HAPPY NEW YEAR TO THE CHAMPION: With eight winners since Boxing Day, champion-tipster Daqman’s Christmas week was centred on champion-trainer Paul Nicholls’ bid to stay at the top and target Cheltenham. Both winning Fortune Cookies wonfor the Ditcheat yard, with both now top festival contenders.
WON 11-4 BRAVEMANSGAME (King George to the Gold Cup)
WON 11-10 HERMES ALLEN (Challow Hurdle to the Ballymore)
BRAVE MAN’S GAME AT CHELTENHAM: Cheltenham tops the list of meetings this afternoon and it will be a brave man who can find the winner of the big-field New Year’s Day Chase. Daqman previews that one and the Relkeel, hoping to boost his 9-6 lead over Pricewise of the Racing Post.
A HAPPYGOLUCKY NEW YEAR
⭕ 1.55 Cheltenham (New Year’s Day Chase): Midnight River and Il Ridoto, third and fourth, in the Autumn Gold Cup on the old course here, now face off over half a furlong further on the new course.
Stolen Silver was favourite that day but unseated and finished lame. The market should tell us whether he’s fancied to redeem himself. (I grabbed 13.5 on BETDAQ in case the money came).
Simply The Betts, who ran up to the grey in the Silver Trophy here in April, has a 12lb pull with which to make up 11 lengths (plus David Maxwell’s 3lb)
Brave Seasca stepped up to senior company at Aintree in early December and won so easily it’s cost him a 9lb rise.
Happygolucky, in successive seasons fourth in the Martin Pipe and runner-up in the Ultima, made a massive return from a long holiday in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle in November.
Third to L’Homme Presse, he was giving 13lb to the runner-up Into Overdrive, who was one of my Christmas winners when taking the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby on Boxing Day.
Shakem Up’Harry has some excellent form in the book but has always disappointed at Cheltenham.
War Lord has won small-field races but been placed without winning when up against such as Edwardstone, Millers Bank and Greaneteen, and Joe Tizzard’s team is currently only 1-23.
Fantastic Lady is not short on courage but seems better against her own sex, and those who reckon Coconut Splash have to ask, does he really want this, after form figures of 3223323?
Betdaq Betting Exchange 12.5 Happygolucky, 13.5 Stolen Silver
MARES’ FORM IS ROCK SOLID
⭕ 2.30 Cheltenham (Relkeel Hurdle): LAYS LOGIC: It will be a sad day for progressive hurdlers if Brewin’upastorm or Dashel Drasher – both 10 years old today – beat them this afternoon.
In fact, I can find only one winner – ever – over the age of eight, and that was Rock On Ruby (2014) who, at nine, had been champion hurdler two years earlier.
Today’s race has seven of the nine delcared rated between 150 and 153. Six of them have won between two and four of their last five starts.
FORM: I was a Wholestone man when he won the Relkeel for Nigel Twiston-Davies in 2018, and I Like To Move It won the Greatwood (2m) here at Cheltenham in November, his third win on the course.
When ‘Twiston’ described that victory as ‘absolutely superb’ off 12st, he was targeting the Champion Hurdle, whereas today is 2m 4f. But the gelding is related to winners up to 3m, and I hope for stamina and speed.
If I were his owner, I would very much want to broaden his horizon, with Constitution Hill and State Man now so dominant for the 2m title.
Meanwhile, because he has Constitution Hill, Nicky Henderson is redirecting his Gerry Fielden winner, First Street, to today’s 2m 4f, after dropping him down in distance this year, despite two strikes at 2m 3.5f and 2m 5f last autumn.
Could Paul Nicholls foil all these plans with Knappers Hill? He’s won four in a row, including the Silver Trophy at Chepstow at around today’s trip and made all in the Elite at Wincanton. Never stops improving but carries a 6lb penalty.
Botox Has goes with the pace. He beat Brewin’upastorm a head in the National Spirit Hurdle at Fontwell in February but is 12lb worse off, which seems to put him among the oldies.
I find it hard to choose between Knappers Hill and First Street among the young ones but Nico De Boinville seemingly chose another Nicky Henderson player, the Mares Hurdle winner at both Cheltenham and Punchestown, Marie’s Rock, so I’m back down the rabbit-hole.
Marie’s Rock gets weight all round and a mare won the race last year, Stormy Ireland, the very one who ran second to Marie’s Rock in the Punchestown Mares’ Champion, with former champion-hurdler, Epatante, third.
BETDAQ value 4.6 Marie’s Rock and I Like To Move It
STATTLER IS HERE TO STAY
⭕ 2.15 Tramore FORTUNE COOKIE Stattler has raised his rating 12lb in the last year, winning from 2m 5f to the 3m 6f of the NH Chase at Cheltenham.
He gets weight today, but Minella Indo hasn’t won since his surprise Cheltenham Gold Cup win of 2021, coming alive again only at the festival where he is win 2, placed 2.
It’s two years since he won elsewhere, and I note that Willie Mullins, who has seven runners at Fairyhouse, has Paul Townend riding Stattler and Co at Tramore.
⭕ 3.05 Cheltenham Thomas Darby, the Long-Distance Hurdle winner at Newbury last November, drops down from Graded company but doesn’t have the recent form of another 10-year-old, Call Me Lord.
Wilde About Oscar finished fast at Sandown behind Dolphin Square and Call Me Lord, seemingly returning to his Listed-level winning form (3-4 in 2020-21). BETDAQ 9.9.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.55 Cheltenham(win-50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 4.25pts win HAPPYGOLUCKY
BET 4pts win STOLEN SILVER
2.15 Tramore
FORTUNE COOKIE (nap)
BET 20pts win STATTLER
2.30 Cheltenham (win 20)
BET 6pts win I LIKE TO MOVE IT
BET 6pts win MARIE’S ROCK
3.05 Cheltenham (win 20)
BET 2.25pts win WILDE ABOUT OSCAR
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