CHELTENHAM PLAY: It’s an amazing day of Cheltenham tests today as market leaders in the Triumph Hurdle, the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and the RSA Chase clash head on at Leopardstown though, as yesterday, deep going may bring shock results.
FRUSTRATING DAY: Daqman had a hard day at the office yesterday, returning best form figures for each race of 13122231 but collecting only on a saver and on ‘Outsider Of The Day’ Brackloon High (3rd 16-1 from 21.0 on BETDAQ). Says Daqman: It happens to the best and it happens to the rest.
THE ‘PERFECT’ LAY: But there was something for him to smile about from his only lay of the day, Perfect Pasture, unplaced despite six wins in a row, putting Daqman 9-2 up on Pricewise in races both have bet in this year.
1.15 Leopardstown The last three runnings of this have produced one Triumph Hurdle winner and two runners-up, and the race is sure to shake up the market this afternoon.
The order-in today, if they run to their BETDAQ Triumph-market offers, will be Ivan Grozny (9.2), Plinth (11.5), Guitar Pete (17.5), Tiger Roll (36.0), Orgilgo Bay (54.0) and Henry Higgins (72.0).
And the morning offers for this juvenile hurdle reflected that order, but with the front two a long way clear at around evens and 2-1, 13-2 bar.
The pair, Plinth and Ivan Grozny, were separated by a head when they launched their hurdles careers in the same race at Leopardstown over Christmas, ‘Ivan’ franking the form with a 12-lengths stroll at Naas next time.
We saw yesterday how conditioning and stamina can outrun the form book when there’s a bog, and trainer Willie Mullins, while hoping ‘Ivan’ can reverse the placings with Plinth, warned in the trade paper yesterday that today’s ground would not be ideal.
Those looking for an outsider might reflect on this: you would expect rival owners Gigginstown (Tiger Roll 21.0 on BETDAQ) and J P McManus (Plinth and Henry Higgins 122.0) to be fielding the selected of their juvenile hurdlers in depth, or attempting to dominate the race tactically. They are. They do.
Sons of the stallion Authorized love the mud (22% strike rate, all progeny), so I shall punt the Gigginstown selected, Tiger Roll, but after yesterday’s sequence of seconds and thirds I’m dropping my stake back to win 20 points.
2.15 Leopardstown (Deloitte Novice Hurdle) Brave Inca and Champagne Fever both won this before their success in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, for which The Tullow Tank is 8.4 favourite on BETDAQ as I write, and Vautour 9.0.
Once again, the morning exchanges for today’s race reflect that market, almost precisely in fact, with just 0.50 points between the two.
Mullins seems more confident in this one, reckoning Vautour, who has already won on soft-heavy, will benefit from this step up in trip.
But the only direct form line (if such things are any good in the mud) is through Mr Fiftyone, a gelding of Jessica Harrington’s who was the equivalent of 16 lengths behind The Tullow Tank at Fairyhouse at the beginning of December and 12 behind Vautour at Punchestown a month ago.
Vautour seems to need to find two or three lengths. Will the extra distance do it for him? He’s the more lightly raced and should show the greater improvement. And again you’d think the Mullins’ yard had strength in depth in this category so its selected is always a bet.
2.45 Leopardstown (Dr P J Moriarty Novice Chase) Cooldine and Bostons Angel both used this as their stepping-stone to victory in Cheltenham’s RSA Chase.
The front pair in this, Ballycasey and Carlingford Lough, are together at the head of the RSA market at 8.8 and 9.8 in the BETDAQ ante-post lists.
Their betting order is the same today but Don Cossack has leapfrogged both to take the favourite’s spot in this three-horse trial, yet is biggest at 11.5 ante-post for the RSA.
If you think he’ll win today, you might fancy taking that 11.5 though, be warned, he has four Cheltenham entries, and is quoted for every one of them by bookmakers.
The form is topsy-turvy. Don Cossack was beaten by Morning Asembly at Punchestown, before that one lost out to Carlingford Lough at Leopardstown over Christmas. Yet Don Cossack beat Carlingford Lough at Fairyhouse.
The edge may again be the ground. Carlingford Lough is 1304P on soft-heavy, whereas Don Cossack is 111F231. Ballycasey is inexperienced over fences (one run, one win) and, though expecting a good run, trainer Mullins again worries about the ground.
It’s an open race, despite the small field, and the BETDAQ orange was a fabulous 100%, so that, overall, layers pay out what is paid in; whatever goes around comes around.
3.50 Leopardstown (Hennessy Gold Cup) This race was the swan-song for Florida Pearl and Beef Or Salmon – aged 12 and 11 – at the end of their illustrious careers. Can Tidal Bay do the same trick at aged 13?
Just like those two, Tidal Bay came back to form over Christmas, third in the Welsh Grand National, a year on from his defeat of the forever-bridesmaid First Lieutenant in the Lexus Chase.
But he hasn’t succeeded on ground officially returned as heavy since a novice hurdle in 2006, and horses of a single-figure age have scored 20-27 since the race’s inception.
First Lieutenant, second again in the Lexus of 2013, this time to Bobs Worth, is also without a win on heavy since his hurdling days.
Two years earlier – before his two Lexus seconds – he had been runner-up yet again at the same meeting, to Last Instalment when a novice.
Roi Du Mee loves the heavy, and finished in front of First Lieutenant (holds Lord Windermere and Lyreen Legend) twice in the autumn. You can forgive his shocking run at Haydock – he doesn’t travel – but he’s a free-running sort and hard to see him lasting the trip.
Last Instalment made an impressive comeback behind doubtful stayer Texas Jack in mid-January but there are two question-marks: will he ‘bounce’ from that (because of the preceding absence of 70-4 days).
And is he as good as he was when he slammed First Lieutenant six lengths in his novice days. I’ll take that chance, since I can buy at 7.6 this morning.
DAQMAN’S BETS are staked to win 20 points each
BET 1pt win and place TIGER ROLL (1.15 Leopardstown)
BET 12pts win (nap) VAUTOUR (2.15 Leopardstown)
BET 3pts win LAST INSTALMENT (3.50 Leopardstown
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