SO IT WAS ENGLAND 0, DAQMAN 0: Says Daqman: ‘I played worse than England yesterday, though I warned that a day of sprints would be a disaster.’ It happens – not very often – that Daqman is without a winner, so the score remains 36-9 over Pricewise going into Chantilly today and Royal Ascot on Tuesday.
ANOTHER TREVE TYPE TREAT TODAY? Treve, who runs at Ascot in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes on Wednesday, set up her brilliant career in today’s Prix De Diane, the French Oaks, also won recently by another Arc winner, Zarkava.
FABRE THE OAKS DICTATOR OF FRANCE
2.45 Chantilly (Prix De Diane, French Oaks) The outcome of today’s French Oaks appears to rest between three unbeaten fillies: Avenir Certain, Shamkala and Miss France.
Yes, I know Miss France has won only three of her five starts but her seasonal debuts were both farces. In fact, we were told by trainer Andre Fabre before her defeat in the Prix Imprudence that this was ‘just a prep race; that’s what trials are.’
What happened to home gallops, Andre? Have you rented them out to sheep farmers. Well, I am no sheep among punters, and I am not happy with this method of training. Nor should the stewards be.
Yes, these are fillies who have to be brought on by an expert hand, but we’re not talking education here, monsieur – she had three races as a two-year-old – but fitness.
Avenir Certain looks a banker today on form, taking a line through Xcellence, who was roughly four lengths behind her in the French 1,000 Guineas and four lengths in front of Miss France in the Imprudence.
But punters are stymied. We know that form is not genuine, and if we cannot judge on genuine form, then we know something’s wrong with the system, which relies on our input for its survival.
Miss France went on to win the Newmarket 1,000 Guineas, but she beat her old rival Lightning Thunder – a head in front when they had met in last year’s Oh So Sharp Stakes – by only a neck, and Lightning Thunder was slammed three lengths by Marvellous in the Curragh 1,000.
One conclusion, based on two seemingly genuine Guineas, is that Miss France is no great shakes as a Classic winner. But the vagaries of the weather interfere with that hypothesis.
Miss France’s big three races, from Oh So Sharp Stakes to Guineas, have been on a sound surface; the Curragh Guineas run on soft; Avenir Certain’s sole turf win from a trio of successes in Paris and Chantilly on soft.
What of Shamkala? She didn’t start out until October. She’s won this season on good and on soft, but she’s beaten ‘nothing’, among them Fabre second and third – maybe fourth – strings within the depth of his filly power.
On breeding Avenir Certain is by a new sire; gets the trip on the dam’s side but with no great names to source from; Miss France is strong on the dam’s sire and her sire has got French Derby and King George winners; Shamkala is by Pivotal, who’s had Dubai World Cup and Champion Stakes winners (both 10f).
As a Dansili, Miss France will prefer today’s drying ground; as a Pivotal, Shamkala will wish the sun would go down behind the chateau. Best outsider may be Lavender Lane: she’s had only two races – so had Treve when she won this – but her sire gets 10f specialists.
Stalls 1 and 2 have won the last three Dianes. The trainers score is Alain De Royer-Dupre 5, Andre Fabre 4, Jean-Claude Rouget 2. The owners? Aga Khan 6, the rest nowhere.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Andre Fabre is a man who gets his own way on the French tracks. Despite a virus in his yard, he’s steered Miss France through over shorter trips, including to win a Classic, when she probably needed further.
We have no way of knowing (even if they have run true every time) how good are Shamkala, Avenir Certain and Lavender Lane, but we do know on the betting whether we are on the right or wrong side of the probabilities.
I can’t back Shamkala at only around 13-8 and, between the two at 4-1 and 5-1 or so, Avenir Certain is the least known to us, whereas Miss France has already won a Classic and all the signs are she will improve for today’s trip. The 6.0 this morning on BETDAQ was ‘wrong’. I think M. Fabre may have fooled us again.
3.50 Cork (Munster Oaks) Three-year-olds are 1122112122 in this, and Dazzling, who was unbalanced, sprawling down the hill at Epsom, could be a different animal here at 7.0 on BETDAQ this morning, getting more than weight for age, 17lb lower than stablemate Venus De Milo.
Venus was not much loved by Ballydoyle fans, beaten both times when strongly fancied for the Curragh Oaks and The Yorkshire Oaks.
She was put well in her place by Treve in the Vermeille and again disappointed, dropped to Listed level on her reappearance. I doubt Joseph O’Brien could have done the 8st 9lb for Dazzling.
3.55 Salisbury (Cathedral Stakes) Team Hannon’s recent form in this is 12111, with the runner-up beaten a neck. Professor bids for a double in the race and a Hannon four-timer.
There should be plenty of pace on from Valonia and strictly that one’s third in a Group 2 should be better than Professor’s third in a Group 3.
Valonia is a year younger, getting nearly a stone allowance, including penalties, and with second-season runners in this race 14030301.
Eight runners suggests a bit of win and place Valonia at 7.4, with a (stakes-only) saver Professor, the value route. You should get a run for your money.
4.25 Cork Derby Cliff House narrowly denied Chance To Dance on the last day and it could be close again, both so lightly raced they are potentially improvers again.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 4pts win MISS FRANCE (2.45 Chantilly)
BET 3.3pts win (nap) DAZZLING (3.50 Cork)
BET 3pts win and place VALONIA, and 4pts win (stakes saver) PROFESSOR (3.55 Salisbury)
BET 3pts win on each CHANCE TO DANCE and CLIFF HOUSE (4.25 Cork)
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