TWO WINNING BETS OUT OF TWO FOR DAQMAN’S LAYS LOGIC: Daqman’s new Lays Logic scored 2-2 against the favourites yesterday when he opposed Stone Soldier (unplaced 4-1 favourite) because of his high draw at Musselburgh and Defuture Is Bright (2nd 3-1 favourite) for his poor form. He has a back-and-lay bet today.
NEW VIEW OF THE STATS FOR THE BIG ONE AT FAIRYHOUSE: Tiger Roll’s defection means that Easter Monday’s Irish National, first of two grand nationals next week, has been turned upside down and those who follow the stats will want to see what rises to the top after the subsequent weights rise. Look out next Wednesday for an ABC guide to the Aintree National.
YOUNG CHASER CAN BE KING FOR A DAY AT MARKET RASEN: Daqman has three tips for the opening day of the Fairyhouse meeting today and one each from Market Rasen and Plumpton, which stages the Sussex Champion Hurdle. The nap is a young Alan King chaser at Rasen whose form has been doubly franked.
IRISH NATIONAL ROLL CALL ..
⚠️ HEADS UP Tiger Roll’s defection means that tomorrow’s Irish Grand National needs a new look at the stats, to bring in those now granted a winnable place in the handicap, headed – mark you – by the Tiger Roll stable’s Coko Beach!
⭕ 5.00 Fairyhouse, tomorrow (Irish Grand National) ABC STATS (form for those now at the top of the handicap was in Thursday’s Daqman.)
A WEIGHT: Carrying 11st or less.
B AGE: 17 out of 20 single-figure age; none aged 11 or more since 1997
C DISTANCE: Won over at least 3m (19 out of 20)
D COURSE: Raced at Fairyhouse before (14 out of 20)
E JOCKEY: Three winners claimed off in last eight years
ABCDE COKO BEACH
Going for a hat-trick after winning at Gowran Park (beat Run Wild Fred four lengths in the Thyestes): 7lb claim taken into account.
ABCD ATLANTIC SHORE
Second in the Amateur National (3m 1f heavy) at Punchestown on the first day of March.
ABCD ROBIN DE CARLOW
Classy novice; hurdles and chases, but not seen since beating Put The Kettle On in a novice chase at Tipperary in October, 2019.
ABCD RUN WILD FRED
Now 6lb better for the four-lengths defeat by Coko Beach.
ABD FITZHENRY
Placed in a series of big races, including second in the Ladbrokes Troytown.
ABDE ENJOY D’ALLEN
Improved 23lb this year on soft/heavy ground; eight times placed.
ABD BRACE YOURSELF
Favourite but beaten 13 lengths by Court Maid over the Fairyhouse CD in the Porterstown in November; 10lb better off now.
ABD DISCORDANTLY
22-lengths fourth in the Ladbrokes Troytown.
ABD MOYHENNA
Second in Grade 3 to Agusta Gold here and third to The Big Dog in the Punchestown Grand National Trial.
ABD SEMPO
Runner-up in Flyingbolt Novices Chase at Navan in March. Unexposed.
ABD TEN TEN
Second in the Leinster National at Naas in March; 9lb better with two-lengths winner, Scoir Mear; Fitzhenry was third.
ABD TOP MOON
Outsider in beginners’ chases until gamble just foiled, second for J P McManus at Thurles (2m 6f) 16 days ago. Stable out of form.
ACDE SCOIR MEAR
Third in the Troytown; fifth to Court Maid in the Porterstown; and behind Off You Go in the Leopardstown Chase. Galloped away with the Leinster National in March.
Daqman’s verdict tomorrow
TRIP GAULOISE SMOKING GUN
⭕ 3.20 Fairyhouse, today (Mares Novice Hurdle Championship Final) Annie Power and Honeysuckle are on the roll of honour for this in the last seven years.
For there to be such a star today, she would be a maximum of six years old and a major stable pick (W Mullins 4, Gavin Cromwell, Henry De Bromhead one each in the last eight years); they have strength in depth.
The betting and the jockey booking suggest that Gauloise (Paul Townend) is the leader of the Mullins squad.
Beaten by Roseys Hollow here at Fairyhouse in February, and found Cheltenham conditions too quick. In fact, both were down the field in the Mares’ Novices.
Today’s step up in trip could make all the difference to Gauloise. That’s how her pedigree reads.
Henry De Bromhead, who of course trained Honeysuckle, was responsible for the winner of that race at Cheltenham, and today fields Atlantic Fairy who has already scored over 2m 5f.
Atlantic Fairy beat Global Equity at Navan in February before Roseys Hollow beat the same mare at Fairyhouse over shorter.
It all looks very close but stamina will sort the three with major chances, of which Gauloise is the five-year-old; two years young against Atlantic Fairy and Roseys Hollow, both aged seven.
Of the rest, ‘Shark’ Hanlon complains that no one believes the form of his Skyace. I think it was a shock to you, too, Shark, since she started 66-1 and 28-1 for her back-to-back wins in the autumn!
If you can get me those prices, I’ll have more than a euro on, but she was only 8.0 when I put in a pound, thinking that Shark shouting ’she’s a certainty’ would be sure to compress the odds to 3-1 or 4-1. Back and Lay.
Betdaq value: 7.8 Gauloise
FRATERNAL CHASE IS FRANKED
⭕ 3.10 Market Rasen The further they went at Hereford (a similar right -handed track with a longish run-in) the further Fraternel was going to win. And that was in his first ever chase three weeks back.
Highly regarded by Alan King, who is looking for his 50th winner at Market Rasen. By coincidence, Tom Bellamy has just ridden his 51st for Alan King, Es Perfecto.
It certainly looks a perfect opportunity today for Fraternel to establish himself among the ranks of novice chasers.
The runner-up, Oski, has won since in good style at Uttoxeter, when he turned over a Dan Skelton favourite who had won at Kelso.
The main danger is probably Equus Dancer, whose form since the start of last year is P11U34, but that reduces to 11 on good, good to soft ground, though all his winning chase form is at left-handed Sedgefield.
GOAL! IT’S HANDED TO DIEGO
⭕ 3.26 Plumpton (Sussex Champion Hurdle) Paul Nicholls has won this twice from the last five runnings, and Angus Cheleda has ridden six winners for him this season.
That he’s still claiming 7lb brings Diego Du Charmil, Grade 1 and Listed winner in his time, down the weights among some ordinary handicappers.
Natural History was a class-3 winner over CD here on good ground in March, and is the young pretender, though the Gary Moore stable has a modest strike rate (25-216) as the season draws to a close, with its star names losing their glitter race on race.
Obviously, the yard usually does well at Fontwell and Plumpton but I am finding it increasingly difficult to put my money where their mouth is!
Fugitives Drift has not translated novice form to open handicaps, and Brandon Castle was beaten favourite in this race last time it was run in 2019.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE VALUE 5.0 Diego Du Charmil
DAQMAN’S BETS
3.10 Market Rasen (win 20 at 3.6 nap)
BET 5.75pts win FRATERNEL
3.20 Fairyhouse (win 10)
BET 1.75pts win GAULOISE
3.26 Plumpton (win 10)
BET 2.5pts win DIEGO DU CHARMIL
3.50 Fairyhouse (win 10 at 7.5)
BET 1.5pts win GABYNAKO
5.00 Fairyhouse (win 10 at 4.3)
BET 3pts win ANDY DUFRESNE
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