DAQMAN LAYS GUINEAS FAVOURITE AND HAS THE WINNER AT 10-1: Daqman yesterday gave the thumbs down to the odds-on Guineas favourite Pinatubo – his third consecutive winning lay – and chose the form of Kameko (WON 10-1) to land a double whammy on the race. The win and place Kameko won 60 points as one of two Classic bull’s-eye bets, his first of the season. He also scored with 8-1 and 7-2 shots.
✔️ WON 10-1 KAMEKO (2,000 Guineas)
✔️ WON LAY (3rd 5-6) PINATUBO (2,000 Guineas)
✔️ WON 8-1 NAYEF ROAD (Sagaro Stakes)
✔️ WON 7-2 FAR ABOVE
NOW FOR THE 1,000 AND ANOTHER BULL’S-EYE HIT AT BETDAQ 15.0: It’s the turn of the fillies today and Daqman, who opens with a 6.0 nap, has a 15.0 outsider for the 1,000 Guineas, though can’t discount a Guineas double for Oisin Murphy on Millisle after Kameko yesterday.
🔹 CLOAK IS BIG BETDAQ VALUE AT 15.0
🔹 FRANKIE FIRST IN LINE FOR SUCCESS
🔹 HOLD ON ELARQAM! IT’S A CLOSE CALL
CLOAK IS BIG BETDAQ VALUE AT 15.0
⭕ 3.35 Newmarket (1,000 Guineas) For the last 15 seasons, it’s been hard to find an English-trained winner of the first fillies’ Classic. When they have happened, they’ve been Team Hannon’s.
And their Cloak of Spirits, well connected and unexposed, has been a plunge horse in today’s race, in from 16-1 and 20-1 to 9-1 in places yesterday. Back to 11-1 and 12-1 now the money is down, but a value 15.0 in BETDAQ exchanges this morning.
The Irish have come out tops time and again in those 15 years from, in second place, the French who have not been able to travel over for today.
The ratings and Group-race success of Love (Aidan O’Brien) and Millisle (Jessica Harrington) put Ireland’s sole starters top of my stats, published Thursday, with the English favourite, Quadrilateral only third. Final analysis:
1️⃣ MILLISLE Always rely on what you see with your own eyes. I watched this one run down Queen Mary winner, Raffle Prize, in the Cheveley Park, once she hit the rising ground here at Newmarket after that one had finished a neck second to the colts in the Prix Morny.
Oisin Murphy said he had achieved his first dream – champion jockey – and now wanted to spend his time trying to win an English Classic. Job done yesterday. Thanks to Kameko he got it in one.
Maybe Millisle can add another on Murphy’s trajectory to his idol Frankie Dettori’s record of 19 English Classics. Frankie finished second on the Ballydoyle gamble Wichita yesterday, and could go close here on Shimmering, with John Gosden so hot (11 winners since the resumption).
2️⃣ CLOAK OF SPIRITS Within half a length of Daahyeh in the Rockfel, so wouldn’t have to step up much to play a part in the finish.
Cloak of Spirits’ stablemate Dark Lady beat Millisle and Summer Romance at Salisbury in September before flopping behind Millisle in the Cheveley Park, and it’s hard to see beyond anything but my leading five.
3️⃣ QUADRILATERAL had almost two lengths to spare over Love (third) when she won the Fillies Mile. The unbeaten Frankel filly didn’t see a racecourse until mid-August and did everything asked of her (3-3).
But it’s a worry to see her in a tongue-tie today. Ironically, right on the start of my time-line of Irish and French domination, it’s 15 years since Virginia Waters won in a tongue-tie for Aidan O’Brien.
4️⃣ LOVE Raffle Prize turned over Daahyeh on the July Course, before Love did the same thing in the Moyglare. So they come out pretty much equal, but inferior to Millisle and Quadrilateral.
5️⃣ SHIMMERING As in the 2,000, it depends very much which of the big three have grown over the winter and thrived during the sunshine delay to the season, mindful of potential improvement from the less exposed Cloak of Spirits, Shimmering and Summer Romance.
Shimmering didn’t appear until late October, and won a Ladbrokes novice stakes in December. She looks short on experience for this level but is the sole runner for John Gosden.
She’s 12-1 and 14-1 with bookmakers though, yet again, was bigger value on BETDAQ at 19.0 this morning. You’re too kind, BETDAQ layers; I can’t back them all.
FRANKIE FIRST IN LINE FOR SUCCESS
⭕ 1.50 Newmarket John Gosden took this twice in three years and First In Line, who can win after a break, was a close second in a big field here in October.
Rain getting into the surface would probably scupper him: in the first two six times out of seven; the sad seventh was on the soft.
Alan King loves nothing better than to beat the Flat trainers at their own game, particularly at HQ, and he did just that when Trueshan drew clear of First In Line in the Old Rowley Cup in October.
First In Line (BETDAQ 6.0) has 7lb with which to get his own back. Does Alan King have his fit enough to see off this revenge bid by John Gosden, who has been absolutely flying?
Kingy’s short shots, including a favourite, have failed among seven losers in a row since the resumption; in fact, the Flat sequence goes back a total of 12 losers since February 15 and he’s had his last nine runners beaten over Jumps.
Communique won the Jockey Club Stakes (Group 2) here last May, his second CD success, but the race was run in slow time and both the favourite, Coronet, and the subsequent Coronation Cup winner, Defoe, failed to perform.
It was a similar story in July when the favourite, Masar, had an off day and was last, or am I not giving Communique the credit he deserves? We shall see.
Dashing Willoughby tried to sneak a long lead in the Masar race but faded, and his best form is over further on soft ground.
As three times a winner over 1m 6f, Secret Advisor is also expected to be staying on late. Ghostwatch is a third contestant here with his best form at that trip.
⭕ 2.25 Newmarket I’m with Oisin Murphy and Andrew Balding for a horse – third in the Cambridgeshire – which always runs to peak form after a break and never seems to catch the eye of the handicapper.
It will be interesting to pay to see whether the receipt of 7lb will enable Good Birthday to handle Davydenko, who threatens to be one of those Sir Michael Stoute older-horse improvers. They’re both about the same price between 2-1 and 5-2.
HOLD ON ELARQAM! IT’S A CLOSE CALL
⭕ 2.40 Haydock (Brigadier Gerard Stakes) Four of the nine have defected and one of them, Sangarius, was withdrawn yesterday. It’s hard to know what’s wanted.
To keep my challenge to Pricewise going (I’m leading 3-0), I’ll take a slice of Elarqam (at around 6-4), who will like the cut in the ground and whose Mark Johnston stable has had 12 winners since the resumption.
Sangarius is officially half a stone behind Elarqam, and the Cambridgeshire winner Lord North still has 8lb to find with him on the book. But both are four-year-olds, with a year in hand to improve and catch up on him. It will be close.
⭕ 3.00 Newmarket (Pretty Polly Stakes) On news from my man in the long grass, I took Alpen Rose at fancy prices for the 1,000 Guineas but Charlie Appleby keeps her to a Listed race up two furlongs to 1m 2f.
I shall expect a good run from Alpen Rose (BETDAQ 8-1) here or I’ll get the grass mown and expose my man to a ‘wigging’ from the trainer, with social distances to be vastly increased in the future.
Tempo Vuela is the talking horse; she could be another one for Gosden and Dettori, but Waldkonig ran like a crab yesterday, that sideways movement of a horse with problems.
⭕ 3.15 Haydock BETDAQ 5.0 offer Happy Power goes well fresh and enjoys juice in the ground. Who better to side with than the Guineas-winning trainer, Andrew Balding.
DAQMAN BETS
1.50 Newmarket (win 30)
BET 6pts win (nap) FIRST IN LINE
2.25 Newmarket (win 10)
BET 4pts win GOOD BIRTHDAY
2.40 Haydock (win 10)
BET 6pts win ELARQAM
3.00 Newmarket (win 20)
BET 3pts win ALPEN ROSE
3.15 Haydock (win 20)
BET 5pts win HAPPY POWER
3.35 Newmarket (win 50 & place 10, win 30)
BULL’S-EYE BET: 3.5pts win and place CLOAK OF SPIRITS
BET 7pts win MILLISLE
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