BIG DAY FOR BAAEED AS HE STEPS UP TO GROUP 1 AT LONGCHAMP: The most talked about horse of the year, Baaeed, hasn’t actually done much on the track but it’s the way he’s dismissed his fields in four out of four so far. Can he do the same at Group-1 level? Longchamp is chosen for a showdown against two hardened campaigners of Aidan O’Brien’s.
TOMORROW: Daqman on the wreckage of Saturday’s odds-on shots.
TUESDAY: St Leger countdown begins
SCIENCE WAS BORN TO WIN THIS
⭕ 12.23 Longchamp James Ferguson, who had his first Group winner with Mise En Scene at Goodwood last week, has another Group 3 in his sights at Deauville today.
But El Bodegon (Ryan Moore) is a winner on heavy at Sandown, and the ground may be drying up on him, so New Science (Ascot scorer on firm) is preferred to give Charlie Appleby his second win in this 2yo race.
New Science shares the same sire, Lope De Vega, with Lope Y Fernandez, one of Aidan O’Brien’s pair who attack Baaeed in the Prix Du Moulin de Longchamp (2.48).
MOULIN: MOORE PLANS ORDER IN
⭕ 2.48 Longchamp (Prix Du Moulin) Official ratings and Daqman preview. Good to soft.
121 BAAEED Unbeaten in all four races, with total winning distances of nearly 20 lengths in less than eight weeks in the summer.
But this is his first attempt at a Group 1 and he’s not beaten very much; it’s more the manner of his sauntering round the pack in cruise control, as at Goodwood (Group 3).
His trainer William Haggas won the Moulin with Aqlaam (2009) when the then four-year-old was rated 117.
Baaeed is just three, like nine winners this century, so gets 4lb age allowance from the older horses, Lope Y Fernandez, Victor Ludorum and Order Of Australia, but gives 4lb to the fillies Novemba and Snow Lantern.
118 LOPE Y FERNANDEZ Steps out of the shadow of Palace Pier who has beaten him twice this season, last time by only a length and a half in the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot. But has won just a Listed and a Group 3 in 16 starts since scoring on the debut.
Aidan O’Brien has won this with Rock Of Gibraltar (2202) and Circus Maximus (2019).
118 ORDER OF AUSTRALIA Rated 120 after beating his Ballydoyle stablemate, Circus Maximus, in the Breeders Cup Mile (firm).
But dropped a couple of pounds in the ratings this year after defeats by Palace Pier (twice) and Alcohol Free, with sole success when down a furlong to 7f with his sights lowered to the Group 2 Minstrel Stakes at the Curragh in July.
115 NOVEMBA German 1,000 Guineas winner, fourth behind Alcohol Free in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot, and on the last day lost ground quickly on the soft behind Mother Earth in a Group 1 at Deauville.
115 SNOW LANTERN The Frankel grey beat the 1,000 Guineas winner, Mother Earth, in the Falmouth (firm), with Alcohol Free third.
But either side of that was beaten on soft ground by Alcohol Free in both the Coronation Stakes and the Sussex Stakes.
115 VICTOR LUDORUM Trainer Andre Fabre has won this seven times, including last year with Persian King, and this four-year-old would go close on his Group-1 form (won the 2019 Lagardere and the 2020 French 2,000 Guineas).
But Group 3 his sole success since, and was nine lengths behind the winner in the Moulin last year.
VERDICT: Baaeed’s short odds are based on the potential of his style in beating lesser animals. Lope Y Fernandez, Order Of Australia and Snow Lantern would all like the ground to dry out in the Paris sunshine. If Palace Pier’s form is taken as key, then there’s very little between Lope Y Fernandez and Order of Australia. I see Ryan Moore trying to slow it down and then taking a couple of lengths out of the field on Order Of Australia. Can Baaeed then deliver his usual challenge at this much higher level?
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 10.0 Order Of Australia (Baaeed is also a Fortune Cookie).
GREAT CHANCE FOR ED’S IMPROVER
⭕ 3.15 York (Garrowby Stakes) Tabdeed’s defeats have been at the hands of a who’s-who of top sprinters: Glen Shiel, Dream of Dreams, Happy Romance, Summerghand.
He officially has 7lb in hand here but I’ve never fallen for a bridesmaid and I shall go for the improver (since he joined Ed Walker), Great Ambassador, third in the Stewards Cup (soft) and a convincing winner at Newmarket the last day (firm).
This race saw the rise to prominence of Starman as a three-year-old last year.
Second-season animals get very little help now at this trip (6f) and the only one in this, Fibethousandtoone, is no Starman.
Mill Reef runner-up on good ground last season, and less than five lengths off St Mark’s Basilica (Dewhust, soft), bogged down on heavy in the Commonwealth Cup.
He ran well here at York the last day but has his own ideas about the game. Gulliver is a CD winner, but would much prefer cover in a big field.
DAQMAN’S BETS
12.23 Longchamp, nap
BET 10pts win NEW SCIENCE
2.48 Longchamp (win 30)
BET 3.25pts win ORDER OF AUSTRALIA
3.15 York (win 10)
BET 7pts win GREAT AMBASSADOR
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