WHO’S PRICE WISE? DAQMAN OF COURSE AT 12-1: Though the Coral Welsh Grand National turned out a farce – 13 horses failed to finish at Chepstow – Daqman landed 46 points profit at Sandown with a 12-1 value winner and a 5-2 nap, and he finished the day 14-6 ahead of Pricewise, 46 points clear (+ 48 to +2) for the season so far.
WON 12-1 BUYWISE (16.0 on BETDAQ)
WON 5-2 CALL ME LORD (nap) Gassin Golf 3rd 7-1
FAUGHEEN: WILLIE STILL BAFFLED
Big Brother was watching! After tests proved negative, Irish racing’s security squad scrutinised the Leopardstown CCTV footage and found that neither Faugheen nor Sizing John was ‘got at’ before their flops at Christmas.
Faugheen pulled up in the Ryanair at 11-2 ON, and the 9-10 ON Sizing John trailed in 32 lengths behind in the Leopardstown Christmas Chase.
‘We know exactly where Faugheen and Sizing John were stabled and no stranger approached those boxes,’ a security statement said.
Trainer Jessica Harrington thinks that the quick turnaround from Sizing John’s John Durkan success may have been to blame.
Willie Mullins remains ‘baffled’ as to why Faugheen ran so badly. ‘It wasn’t as if he blew up in the later stages of a race. He was gone after a couple of hurdles, and that is very, very unusual.’ Faugheen is in light work again.
NEXT UP FOR A SMART SOLUTION
1.45 Naas Sure, there are plenty of baffling results in the mud, as racing continues to defy the bad weather, and I like the forecast for Naas today: ‘Soft To Heavy (Sunny)!’
Albert Bartlett favourite Next Destination climbed into my Fortune Cookies basket with an easy defeat of Cracking Smart at Navan three weeks.
But I kept Cracking Smart in my horses-to-follow list, hoping he would redeem himself on better ground.
The ground is no better, and I did not expect him to take Next Destination on again before Cheltenham (so does the third horse, Jetz), so I’m forced to reopen the case.
An absolute cracker of a Grade-1 novice hurdle is further enhanced by another Navan winner, Speak Easy. I’ll have a pound on Cracking Smart at 10.0 but adding Next Destination to my Daq Multiples.
2.50 Naas I was also disappointed in Asthuria at Thurles in November, but my dual Fortune Cookies winner of last Spring (after her fifth at Cheltenham) should get back on track here on her chasing bow.
TIZZARD BACK ON THE RAILS..
2.35 Plumpton (Sussex National) I opposed the old sloggers in the Coral Welsh Grand National yesterday and 13-year-olds finished first and second!
But following young horses, and keeping pace with the stats, is one reason why I have never been beaten in a single season by Pricewise.
‘Keeping pace’? Stats are stats, you say. But stats contain trends, and two changes affect us throughout the big-race scene these days.
Younger and younger horses are winning. Handicaps get shorter and shorter, sometimes with only a few pounds between top and bottomweight.
This Sussex National is quite a long one, with an old-fashioned range between 12st and 10st., but only once in the last decade has the winner been a double-figure age.
Yes, he was the winner on one of the last two occasions the race was run on ‘heavy’. He was an 11-year-old, Double Dizzy. But nine-year-olds generally do best, with currently six out of nine.
Henri Parry Morgan’s form is the kind of double-dizzy conundrum you have here. Has not won since 2016 but has slid 13lb down the handicap, yet carries 12st topweight in the mud.
Similarly, Shotgun Paddy (swerved the Welsh National) is down 16lb on his 2016 Eider Chase second and 9lb on his third in the same race in 2017. Meanwhile, he’s been third in the Warwick Classic, but was tailed off in the Mandarin at the turn of the year.
Another tricky one. Frank N Fair goes for a Plumpton hat-trick today and is one of the few runners in any kind of form. Though she’s 10, the mare has had only nine chase starts.
Her two December wins have cost her an 18lb rise out of a grade lower, yet she races off the minimum 10st today.
However, her Plumpton runner-up last time, Bears Rails is 19lb better off and had earlier ploughed through the Uttoxeter mud, beaten a short-head (3m 2f heavy). I took 13-5 on BETDAQ to return the Tizzard team to form.
Though Shanroe Santos has been consistent and won two races last Spring, the handicapper has never been moved to alter his rating by more than a couple of pounds since last March.
Vinnie Lewis has had only three runs over fences but has been hiked a stone for winning easily at Sedgefield a class lowr than today.
The local horse Leo Luna was back to a fair semblance of form on the last day but that was after a year off.
THE NAP Odds-on shots abound today but one of them could be in the ‘wrong’ race.
Alan King does well at this Plumpton meeting and Harefield may be a cut above the class-3 novices hurdle field.
The Warwick winner over the minimum is related on the dam’s side to the courageous Menorah and should do even better stepped up in trip.
Says King: ‘Harefield is a grand horse. I was very happy with him at Exeter and he’s come on a lot for that. He’s a stayer in the making, a big scopey type.’
DAQMAN’S BETS
SUPERNAP: BET 20pts win HAREFIELD (1.35 Plumpton)
BET (to win 20) 2pts win and place CRACKING SMART (1.45 Naas)
BULL’S-EYE BET (to win 50) 4pts win and place BEARS RAILS (2.35 Plumpton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 2 x 3pt win trebles HAREFIELD (1.35 Plumpton), with CRACKING SMART and NEXT DESTINATION (1.45 Naas), and ASTHURIA (2.50 Naas)
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