23.0 BETDAQ TILT AT THE FRENCH OAKS: After an 80-1 second yesterday (Pearling Path) which paid 13.0 a place taken on BETDAQ, Daqman tilts at a 23.0 outsider in the French Oaks this afternoon but fancies a woman jockey to be the Classic winner. His nap is at Pontefract.
TOMORROW; FORTUNE COOKIES: Look out tomorrow and Tuesday for Daqman’s revised Fortune Cookies in the setting of a Royal Ascot wrap and big-race dates for the future.
EREVANN RECKONED THE VALUE
🇫🇷 12.30 Chantilly (1m, Group 3) The Aga Khan, who has one of Europe’s top three-year-old colts in Vadeni, hopes to add to his Arc-day team today with Erevann.
Erivann is hoof-to-hoof this afternoon with Tribalist, the Longchamp 2,000 Guineas third behind Modern Games, who was left standing, five lengths and more by Vadeni, in the French Derby.
Spring form gives the odds-on Tribalist the edge: he had split Lassaut and Blue Boat over the Longchamp mile in April, after Blue Boat ran third to Erevann at Saint-Cloud.
But Lassaut is a stablemate of Erevann, a Dubawi out of a mare by Siyouni (beaten in the final strides for the Moulin), who has been allowed to develop in an 82-day break.
The rival trainers today, Jean-Claude Rouget and Andre Fabre, have each captured this twice in the decade.
I’ll rely on Christophe Soumillon to win a tactical race from the one stall (1 and 2 have won it five times in the decade).
BETDAQ value 2.49
BELBEK CAN BEAT THE FILLIES
🇫🇷 1.40 Chantilly (6f, Group 3) I’m sticking with the low numbers (stalls 1 to 4 have won 7 out of 10), which recommends Lova, Belbek, Cosmic Invasion and Soumillon again on Sabya.
Cosmic Invasion beat Lova threeparts of a length here last month. The filly who finished fourth has since won a similar race at Longchamp, and Lova herself has won since in a lower-class race.
The Newmarket grey Havana Angel has also scored on a lesser track in France – so we know she travels – and New Collection is unbeaten in Italy.
My vote goes to the only colt in the field, Belbek, a well-bred winner at Saint-Cloud for Andre Fabre and Olivier Peslier. Just so long as he’s not overwhelmed by this date with 10 fillies!
Betdaq Betting Exchange value 5.8 Belbek
NASHWA HOLLIE’S CLASSIC HIT
🇫🇷 3.00 Chantilly (Prix de Diane, French Oaks) I had her in my Fortune Cookies but threw Toy out of the pram when she faded from two out in the French 1,000 Guineas.
I’m sure she will improve but stall 16 may have scuppered her chances for this afternoon.
The last time a wide draw won, Frankie Dettori out of 15 got across and managed to get a good position just behind the leaders and, after a supreme Royal Ascot, Ryan Moore is entitled to say ‘anything you can do..’
Fall In Love, Rosacea and Tariyanna are also on the outer but Nashwa has a rails berth out of gate 2 for Hollie Doyle.
Nashwa was keener than ideal when third in the Oaks at Epsom, and Hollie will be anxious to ‘bury’ her.
She will find Agave and Zellie held up with her. Zellie finished well when fourth in the Newmarket 1,000 Guineas, just behind Tuesday, who won the Epsom Oaks.
That suggests that there might not be much between Nashwa and Zellie here; in fact, official ratings agree: the computer has Zellie a pound in front.
Tom Marquand is in the saddle today, with an Andre Fabre quartet completed by Place Du Carrousel (Mickael Barzalona), Babala (Maxime Guyon) and Agave (Olivier Peslier).
Agave has done well since runner-up in the Prix Greffulhe trial to a colt, Onesto, who was a well-beaten fifth in the French Derby, though the four chasing Vadeni home that day were all of a heap while he was five lengths clear.
Daqman’s 1-2-3: This is Hollie Doyle’s big chance to be the first female rider to win a Classic. Zellie seems to be right alongside but is she the best of Andre Fabre’s? Place Du Carrousel and Agave have to improve only a pound or two, and the word is that Agave is the one. The way Ryan Moore is riding, I shall have to have a pound on Toy.
BETDAQ value: 2.82 Nashwa, 7.1 Agave, 23.0 Toy.
PONTEFRACT: BARTZELLA BEST
⭕ 4.45 Pontefract (1m 4f, fillies Listed) A race that four-year-olds win 9 times out of 10, and three of that age group in this all ran in a similar Listed at Goodwood.
Tom Marquand races against his partner, Hollie Doyle, in the French Oaks, but after his exploits at Royal Ascot, Danny Tudhope is a supersub on Bartzella.
Bartzella beat Lady Hayes a neck at Goodwood, with Glenartney five lengths behind in fourth, the slow pace – and a 3lb pull – suggesting Lady Hayes could reverse the placings today.
But she’s been beaten since and, in fact, hasn’t won a race in nine attempts following a smart start with back-to-back novice success.
By Starlight was in front of her the last day, when they were fourth and sixth in a Group 3 at Haydock.
But I’ll stand by the winning form of Bartzella, who goes for a hat-trick, with the computer upgrading her 21lb for back-to-back wins. `
BETDAQ value 2.5 Bartzella
KAIZER FOR THE MONEY IN CUP
⭕ 5.15 Pontefract Cup (2m 2f handicap) Eight of these have form over Jumps and on the Flat, producing the following ratings: Diocletian (124 Flat :72 Jumps), Kaizer (123:59), Flint Hill (112:70), Tigerten (109:69), Uncle Henry (107:60) and Rukwa (101:67). Kaizer is capable of closing some of the gap between his Flat rating and his hurdles progress. He was last night’s punt.
We’ve lost the J P McManus top-weight Didtheyleaveuoutto and Paul Nicholls’ Oleg; both withdrawn this morning.
Byron Hill is a 2m winner on the level in today’s good-to-firm conditions. Even better, Flint Hill is a winner twice here at Pontefract over 2m 1f on good to firm.
BETDAQ value 7.2 Flint Hill, 8.6 Kaizer.
DAQMAN’S BETS
12.30 Chantilly (win 10)
BET 6pts win EREVANN
1.40 Chantilly (win 20)
BET 3.5pts win BELBECK
3.00 Chantilly (2 x win 10, win 22)
BET 5.5pts win NASHWA
BET 1.6pts win AGAVE
BET 1pt win TOY
4.45 Pontefract (win 10, nap)
BET 6pts win BARTZELLA
5.15 Pontefract (win 12)
BET 2pts win FLINT HILL
BET 1.5pts win KAIZER
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