GRAND VALUE ON BETDAQ IN HORSE-BY-HORSE TRIAL ANALYSIS: Daqman goes through the form of the Punchestown Grand National Trial and tries to spot the best outsiders at BETDAQ value. His bets are 10.0, 15.0 and 72.0, though check all the offers as good indicators of the strength in each horse as you get closer to the ‘off.’
SHOULD TIGER ROLL GET AINTREE HELP FROM THE HANDICAPPER? Staying with the National next week, the weights are out for Aintree on Tuesday. Daqman will be looking at this year’s race and how the handicapper handles the pressure to ease the burden on hat-trick seeking Tiger Roll, with connections threatening his retirement if he is not given any leniency.
FIVE RACE CARD: The chase races have been abandoned at Exeter today leaving a five race card of hurdles and a bumper.
HE’S MY HERO AT 15.0 ON BETDAQ
⭕ 4.30 Punchestown (Grand National Trial) Gordon Elliott took this trial prize in 2018 and 2019 with Dounikos and Folsom Blue but Willie Mullins hit back last year to land it with outsider Ifyoucatchmenow.
This year, Willie leaves it all in Gordon’s hands but the five Elliott runners are outsiders, and all old-timers, apart from the quirky Roaring Bull, who won’t decide whether he wants to race until after the ‘off!’
Here are my top seven, plus worry words about the others in alphabetical order (all BETDAQ offers quoted at time of writing) :
1: SE MO LAOCH 15.0 BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE (Brian McMahon) The name says it all: He’s my hero! Winner of the 2019 Amateur National here at Punchestown, and scored at Navan a year ago. Didn’t run his race in the Midlands Grand National and blinkered first time today.
2: SCREAMING COLOURS 10.0 BETDAQ (William Durkan) Lightly-raced, winner three times running after a break (one a long one through injury), including Punchestown in November, and second twice here since, including Amateur National (came from a long way off the pace).
3: MOYHENNA 12.5 BETDAQ (Denis Hogan) Mares-chase maiden winner at Punchestown in Spring of 2019. Second in the Kerry National (40-1) at Listowel in September and, just held, runner-up the last day at Fairyhouse (mares only).
4: MIDNIGHT MAESTRO 9.7 BETDAQ (Enda Bolger) No evidence on form or in his pedigree that he gets this trip but finished strongly when scoring at the Leopardstown Christmas meeting.
5: HIGH SPARROW 17.0 BETDAQ (Joseph O’Brien) Cork National place and kept on, fourth, trying to make all in the Amateur National on today’s course a month back. Closely matched now with the runner-up, Screaming Colours.
6: THERMISTOCLES 11.0 BETDAQ (Joseph O’Brien) Quality form over hurdles and should stay further as a winner over 3m; not matched this over fences so far but won a beginners at Thurles in March (2m 6f) and has had a run back.
7: FENNO’S STORM 72.0 BETDAQ (Declan Queally) Prolific Points winner (18 times placed; nine of them wins) and won a chase beyond 3m at Gowran Park. Hurdles only since but top boy at the Dublin Festival, Simon Torrens rides.
ALPHA DES OBEAUX Long-time nearly horse who has flattered in Graded company: won six but placed second or third 17 times! Pulled up Thyestes the last day.
BORN BY THE SEA Modest strike rate but won a Wetherby chase over 3m and went close over hurdles the last day. Only seven and could be finding his feet.
CASTLE OLIVER The ‘hidden horse’ of the race, a fine big animal who landed a hat-trick last year at this time but disappointed as favourite for the Leinster National and not seen since. Stamina and long absence are question marks.
DISCORDANTLY Good form at the backend of last year, winning at Gowran Park and fourth in the Troytown. Unseated rider in the Thyestes. Stable badly out of form.
DOUNIKOS Previous winner but no other worthwhile form since way back. First-time cheekpieces may keep him concentrate but I wouldn’t bet on it.
MONBEG NOTORIOUS Former Thyestes winner but just one success in three years since, and pulled up the last twice.
NICK LOST Missed out last year after running in Graded novice chases backend of 2018. Usually jumps well and good run back, third at Naas last month.
OUT SAM Often a short price, often gets involved until the business end. Third and fourth in cross-countrys. Close up when fell three out in the Amateur National here.
ROARING BULL Sulky sort but top class on a going day. Won the big chase at Leopardstown, Christmas, 2019 (one of Daqman’s best guesses) at 16-1! Good second in the Troytown in November but no show since.
SMOKING GUN Four out of five over hurdles, beat Early Doors here in beginners’ chase on the last day of 2019 but out of his depth when tried in the Thyestes and then the NH Chase at Cheltenham. Not get round in Thyestes again last month.
THE BIG DOG Twice placed in beginners’ chases here at Punchestown in December. Beaten favourite the last day at Navan. First run over a trip today.
CARIBENO HAS SIR MARK’S MAGIC
⭕ 2.50 Southwell Mukha Magic seems well treated under a penalty after getting an easy lead here to win on Tuesday, but so many sneaking under the radar are too close to their last combat and get shot down.
There’s nothing better than getting an early lift on to one of Sir Mark Prescott’s sequence horses, and Caribeno (BETDAQ 2.6) is looking for a hat-trick today after scoring first time after a gelding op.
⭕ 4.00 Punchestown After his cracking Christmas win at Limerick, Dinny Lacey deserved a crack at Graded company in the Killiney Novice Chase here at Punchestown the last day.
But he was found out by the longer trip, the heavy ground and a certain star of the young chasers’ cosmos, Envoi Allen. Back among the lesser lights and returning to the minimum today. BETDAQ 3.8 taken.
⭕ 4.20 Southwell Michael Bell could land this Ladbrokes handicap with Heatherdown Matron after taking a tough little three-runner race at Lingfield yesterday through Twilight Heir. BETDAQ 6.2.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.50 Southwell (nap)
BET 6pts win CARIBENO
4.00 Punchestown (win 10)
BET 3.5pts win DINNY LACEY
4.20 Southwell (win 10)
BET 2pts win HEATHERDOWN MATRON
4.30 Punchestown (win 50, win 20 place)
BULL’S-EYE BET 5pts win SCREAMING COLOURS
BULL’S-EYE BET 3.25pts win SE MO LAOCH
BULL’S-EYE BET 0.75pts win and 2.25pts place FENNO’S STORM
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
