BULL’S-EYE BET BAGS 10-1 WIN: For the second day running, Daqman pounced on a pair of big-race winners at better-than-SP on BETDAQ, when he landed a Bull’s-Eye Bet at Newmarket yesterday with Mubtaghaa (WON 10-1 from 13.5) and the Great St Wilfrid at Ripon with Don’t Touch (WON 4-1 from 7.0).
DAQMAN LEAD SOARS TO 76-11: They had brought in a fresh face for the Pricewise column in the Racing Post but he, too, was whitewashed (2-0) in the usual manner by Saturday-king Daqman, who now leads 76-11 this Flat season, 217-84 overall, so now more than 300 winning bets in the bag if you’d followed their fight.
18.0, 11.0 AND 10.0 BIG-HITTERS TODAY: Daqman is head to head with Pricewise again at Deauville today, and takes BETDAQ offers of 18.0, 11.0 and 10.0 as he attacks more big races. His four Friday-Saturday winners were:
WON 31-10 Baino Hope (Deauville, Friday)
WON 14-1 Rhombus (Colwick Cup, Nottingham, Friday)
WON 10-1 Mubtaqaa (Newmarket, Saturday)
WON 4-1 Don’t Touch (Great St Wilfrid Handicap, Ripon, Saturday)
BACK 18.0 IMPROVER IN DEAUVILLE MUD
3.10 Deauville (Prix Jacques Le Marois) It’s heavy going at Deauville and, though sunshine is forecast today, the ground will have been raced on and could be churned up.
English raiders, Lightning Spear (Olly Stevens) and Estidhkaar (Richard Hannon), might not have a problem: Lightning Spear is a Pivotal and some of his progeny love the mud, while Estidhkaar has been waiting for the soft, according to his stable.
Toormore returned to form at Goodwood and the ground has never been a problem for him. Belardo, still trying to recapture his Dewhurst glory, loves it soft but the Roger Varian yard is not in the best of form.
Before yesterday’s Doncaster winner, there were 13 consecutive losers, 11 of them starting at 11-2 or shorter. That’s missing strike.
The French team is strong on the form book but not in the ground. Guineas runner-up Territories is a much better horse when the surface is firm. Esoterique would prefer top of the ground and had a cut-throat contest with Muhaarar only a week ago.
So my pick of the Andre Fabre trio would be the supplemented Vadamos, with the trainer saying he could be ‘my new Manduro’ (Fabre’s last winner of the race in 2007). This time the worry is the draw (stall 10).
Since 1992, the race has been run on soft or softish ground 11 times, with the winners by stall: 1, 3, 4, 4, 5, 5, 2, 4, 5, 5, 1. Nothing higher than gate 5, albeit some of the races had small fields.
There’s not much between the age groups this century, with three-year-olds leading the older horses narrowly, 8-7.
The 2014 French Guineas winner (on soft), Karakontie, hasn’t raced this year and is starting out late after a setback but mainly with the Breeders Cup in the trainer’s mind.
The Racing Post says that Territories and Karakontie are joint top-rated, ‘according to the French handicapper.’ We’d love to see those ratings but the Post publishes only official ratings (OR) just for English horses, and their own Racing Post Ratings, which are out of kilter with the actual weights.
VERDICT: The Hannon pair, Toormore and Estidhkaar have shown their best form over 7f, and have won only one mile race between them.
There are fitness doubts (Karakontie, no racing; Esoterique, too-recent race), ground worries (Territories) and moderate stable form (Belardo).
It all leads me to look for an improver, getting a bullish supplementing from the best trainer in the race and ridden by the jockey of the moment: Vadamos for Andre Fabre and Vincent Cheminaud can defy form and draw, exchanging at 18.0 this morning.
BROTHER! GRAB THE 11.0 BETDAQ OFFERS
3.00 Southwell A sunny Southwell has its race of the year today, a class-2 chase, for which the market usually gets it about right, six winners out of eight starting 5-1 or shorter.
In-form trainers are David Pipe and Keith Dalgleish, and the trade paper says that Jonjo O‘Neill is getting 83% out of his horses. It depends where you look: on the Post website site, Jonjo, plus Paul Webber, Fergal O’Brien, and Neil Mulholland are all getting 100%.
Tindaro and Buck Mulligan were second and third last year to a Jonjo winner, beating the previous year’s winner into fourth place. But both are bridesmaids, sharing 11 seconds and thirds in the last two seasons.
The winner will really have to man up if he is to overhaul front-runner Alderbrook Lad though, equally, the Lad has to pull out all the stops off his highest ever mark.
Ulis De Vassy is improving but needs to if he is to hold Moorlands Jack on revised terms. Similarly, Jonjo’s novice Gray Hession faces a tricky return match with Owen Na View.
My Brother Sylvest is unexposed over today’s trip as a chaser but has hurdles successes to his name at the distance which makes you wonder what he’s been doing, jumping fences over shorter.
I could get 11.0 the hidden horse, My Brother Sylvest ,and 15.0 Alderbrook lad on BETDAQ this morning and just had to pile in.
I’M ALSO WANTING THAT BETDAQ 10.0
2.45 Pontefract It’s a day for backing improvers, none more so than Almodovar, superbly named for film buffs by Sea The Stars out of Melodramatic.
Almodovar is up in trip here but has always shaped as though needing it. Nap.
3.45 Pontefract After Almodovar, David Lanigan could complete a double with Interception, the Wokingham winner, stepping back down a rung after failing to land a blow in a Group-3 on the last day.
But I’m tempted to another flutter here with Wanting, blocked in her run for some black type (Ayr Listed) on the last day.
The 11.0 on BETDAQ gave me good win and place chances in an eight-runner heat, with a full-cover saver on the favourite.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points unless stated)
BET 10pts win (nap to win 20 points) ALMODOVAR (2.45 Pontefract)
BET 3pts win (Hidden Horse) MY BROTHER SYLVEST and 2pts win ALDERBROOK LAD (3.00 Southwell)
BET 1.25pts win and place VADAMOS (3.10 Deauville)
BET (to win 20): 2.2pts win and place WANTING and 2.2pts win (stakes saver) INTERCEPTION (3.35 Pontefract)
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