (grosser preis) route, notably the one at Baden-Baden in September, right on trajectory to the Arc.
The best recent German Derby winner of any note, Pastorius (2012), was racing off 122 when fourth to Frankel on British Champions Day. Pastorius beat Novellist, in this German Derby but it was Novellist who would go on to be Arc favourite as the season, and the better colts, progressed.
To prove my point, Novellist won the King George and then the Grosser Preis at Baden-Baden, but unfortunately had to miss the Arc, as my bank manager knows all too well.
For all the hullabaloo about him, Waldpark (won in 2011) never won another race in 16 attempts, and you have to go back to subsequent Breeders’ Cup winner, Shirocco (2004) for any more real quality.
Geoffrey Chaucer ran at Epsom off 112. German Guineas winner, Lucky Lion, is about a 114 colt on a line through one horse we know that’s raced against him. The Racing Post ratings man thinks that Sea The Moon is a pound or so behind that.
What we do know is that Sea The Moon – yes, he’s a Sea The Stars colt – is unbeaten and has already disposed of Born To Run, Swacadelic, Chartbreaker, Open Your Heart, and Magic Artist. The question mark – whether Sea The Moon, who has seemingly liked racing from the front, will settle – is not built into his short odds.
Magic Artist improved several lengths on Speedy Approach to win the Bavarian Classic at Munich, in which the position of Nordico suggests that he is in front of the Classic form of Lucky Lion, so around 117 rating, and may have overtaken Sea The Moon now, if the form lines can be believed.
Wild Chief is interesting. It was only his third start when fourth to The Grey Gatsby in the French Derby, which makes him something like a 112 (with a plus), again if you could believe the line.
Stalls wise, you need to be drawn five or six off the rail either side, so that gates 12, 13, 14, 15 have had two wins, a second and two thirds in six years, and 5, 6, 7, 8 have had three wins, three seconds and a third, presumably these results across the track representing the rails pace and the outside sweepers.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: In 14, 15 and 16 are Wild Chief, Sea The Moon (Christophe Soumillon) and Geoffrey Chaucer (Ryan Moore). They look potent neighbours.
At £325,000 to the winner, Aidan O’Brien was bound to have a tilt but Geoffrey Chaucer will have to do one of those Ballydoyle turnarounds to win this with, in theory, Wild Chief in front of him on a line through The Grey Gatsby.
Wild Chief (6.0 on BETDAQ this morning) is from a stable which has won this Germany Derby twice in three years (in 2007 and 2009) and the colt looks primed for today.
The trainer, Jans Hirschberger, also saddles Amazonit, by Kamsin out of a Chief Singer mare. Kamsin won the Germany Derby. So did his sire, Samum. And, at 26.0 Amazonit, I’m having a double-decker Hirschberger in case of a sensational family treble.
THE NAP: The Nephew (I took 5.0 for the 3.45 Market Rasen) needs this return to a right-handed track, steered for Jonjo O’Neill by Tony McCoy. That’s the leading course jockey for the leading course trainer. Of course.
DAQMAN’S BETS (to win 20 points)
BET 5pts win (nap) THE NEPHEW (3.45 Market Rasen)
BET 4pts win WILD CHIEF, plus 0.8pts win and place AMAZONIT (4.05 Hamburg)
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