LEGER MEETING NAPS HAT-TRICK: On another winning Saturday, Daqman made it a hat-trick of naps and seven successful bets over the St Leger meeting with a 20-point winning banker plus a 10-pointer on Bondi Beach (WON 2-1) in the final Classic itself. Naps sequence:
WON 5-1 Gretchen (nap)
WON 7-4 Gutaifan (nap)
WON 8-13 Emotionless (banker)
ARC TRIALS AND IRISH ST LEGER: Daqman and Pricewise were deadlocked 1-1 yesterday, the season’s tally now 83-14 to Daqman. There’s another St Leger at the Curragh today – the Irish version – plus a card of Arc De Triomphe trials at Longchamp. Daqman v Pricewise: 3.05, 3.40 and 4.50 The Curragh; 2.40 and 3.10 Longchamp.
TIME FOR ABBAYE WINNER TO STRIKE AGAIN
1.00 Longchamp (Prix du Petit Couvert) Rae Guest’s Mirza bids for a hat-trick in this sprint, which would make it nine wins in 10 years for England (including one dead-heat).
The going is reported ‘good’ but rain was forecast for this morning, which will suit Mirza (officially rated 109). Goldream (113) needs the ground on top, but Abbaye winner Move In Time (112) will be suited by give though not by soft, which would swing it Catcall’s way.
Catcall’s narrow defeat by Muthmir in the early summer puts him up alongside these. In the same race the year before, he’d run second to Rangali.
I shall look to Goldream, Move In Time, Catcall, Rangali, Signs Of Blessing (stable in great form) and Elabela because all have had four or fewer races this year.
As well as the ground, the draw may also be crucial; both may be against Goldream, and I take Move In Time to win from Catcall.
FABRE’S ARC HOPE NEW BAY IS HERE TO STAY
2.40 Longchamp (Prix Niel) This race has had a terrific Arc-winning record in the last 20 years, with Carnegie, Helissio, Sagamix, Montjeu, Sinndar, Dalakhani, Hurricane Run and Rail Link all going on to Triomphe! But none has done the double for eight years now.
Andre Fabre, winner of the Niel 10 times, four times with Arc winners, is looking to his French Derby hero, New Bay, to step up in trip today and stamp himself an Arc contender.
A line through Dariyan – the colt he beat on the last day (1m 2f, Deauville, heavy) – says he has it all to do against Erupt, who was further in front of Dariyan at Chantilly (1m 4f, good) in June.
But a colt called Ampere was two lengths off Erupt in July but slammed four lengths by New Bay in August. That New Bay Deauville win on heavy suggests he will have no problem with the mile and a half.
ARABIAN QUEEN IN-FORM THREAT TO TREVE
3.10 Longchamp (Prix Vermeille) The Arc fortunes of Prix Vermeille winners had dipped since the heady days of Allez France and Three Troikas, but Zarkava (2008) and Treve (2013) restored the Vermeille fillies to the Arc pedestal.
Formerly for three-year-olds only, the race was opened up in 2004, since when the Classic generation has beaten four-year-olds 7-4. And two of their brightest stars in the class of 2015 take on Treve today.
However, the distance is again the poser: can Pretty Polly winner Diamonsandrubies (Legatissimo second) or Arabian Queen, the shock York International winner (Golden Horn second), step up here?
Both had their form boosted at The Curragh yesterday, but last time Treve faced the Classic generation, she stormed past Taghrooda (Oaks) and Kingston Hill (St Leger), both proven at today’s trip. And she has the assistance of a pacemaker today.
Looking for flaws in Treve, you could say she was beaten the last twice after long absences but both were at a time when she was struggling with health problems.
I’ve often won money following an animal on the up, particularly when there’s form no one else is willing to believe. Arabian Queen, 25-1 and 50-1, when third in the Nassau and winner of the International over Golden Horn, is that type of ‘hidden horse’, and I’d love to see this race ‘happen’ for David Elsworth.
IT’S ‘TERRITORIES RECLAIMED’ ON GOOD GROUND
3.45 Longchamp (Prix du Moulin de Longchamp) Three-year-olds have narrowly beaten older horses 11-10 since 1994, and this marks another clash of the generations: 2014 French Guineas winner, Karakontie, against this year’s Newmarket 2,000 Guineas runner-up Territories, and French 1,000 winner, Ervedya.
Ervedya has since beaten yesterday’s Irish Champion runner-up, Found, in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot and Territories has beaten Dutch Connection in the Prix Jean Prat.
But Karakontie has only just returned to action after a setback and defence of his Breeders Cup Mile in November is his target, so I’d not expect him to be high in his trajectory right now.
Though Peter Chapple-Hyam is enjoying an Indian summer, Arod is a nearly horse at Group-1 level, yet beats Esoterique on their running against Solow.
It was very soft when Esoterique beat Territories at Deauville, and such a deluge is not expect today. It gives Territories every chance of revenge.
4.25 Longchamp (Prix Foy) We haven’t had a Foy winner do the Arc double since Allez France (1974) and Sagace (1984) but three Foy losers went on to Arc glory.
King George hero Postponed should have the measure of Dolniya, Seema Classic winner and Coronation cup runner-up (Arc fifth last year), because of her 77-day absence from the track.
Baino Hope is consistent at Group-2 level but his biggest success has come on very soft ground. It’s not a race I like to bet in, but Hope would spring eternal if it rained heavily.
ST LEGER DOUBLE ON ‘ORDER’ AT THE CURRAGH
2.00 The Curragh (Bold Lad Sprint) Four-year-olds have won five out of six but all bar Twin Appeal are low drawn and that one is from a stable on a long losing run.
Ostatnia and Kasbah prefer the minimum trip and a line through Zunera suggests that the gritty staying sprinter Morselle (stall 20) has every chance at 10.5 on BETDAQ early mouse, with Foxy Forever likely to need the race, another one having been off the track 77 days.
2.35 The Curragh (Blandford Stakes) Three-year-olds are 6-2 up since 2007, and Bocca Baciata cruised to victory over Easter here on the last day.
Interesting to see the return of Tapestry (beat Taghrooda in the Yorkshire Oaks) after nearly a year off, prepping for the Ascot Champions meeting but it will be a major feat for her to overturn in-form three-year-olds.
3.40 The Curragh (Moyglare Stud Stakes) Lines to form have Ballydoyle in front of Tanaza (through Alice Springs), Great Page (through Most Beautiful) and, therefore, Blue Bayou (through Basharah).
But, on an easier surface, can she again beat Minding? That one ran very green throughout their contest over CD on the last day. Minding is value, certainly the place bet of the race, at 13.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
4.15 The Curragh (National Stakes) Gleneagles, Refuse To Bend, George Washington and Dawn Approach won the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket, Mastercraftsman the Irish Guineas, and New Approach the Epsom Derby, all launched from this race in the decade.
The ones most likely to from this field are Air Force Blue and Herald The Dawn in what could prove a Classic clash of O’Brien and Bolger two-year-olds.
4.50 The Curragh (Irish St Leger) After Bondi Beach proved lucky for me yesterday, I’ll go for a Ballydoyle Leger double via Order Of St George.
BETDAQ BETS (staked to win 20 points except the banker which is settled at SP)
BET 6pts win MOVE IN TIME (1.00 Longchamp)
BET 2pts win MORSELLE (2.00 The Curragh)
BET 5.8pts win BOCCA BACIATA (2.35 The Curragh)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) NEW BAY (2.40 Longchamp)
BET 3pts win TOSCANINI (3.05 The Curragh)
HIDDEN HORSE: BET 2.5pts win ARABIAN QUEEN (3.10 Longchamp)
BET 1.8pts win and 3.2pts place MINDING (3.40 The Curragh)
BET 4.5pts win TERRITORIES (3.45 Longchamp)
BET 7.6pts win ORDER OF ST GEORGE (4.50 The Curragh)
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