SUPER SUNDAY IN THE RAIN FROM DEAUVILLE TO CARTMEL: Despite winners at York at 18-1, 15-2 twice, 6-1 (nap) and 7-2, Daqman is glad to see the back of it, after the track deteriorated in the rain. Today’s Deauville meeting could be a king (or queen) maker, while Naas has a fabulous prize for its Sales race. There are two Group-3 events at Sandown, and Cartmel jumpers elbow their way onto terrestrial TV.
Headlines
🔹 IT’S NO SOFT TOUCH FOR DETTORI
🔹 WHY IT COULD BE A TACTICAL RACE
🔹 TAKE BOLLEVILLE TO BOUNCE BACK
🔹 NORTHERN RAIDER IS A BEAU BET
🔹 QUADRILATERAL’S TURN AT LAST
🔹 KING VEGA TASTY AT BETDAQ 5.0
IT’S NO SOFT TOUCH FOR DETTORI
Forget the last two days. Particularly York yesterday. Don’t write off the horses that couldn’t cope with appalling Flat-race conditions that many a jumper would have baulked at.
There were 58 lengths between last and first in the Melrose, so we really are talking steeplechase distances!
And, while ITV raved on, oblivious, the Racing Post online were returning the going as ‘good’ – an improvement? – before they changed it to ‘good to soft’. This morning from Ebor onward, they are posting ‘soft’.
Did you notice how very few got into the Ebor? They had no chance of making up ground on that sort of surface; the top was already sloughed off and loose divots were being thrown up like an all-weather kickback, particularly in the straight.
To thousands of you tearing up the form book, stick it back together with a reminder: keep stakes low when it’s raining and remember the York motto.
I was taught it way back in the good old bad old days by pro punter Alex Bird: ‘When the going is soft at York, back only previous York-soft winners; when it’s heavy, only York heavy.’
Today we have some actual jumping at Cartmel and Flat at Sandown, with both tracks described as ‘good to soft; showers’. Deauville is ‘very soft’ for the Prix Morny. French translation especially for innocent punters: ‘deep doo-doo.’
One man knew what he was doing: Frankie Dettori. Better the heavy at Deauville than the so-called ‘good to soft’ at York!
He landed a Group double there last weekend with Mishriff and Palace Pier on officially ‘heavy’.. and didn’t come home!
He stayed on – in case of quarantine problems – to ride Campanelle, a filly against the colts in today’s two-year-olds ‘classic’ Prix Morny. But can she cope with the conditions?
WHY IT COULD BE A TACTICAL RACE
⭕ 1.35 Deauville (Prix Morny) Campanelle went into my Fortune Cookies horses-to-follow list after running away with the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot.
Her trainer, Wesley Ward, completed the same double with Lady Aurelia in 2016. But will Campanelle handle the ground?
She is taken on by Tactical, Andrew Balding’s July Stakes winner on good to soft at Newmarket, and Rhythm Master, who won in similar conditions for Richard Fahey at Haydock.
Fahey won the Prix Calvados for two-year-old fillies yesterday with Fev Rover, who was beaten a head by Dandalla on the July Course at Newmarket, and Rhythm Master is said to be ‘superior’.
Nando Parrado won the Coventry at Ascot on the same day Campanelle won the Queen Mary on the same ground in more or less the same time.
The runner-up to Campanelle went close in the Lowther at York this week but the second in the Coventry was well beaten by Tactical on the July Course.
Mick Channon’s Cairn Gorm has already won over the Deauville CD in the Caborg, the race that was a stepping stone for Earthlight to win the Morny last year.
Despite the ground, connections of Campanelle, Tactical and Rhythm Master are all talking up their contenders. Campanelle? ‘Will stay further and no excuses on soft.’ So I’ll stand by my Cookie in what could decide a Guineas winter favourite.
TAKE BOLLEVILLE TO BOUNCE BACK
⭕ 2.50 Deauville (Prix Jean Romanet) Dettori won this for John Gosden last year on Coronet, and his Gosden ride here, Nazeef, has already won on the soft.
But she has not won over the distance, and went down three lengths to Fancy Blue in the Nassau Stakes at Glorious Goodwood at the end of July.
She had been expected to stay and there were excuses afterwards; she didn’t come down the hill all that well and didn’t gain ground until too late.
Bolleville turned over hot favourite Dariyma when they met over 10 furlongs at Saint-Cloud on deep ground last autumn.
Dariyma held both Fabre fillies, Suphala and Romanciere the last day, with Pierre-Charles Boudot keeping faith with Suphala.
⭕ 3.25 Deauville (Prix Kergorlay) Frankie Dettori could be going for a hat-trick here on an Ed Dunlop raider, Red Verdon, who beat top French stayers Called To The Bar and San Huberto at Longchamp the last day.
But that was a small-field, slow-run race and Called To The Bar was a long away adrift of Call The Wind in a £1million-plus International at Riyadh, and was earlier fourth behind three contenders for today’s race.
That was the Group-2 Prix Vicomesse Vigier at Chantilly, a good guide to this and won by San Huberto from Call the Wind and Get Shirty. San Huberto was around 6-1 this morning.
NORTHERN RAIDER IS A BEAU BET
⭕ 2.15 Cartmel William Young’s Ardera Cross and Peter Bowen’s Wells de Lune, the last two winners of this handicap chase (2m 1.5f), are back for more.
Both stables are out of form but one or both of them could have been plotting for this. Well, wouldn’t you?
As punters, we need a glimmer of hope and it’s hard to pick either one of them against three winners who are at least two years younger.
Yccs Portocervo is particularly unexposed, maybe needing more experience, in fact; and Court Royale is thought not to want any cut in the ground.
It would be routine to expect Northern Beau to need the race after 197 days off but trainer Michael Scudamore has just had a couple of winners and rarely takes horses this far North. BETDAQ 6.2 taken.
⭕ 2.50 Naas Just short of 150,000 euros go to the winner of this 6f Sales race for two-year-olds, almost twice as such as the equivalent at York won by Happy Romance on Thursday.
Both low drawn, Giorgio Vasari (made all) and Charmed were one-two over the Naas CD three weeks back for Aidan O’Brien and Joseph respectively.
Charmed (at 25.0 on BETDAQ) has the one stall this time, with Giorgio is out wide in 16, a couple of stalls beyond Devious Company (14) who was second to Happy Romance after running up to Battleground at Goodwood.
Measure Of Magic (gate 3) was third to subsequent Lowther winner Miss Amulet and Frenetic in a Listed at Naas.
Frenetic was then an easy odds-on winner at the Curragh, in receipt of 2lb from Chief Little Hawk.
It’s a pinstickers’ race but I shall rely on the low draw and the genius of Jessica Harrington and have a spare euro on Street Kid (from 2): BETDAQ 18.5.
Improved dramatically between an outing here at Naas and – quickening well on soft ground – success at Cork over further.
QUADRILATERAL’S TURN AT LAST
⭕ 3.05 Sandown (Atalanta Stakes) Three-year-olds are 7-3 up in the decade in this Group-3 fillies and mares.
Lady Bowthorpe has already won at this level. She went clear at Ascot a month ago which was deemed impressive enough to hike her 13lb in the ratings.
But she is 6lb behind – plus giving 9lb – to Quadrileteral, third to Love in the Guineas and to Alpine Star in the Coronation stakes at Royal Ascot.
Billesdon Brook could bounce back and last year’s winner on firm Lavender Blue – low drawn again – would come into it if she can cope with the ground.
⭕ 3.20 Naas (Stanerra Stakes) A Group 3-for fillies and mares, which three-year-olds have won for the last five seasons.
Not Aidan O’Brien (3 wins) but Dermot Weld (4) is leading trainer and he runs the four-year-old Kastasa, unbeaten in five starts since this time last year, including the Loughbrown at the Curragh at this level in September.
The Classic generation, all getting 10lb from Kastasa, surely relies on Ribblesdale and Epsom Oaks runner-up (to Love) Ennistymon.
This step up to 1m 6f could be the making of her and give O’Brien the last laugh. She was certainly a more agreeable bet at 6.4 in the BETDAQ orange than the 2.16 Kastasa. You can always save on the favourite.
KING VEGA TASTY AT BETDAQ 5.0
⭕ 3.40 Sandown (Solario Stakes) Etonian was impressive over the Sandown CD on firm but will he be the same horse after the rain?
Dubai Fountain has needed her racing experience, has already won on the soft and her Sandown second to Fev Rover looks good after that one’s Prix Calvados win yesterday but the colts usually take this Solario.
King Vega’s sire won the French Derby on soft. Not knocked about when runner-up on the debut, also here at Sandown. Tasty 5.0 on BETDAQ this morning for a sporting nap in this Group 3.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.35 Deauville
FORTUNE COOKIE
BET 20pts win CAMPANELLE
2.15 Cartmel (win 10)
BET 2.5pts win NORTHERN BEAU
2.50 Deauville (win 10)
BET 2.5pts win BOLLEVILLE
2.50 Naas (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET: 2.75pts win STREET KID
BULL’S-EYE BET: 2pts win CHARMED
3.05 Sandown (win 10)
BET 6pts win QUADRILATERAL
3.20 Naas (win 20)
BET 3.75pts win ENNISTYMON
3.25 Deauville (win 10)
BET 2pts win SAN HUBERTO
3.40 Sandown (win 20, nap)
BET 5pts win KING VEGA
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