DAQMAN LANDS 9-2 SATURDAY NAP: After No No Tango (2nd 12-1) on Friday, it was Red Risk (2nd 25-1) who broke Daqman’s heart yesterday, beaten a short head in the Lanzarote: from 37.0 on BETDAQ. But he had the same big boost as Friday, a winning nap. And Saturday’s scored at 9-2.
WON 9-2 GREY DAWNING (Saturday nap)
WON 11-10 TOM CREEN (Friday nap)
8.6 AND 10.0 SUNDAY VALUE SHOTS: Today Daqman unpicks three of the trickiest Sunday races and hopes he’s backed the value not the horse. Two are outsiders at 8.6 and 10.0 on BETDAQ.
ANYTHING GOES ON BETDAQ
⭕ 12.10 Punchestown (Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle) This Moscow Flyer race is named after Jessica Harrington’s winner of 22 big races, including here at Punchestown, the Champion Novice Hurdle, Champion Hurdle and Champion Chase.
Willie Mullins goes for win number nine in the race with Impaire Et Passe, who powered 18 lengths away from 23 others at Naas in December.
Gordon Elliott’s mare Shecouldbeanything also went clear of her field on heavy ground at Limerick, giving 13lb to the four-lengths runner-up over 2m 4f.
Back to 2m today, she could indeed be anything, getting 7lb from the long-odds-on favourite.
Remember BETDAQ offers are decided by you. Ask for what you want, or make an early play then follow the race as the market develops up to and during the event.
You should start with two cut-off points: at what stage is a 1.27 offer like Impaire Et Passe worth backing; how many of them win; what is the opposition worth?
In a novice event, you are betting that he will reproduce the form that seems to set him apart.
Second decision: at what stage are offers about the principal opposition big enough to warrant a bet.
My estimation on past records is that, on heavy ground, a hot novice is 4-9 when facing an unbeaten opponent receiving 7lb.
The Model Kingdom, a 131 animal at this stage, needs good ground and Hey Johnny is rated only 110.
So my book would be 69% Impaire Et Passe, 16% Shecouldbeanything, 9% The Model Kingdom, 3% Hey Johnny, 1% C’Est Rien, allowing 2% for error.
That has the favourite too short by around 7% and the second favourite underrated on the exchange by about 5.5%.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 8.6 Shecouldbeanything
NO DOUBT HE’S SPOT ON
⭕ 2.30 Kelso In the Moscow Flyer, you don’t have accurate ratings because the contestants have had so few races for the handicapper to work on.
In this class-3 hurdle, runners (down the card) are assessed on 18, 10, 34, 30, 40, 22 and 17 races.
You would look to seven-year-olds for least exposure but it is immediately noticeable that one of them, Excelsius, has had double the number of starts (at 34) than has the other youngster, Beat Box (at 17).
At 10, Enemy Coast Ahead has had very few and is unexposed but his winning performances have come in Spring and summer, mainly on a sound surface.
Beat Box is with a stable in form, has won three times on soft and has champion Brian Hughes booked. But he’s been well beaten (3-3) on heavy).
Thereisnodoubt has taken time to drop back to his winning mark of 117 and now looks poised. Lucinda Russell won 3-4 last week.
The mare Stainsby Girl is a tough nut; has won here and a grade higher at Ayr on heavy but she has never won with more than 11st.
It’s a hard race but the other percentage call you need to make is: do the offers for this race add up to a comfortable value-betting environment.
Indeed they do, at close on 100-100 this morning. In fact, if you checked them out at 10.10 a.m., they totalled 104% but I always deduct the tail-enders in a low-class race (two at 33-1 equals 5.8). They pay for the commission!
BETDAQ 3.3 Beat Box, 3.65 Stainsby Girl, 4.7 Thereisnodoubt, 33.0 bar five.
VALUE THIEF STEALS 10.0
⭕ 3.10 Punchestown (Amateur National) Experienced amateurs Derek O’Connor, Jamie Codd and Patrick Mullins get mounts among the claimers.
Derek O’Connor has won this race three times in the decade, and 4.0 offer this morning, Krabat, has often run well, though for just 1-19.
Jamie Codd hasn’t ridden Fakiera (7.8 as I write) since his bumper days more than three years back.
His Porterstown second in December, nearly a mile further than today, was his best run since.
Royal Thief (Patrick Mullins) is the one for me at a big value 10.0 on BETDAQ. Every single one of his strikes has come after a break.
Whether 50, 188 or 214 days off, whether novice hurdle, maiden hurdle or chase, all come the same to him.
DAQMAN’S BETS
12.10 Punchestown (win 12)
BET 1.5pts win SHECOULDBEANYTHING
2.30 Kelso (win 20, nap)
BET 5.5pts win THEREISNODOUBT
3.10 Punchestown (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET 5pts win ROYAL THIEF
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know? DAQMAN’s tips are posted each and every day so he’s always on hand to help with your horse racing betting.
