NATIONAL KING DAQMAN SCORES AT 6-1: Daqman, who landed the two big Nationals last year (the Irish at 34.0 and the English at 50.0), was straight off the mark in the first running of the Edinburgh National yesterday with Dancing Shadow (WON 6-1 from 8.0 BETDAQ offers).
HE HAS 57-POINT LEAD OVER PRICEWISE: The big winner extended his lead in the search for value over Pricewise of the Racing Post to 14-5 this NH season. He now has a 57-point margin (Daqman +39, Pricewise -18). Daqman has 18 winning naps from 35 this year and seven bankers up out of 10.
FORTUNE COOKIES AT THE DOUBLE TODAY: One of Daqman’s hot spots in the challenge to Pricewise was the 14-1 Cheltenham Gold Cup Handicap win by Frodon in December. Frodon is back at Musselburgh today, while another Daqman Fortune Cookie, Douvan, is at Punchestown bidding for nine wins in a row.
FUTURE STAR FRODON A BANKER
2.10 Musselburgh (Scottish Future Champions’ Novices Chase) Brian Ellison (Apterix) has bagged this twice in the last four seasons, but Paul Nicholls comes up from Zummerzett, having swerved yesterday’s Scilly Isles at Sandown with Frodon.
Frodon was my early ‘find’ of the season, winning the Gold Cup Handicap at Cheltenham in December as a 14-1 Fortune Cookie.
Frodon is 1.65 on BETDAQ this morning, which makes him worth maximum stakes at 65% return on investment, in this case as a 30-point gold banker.
2.40 Musselburgh (Scottish Supreme Novices Hurdle Trial) Ellison again. Nicholls again. But they don’t have it all their own way this time.
The sequence horse is not with them but with Neil Mulholland. Like Frodon, his Dylan Thomas gelding Peter The Mayo Man has had a holiday break and gets the weather breaks here, too: it’s his preferred good ground.
Not much better than evens this morning but there are negatives: he has to carry penalties, so conceding weight all round, and he is really far too old to be considered for a Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. Only one of that age has won in 15 years; only two since 1971.
What is most damning is that all six horses immediately behind him, placed 2-3-4, in his wins at Warwick and Newbury have been beaten since.
High Secret beat nothing well at Taunton but looked potentially very useful, while Lough Derg Spirit, who drops back from Graded company, is a Point winner over 3m on good ground.
The Ellison runner, Stipulate, rated above High Secret on the Flat, was unlucky to sprawl on landing three out when second here on his hurdles debut but winner and third have both been beaten easily either before or since.
The Nicky Henderson yard is absolutely white hot at the moment with six winners out of nine and the experienced Lough Derg Spirit (3.2) looks the pick as long as they don’t dawdle and he can bring his stamina into play. He might take them all on quite early, as he did at Kempton.
ROCK SOLID FOR THE CHAMPION
3.10 Musselburgh (Scottish Champion Chase) The prize has been successfully prosecuted twice since 2012 by Donald McCain, whose Witness In Court is another likely to make the running.
But he may have company up front from Indian Temple, who made all at Ayr (2m 4f) in the autumn and comes here fresh after recovery from overstretching at a fence when aiming high at Newbury on the last day.
Solar Impulse would win this on his Grand Annual form for Paul Nicholls but hasn’t been the same horse over further for Chris Kellett.
Nicholls will know all about Solar Impulse, saddling San Benedeto here but he, too, has been a nearly horse since his success in the Spring.
Baltimore Rock, useful for David Pipe, has been overfaced by Neil Mulholland (against Douvan twice) and didn’t travel (either to the races or in the race!) when well backed for a big handicap at Fairyhouse last month. Should show his class today.
3.40 Musselburgh (Scottish Albert Bartlett Trial) Here’s a race in which the handicapper must be wrong. He rates Ballycrystal, Monbeg Charmer and Soupy Soups as ‘the same horse’, all on 130.
He ducks giving Overland Flyer any rating at all but, collaterally, he should be on 137 for beating Stay Out Of Court at Taunton or even 146 if you assess him on fourth-placed Toviere.
Like Baltimore Rock in the previous race he is between 2.3 and 2.6 on BETDAQ this morning, so at level stakes, we’re not going to make a fortune, so we’ll trust in our selections with some Daq Multiples.
4.10 Musselburgh (Pertemps Qualifier) Alzammaar gave two stone to the winner and was beaten only half a length on his return and trainer Sam England is back in form, too. Her string had a break in the middle of last month but she has come back with figures of 210022101.
There’s not much at the revised weights between Clondaw Kaempfer and Arthurs Secret after their one-two over CD on the first of the year, but it’s no secret that Arthur is a bridesmaid (form figures 2322).
Wotzizname won his novice hurdles very easily but the ground may not suit Aubusson, who returns to hurdling, as did Oscar Rock when he won over shorter than this at Market Rasen.
Clondaw Kaempfer (7.4 BETDAQ) seems to have found his trip and might have enough pull on Nicky Henderson’s glass horse Cup Final (8.2) (13lb difference), who won this race last year off a stone lower but has clearly been got up for it again.
AUVERGNAT IS BANKS IMPROVER
2.30 Punchestown (Cross Country) Ballyboker Bridge goes for a hat-trick but with not much to spare over Enda Bolger’s Auvergnat from a similar banks race over this CD in November, and 4.0 BETDAQ offer Auvergnat should improve at only seven years of age.
3.00 Punchestown (Tied Cottage Chase) Douvan!
4.00 Punchestown (Grand National Trial) Only two winners carried more than 10st 9lb in the decade, and there were only two of double-figure age.
For six seasons now punters have got it right, with no winner since 2010 bigger than 8-1 at SP, so it’s a question of spotting the well-fancied younger horse.
Some will look no further than last year’s winner, Bonny Kate, up 13lb but a cracking third in the Ladbrokes Troytown Chase at Navan in November and third again in the Thyestes last month.
Runner-up behind her in this Punchestown trial a year ago, Baie Des Iles meets her on the same terms, while Folsom Blue (3rd) and Captain Von Trappe (5th) were so far behind that the weight changes are hardly likely to nake a difference on similar ground.
But what could transform Folsom Blue, who won this trial in 2014, are cheekpieces but hard to bet on it.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points)
GOLD BANKER: 30pts win (nap) FRODON (2.10 Musselburgh)
BACK 6pts win AUVERGNAT (2.30 Punchestown)
BACK 10pts win LOUGH DERG SPIRIT (2.40 Musselburgh)
BACK 12pts win BALTIMORE ROCK (3.10 Musselburgh)
BACK 12pts win OVERLAND FLYER (3.40 Musselburgh)
BACK 3pts win and place and each CLONDAW KAEMPFER and CUP FINAL (4.10 Musselburgh)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 4 x 3pt win trebles and 1pt win acca Frodon (2.10 Musselbugh), Douvan (3.00 Punchestown), Baltimore Rock (3.10 Musselburgh) and Overland Flyer (3.40 Musselburgh)
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