BREEDERS CUP CROWNS TARNAWA THE NEW ENABLE: Tarnawa is the new Enable, says Daqman after she won the Breeders Cup last night for newly-crowned Irish champion jockey Colin Keane. She gave the Daqman Fortune Cookie’s victory at the two-day Keeneland carnival, a profit on four bets named in advance, or break-even if you waited for SP.
DAQMAN RETAINS THE TITLE OF TOP VALUE TIPSTER: Daqman finished the Flat season 54-33 in front of Pricewise of the Racing Post, and both their value challenge and the NH Fortune Cookies start a new season today with bull’s-eye bets and a nap at Navan. End-of-season accounts in the next two days.
THE CHAMPIONS OF A NEW ERA
The world turned yesterday. Judgment, finesse and empathy took over from the raging-bull American style.
I’m talking about the jockey talents of two names who have the whole of the 2020s before them, and will (I predict right now) be hired by big-time owners and trainers as the new Ryan Moore and Frankie Dettori.
They are the champion jockeys of Ireland and France, Colin Keane and Pierre-Charles Boudot, who gave exhibition performances at Keeneland on a fantastic day for Europe.
In fact, the style for race riding at its best was set by Tom Eaves, with a superb Breeders Cup Sprint victory on Kevin Ryan’s Glass Slippers, the partnership that won the 2019 Abbaye and the Flying Five at the Curragh in September.
But then the modern Lester Piggott came on from off the bench, his booked mount for the day withdrawn, taking the disguise of willing deputy in the colours of two outsiders trained by James Fanshawe and Aidan O’Brien.
Some deputy! Pierre-Charles Boudot had ridden more than 200 winners this year, and the outcome was that he scored on both chance mounts at 12-1 and 40-1.
It seemed to be a huge shock to the American commentators who managed to correct the instincts of their tongue to call him Bu-dott and rightly asked: ‘Who is this guy, Bew-dough?’
Boudot hauled in the U.S. favourite for the Filly And Mare, Rushing Fall, a nail-biting inch by inch, partnering the Opera third, Audarya. How dare ya beat the yanks?
What a race the Opera would turn out to be when Colin Keane followed up on its winner, creating a new diva by flying down the outside to judge to perfection victory for Tarnawa and Dermot Weld in the Breeders Cup Turf itself.
But not before ‘Buddy’ Boudot (the American commentators loved him now) had delivered the day’s devil ride, driving Order Of Australia (40-1) through to win the Breeders Cup Mile from his Aidan O’Brien stablemates Circus Maximus and Lope Y Fernandez.
Tarnawa, only 8-1 with Ladbrokes for the 2021 Arc de Triomphe, is the new Enable in my book.
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINNER..
⚠️ HEADS UP: The NH Fortune Cookies’ (early birds) go straight into battle on day one of the jumps season proper, when Easywork (2.45 Navan) makes his debut over fences for Gordon Elliott.
It’s a race which was the first leg of a five-timer for Footpad (2017) and has been won the last two years by Joseph O’Brien, who goes for the hat-trick today with a team of four.
Easywork was second in the Ballymore at Cheltenham in March to Envoi Allen, whose own chasing debut was an impressive round at Down Royal at the end of last month.
⭕ 1.35 Navan (Ladbrokes Troytown Chase) Won last year by Chris’s Dream but the preserve of Gordon Elliott four years in succession (2014-17) with the likes of Empire Of Dirt (we were on it!), who would then finish second in the Irish Gold Cup.
Elliott, who has TEN in the field today – PLUS one of the reserves – ran SEVEN in the race a year ago.. and the nearest he got to the winner was 30-lengths ninth!
Aforementioned (on the BETDAQ Betting Exchange 17.5) must surely be involved at the business end today, after being ridden clear the last twice at Clonmel and then in Limerick’s Munster Grand National (we were on!)
The second and third at Clonmel had both won immediately before and after the race, and the Limerick success came on the soft.
The negative is that the seven-year-old faces an 11lb rise overall for those back-to-back wins, and is today hiked in quality to a Grade B handicap, though I still think he can hold off the Limerick runner-up Portmore Lough, hampered during the race.
Portmore Lough was third in the Troytown a year ago, when Fitzhenry was second before being beaten only half a length by Roaring Bull in the Grade B at Leopardstown over Christmas, with Plan of Attack third.
The Jam Man is also a Grade B winner. That was a hurdle in February not a chase but he had success over fences in the summer of 2019 and has been in fine form on the Flat recently.
The booking of Paul Townend catches the eye and he looks leniently weighted over fences, a stone lower than his hurdles rating : 5.0 BETDAQ saver.
Discordantly looks a strong stayer in the making but that will be tested today when Chavi Artist has a 10lb pull and the extra distance with which to gain revenge after their one-two at Galway over shorter last month.
Elwood is another from the Elliott pack. Delta Work’s half-brother, he was third at Naas to Carefully Selected, the subsequent odds-on favourite for the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham.
Death Duty seemed to be on the way to the top when he beat Rathvinden in the Drinmore of 2017 but he’s struggled with minor injuries and is nine now.
VERDICT: Elwood and Death Duty have both been backed but I’ll stick with the Aforementioned form trajectory and the apparent jammy weight mark for the favourite.
IT’S 3-2-1 IF THE CAP FITS
⭕ 2.25 Sandown (Future Stars Intermediate Chase) Sandown in its wisdom offers £13,688 to the winner of this in a desperately small turn-out.
I moan about this regularly. It’s the norm for novices, or strictly those ‘in between’ chasers, making the transition to ‘grown-up company’, as the name of this race implies.
If the ratings work out, then the 1-2-3 should be the reverse of their positions on the card, with If The Cap Fits on 162 (plus 6lb) over Pym (150) and Dominateur (141) but, of course, there are tactics to consider and that tough sequence of railway fences to negotiate.
⭕ 3.00 Sandown Alan King is 4-7, including another superb surge from Sceau Royal at Wincanton yesterday. He’s hoping for improvement from his sole Sandown runner, Sheshoon Sonny, who has grown up at home over the summer. BETDAQ 13.0.
The two favourites here, conceding 11lb to Sonny, are both hard to handled: Sa down is hardly the track for Faivour’s habit of hanging left, and Nicky henderson resorts to a hood for Mister Coffey.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.35 Navan (win 50, win 10)
BULL’S-EYE BET 3.25pts win AFOREMENTIONED
BET 2.5pts win THE JAM MAN
FORTUNE COOKIES (early birds)
2.45 Navan (nap)
BET 10pts win EASY WORK
3.00 Sandown (win 20, win 10)
BET 1.6pts win SHESHOON SONNY
BET 5.5pts win MISTER COFFEY
DAQ MULTIPLES
2 x 1pt win trebles
IF THE CAP FITS (2.25 Sandown)
x
EASY WORK (2.45 Navan)
x
SHESHOON SONNY (3.00 Sandown)
MISTER COFFEY (3.00 Sandown)
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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