BIG-RACE WINNER AND THREE NAPS UP OUT OF FOUR: Educate your friends! Tell them about the astonishing value on BETDAQ on yet another magic Saturday for top tipster Daqman, who landed the Cambridgeshire and his third nap in four days with Vorda (WON 11-8), following Grandeur (WON 6-4) and Caucus (WON 15-8).
CAMBRIDGESHIRE ONE-TWO AT 14.0 AND 24.0: Daqman landed the Cambridgeshire one-two with Educate (WON 8-1) and Code Of Honour (2nd 12-1) but tipped them at 14.0 and 24.0 as BETDAQ beat the bookies by a staggering amount. Daqman tipped in a list of offers which added up to 103% but the bookies’ Total SP was a massive 142%.
99 POINTS PROFIT IN FIVE DAYS: It was Daqman’s fourth winning day in the last five, with a total profit to recommended stakes in that time of 99 points. Here’s his day yesterday:
WON 11-8 BERKSHIRE (doubled with the nap)
WON 11-8 VORDA (15-point nap)
WON (place lay) DOVER’S HILL (pulled up 4-1 favourite), Rob Conti 2nd 25-1
WON 8-1 EDUCATE (Cambridgeshire from 14.0), 2nd Code Of Honour 12-1 (from 24.0), 5th Seek Again 14-1 from 21.0 (five bets)
4.15 The Curragh (Beresford Stakes) If ever a race was dominated by one stable it’s the Beresford by Ballydoyle, with 26 wins in 50 years.
Vincent O’Brien saddled 14 of them between 1962 and 1991, including two of the greatest of all racehorses, Nijinsky (1969) and Sadlers Wells (1983).
And Aidan O’Brien has scored 12 times, including a triple hat-trick, among them St Nicholas Abbey, and he’s going for yet another treble today after back-to-back wins in the last two years.
The modern Ballydoyle winners haven’t all been stars and there was mixed reaction to Geoffrey Chaucer’s Leopardstown debut win in a modest crawl for a three-horse race in July but the general concensus was that this massive son of Montjeu needed time to fill out. He’s had 10 weeks.
His main rival appears to be Exogenesis, third to Coventry winner War Command in the Futurity five weeks ago, but it’s a big day for Johnny Murtagh.
Fresh from his Cambridgeshire winner on Saturday as a jockey, he has his sights on the 2014 Classics as a new trainer, here saddling himself up on Altruistic, a Naas maiden winner.
Since Altruistic is a Galileo out of a Rock of Gibraltar mare, Johnny would love to beat the Ballydoyle hot-pot today, confident enough of the colt’s future to have entered him in the Racing Post Trophy, with the Curragh Guineas and Epsom Derby pencilled in for 2014.
Altruistic, reportedly mentally immature at Naas, has also been given time but it’s a worry for connections that there have been no winners to come from that maiden, whereas the runner-up to Geoffrey Chaucer has scored easily since.
That was the filly, Tarfasha, a runner today in the Park Stakes (2.40), where she clashes with the John Oxx daughter of Sea The Stars, My Titania.
A win in that race for Tarfasha would push Geoffrey Chaucer in to long odds on, and an earlier success for Ballydoyle’s Guerre (3.15 Blenheim Stakes) wouldn’t help the price either. Get on early BETDAQ offers!
4.30 Epsom (The Apprentices’ Derby) The 18-year-old Oisin Murphy, who landed a 9,260-1 four-timer last Saturday, including the Ayr Gold Cup, is on 29 winners this year.
But he’s still trailing Robert Tart (50 winners), Thomas Brown (48) and William Twiston-Davies 36, with Philip Prince (23) and Michael Murphy (22) behind him, just in front of Shelley Birkett (18), all of them with rides in this Derby today.
However, percentage-wise, Oisin and Thomas Brown are a long way best of these lucky-seven claimers, who make up half the field for this coveted race over the famous Classic course.
Needless to say, big-odds winners abound in a race like this: 25-1, 20-1 and 16-1 in the last six seasons, against just one favourite. The stats also say that six of the seven of these Derbys since the race’s inauguration have been won by three-year-olds.
Thomas Brown, therefore, becomes four times a stand-out in this: he’s one of the top two boys for winners, he’s leading this field of claimers for percentage success (19%), he’s riding a three-year-old, and that three-year-old has a plum draw.
Low numbers obviously have an advantage, railing round the left-hand bends. That can be overcome by an experienced jockey but it’s a hard task for a boy, as the results of this race underline.
Winners by stall in the seven years have been 3, 8, 8, 7, 4, 6 and 6. Thomas’s mount, Getaway Car, is in 4 but Robert Tart (on Freddy Q) and Oisin Murphy (on Omar Khayyam) have extra work to do from 10 and 12.
The market is strongly in favour of Aloha on BETDAQ as I write but, surely, she has to be a lay, as a soft-ground winner on today’s drying surface, drawn 13, and with her rider, Ross Atkinson, without a winner this year, five places only to show for 25 mounts.
Second favourite, Bee Jay Kay, won a seller last time and her only other success came two grades lower than today’s class 4. Certavi, the only remaining offer in single figures other than Getaway Car, is in stall 14.
There’s a doubt about this trip for all the others low drawn, with the exception of Saint Helena, who should improve for the better ground on her CD sixth behind Certavi and Freddy Q on the soft a fortnight ago.
Gerard Butler has been in top form lately and I took 7.4 Getaway Car on BETDAQ this morning. He’s up in the weights but strikes me as an improver (Mediceans often blossom late) and he’s pretty versatile, having won at Kempton, Salisbury (turf) and Wolverhampton.
The 4.10 and 4.45 Musselburgh have fallen to three-year-olds so far, and Alcaeus (4.10) should resume winning ways back home on turf, while Plunder and Tussie Mussie seem to have the 4.45 between them.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 10pts win on each ALCAEUS (nap, 4.10 Musselburgh) and GEOFFREY CHAUCER (4.15 The Curragh) plus 5pts Daq Multiples double the two.
BET 3pts win GETAWAY CAR (4.30 Epsom)
BET 5pts win TUSSIE MUSSIE and 1.7pts win (stakes saver) PLUNDER (4.45 Musselburgh)
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