GRAND NATIONAL HIDDEN HORSES: In the last decade 14 horses have finished in the first three in the Grand National at odds from 20-1 to 100-1. Where did they come from? (Part 1 today) and which of next Saturday’s field could continue the trend (Part 2 tomorrow).
TODAY: It only seems two minutes since the flat season resumed but but have a Sunday service of trials from Leopardstown today.
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A NATIONAL
🏇 HIDDEN HORSES: Part 1: Somewhere in the Grand National field, which has its final declarations tomorrow, there is a rank outsider who will finish in the frame.
Every year in the last 10 years, you’ll find one or more in the first three with SPs of 20-1 (one), 25-1 (five), 33-1 (one), 40-1 (two), 50-1 (one), 66-1 (two) and 100-1 (two).
We’ve had winners in the decade at 25-1 (two), 33-1, 50-1 and 66-1; only two outright favourites scored with just three favourites placed.
Success at 100-1 comes wide apart: Mon Mome (2009) more than 40 years after Foinavon (1967) but Balko Des Flos (2021) was only about six-lengths second to Minella Times at 100-1 in 2021 after Vics Canvas was 100-1 eight-lengths third to Rule The World in 2016.
Where did the big-odds winners and places come from: young horse with the right breeding, previous National run, Graded quality?
Those factors certainly apply to the last three outsiders to win but the 2014 scorer was a veteran who had fallen in the Becher Chase over the National fences.
WON 50-1 Noble Yeats 7-10-10 (Yeats-Flemensfirth mare) 2022
WON 33-1 Rule The World 9-10-7 (2nd Irish Grand National) 2016
WON 25-1 Many Clouds 8-11-9 (Grade-3 double) 2015
WON 25-1 Pineau De Re 11-10-6 (fell in Becher Chase) 2014
COAST TO COAST HOME
Three Group races in a row from Leopardstown today on the Sunday menu.
⭕ 2.20 Leopardstown (Red Rock Group 3) This is by far the most competitive of the three Group races on the card.
Take Me To Church enjoys a theoretical fitness advantage – being the only one of the Betdaq Betting Exchange market leaders to have had a recent outing.
He relished the same heavy ground when bolting up at Naas but on the figures still needs to improve to be competitive at this higher level.
If you are supporting him to complete a four-timer today, you have to factor in that that there are some of lighter raced types here who could improve in leaps and bounds.
The value for me is the Joseph O’Brien trained Atlantic Coast. The stable are well forward so far and Atlantic Coast has the FFFF ‘four-timer-form-factor’ of being a course, distance, going and same level Group 3 winner.
He only got up in the last stride to beat Bright Stripes here in October but with so many ticks in the boxes and likely improvement to come he can win here and boost his chances for the Irish 2,000 Guineas.
It would be remiss not to mention Aidan O’Brien’s Samuel Colt who romped home at the Curragh in heavy ground on debut. Intriguingly though he doesn’t have any big race entries (yet) and could even be considered the third string for the yard here with Battle Cry (Ryan Moore) and The Liffey (Wayne Lordan) also running for Ballydoyle.
Battle Cry has form at Listed level but this is tougher and it’s his first spin on heavy.
The Liffey has all the fancy entries but hasn’t been seen since winning on debut at the Curragh last June when it was good underfoot.
GROUNDS FOR CONCERN
⭕ 2.55 Leopardstown (Priory Belle Group 3) Some potentially top class fillies go to post here including A Lilac Rolla who is unbeaten in two starts but both on good ground so this will be a whole new ball game.
Similar comments apply to Buttons who won on debut here but again when it was good ground.
It’s always dangerous to assume that because horses win on quick ground they can’t follow-up on the other extreme – sometimes they can be even better but Daqman likes to see as much PROVEN form in the book as possible.
The play here might be Alpheratz who relished the heavy ground in a similar Group 3 at the Curragh 20 days ago and can go one better now stepped back in trip.
DON’T CANCEL THE STANDING ORDER
⭕ 3.30 Leopardstown (Ballysax Group 3) With 11 previous winners of the race, Aidan O’Brien might just win this again given he has three of the five strong field!
Illinois won well on debut at the Curragh last season and followed up with a hugely creditable third in the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud on very soft ground. ‘Very soft’ in France translates as heavy anywhere else.
That’s by far the strongest form on offer and he should make the most of the 5lb he receives from Deepone who has a penalty for winning a Group 2.
DAQMAN’S BETS:
2.20 Leopardstown (win 10)
BET 2.0pts win ATLANTIC COAST
2.55 Leopardstown (win 10)
BET 2.5pts win ALPHERATZ
3.30 Leopardstown (win 10, nap)
BET 12.0pts win ILLINOIS
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