10.0 DELIGHT LANDS BETDAQ VALUE: 10.0 value taken on BETDAQ saved most of the day for Daqman when James’s Delight (WON 6-1) carried top weight of 9st 9lb to win the Saturday sprint at York yesterday. One for the Fortune Cookies list to be reviewed tomorrow before Royal Ascot.
HOT FAVOURITE FOR FRENCH OAKS: Sunday starts with Daqman’s preview of the French Oaks. He finds that he can get double the odds in England about the hot favourite in Paris. He adds in three selections from the domestic action – keeping stakes low.
AVENTURE! RELY ON MAGIC MAXIME
AT this time last year, we had already seen the sensation of the season, Ace Impact, win the French Derby at Chantilly. He would go on to win the Arc.
It will take another good ’un to topple this year’s French king colt, Look De Vega, who also demolished the French Derby field.
And this week at Royal Ascot we will get the measure of their milers when Longchamp 2,000 Guineas winner, Metropolitan, takes on the English and Irish Guineas stars, Notable Speech and Rosallion, in Tuesday’s St James’s Palace Stakes.
⭕ 3.05 Chantilly (Prix de Diane, 1m 2f+) The French Oaks has been just as hot as their Derby in the last two years, with Nashwa (2022) achieving a 120 career mark but Blue Rose Cen (2023) already on 118, and not yet finished her racing.
Blue Rose Cen also has a date at Royal Ascot this week in Wednesday’s Prince Of Wales’s Stakes, against Auguste Rodin and White Birch.
LAYS LOGIC: I wrote last week how a quirky Dance Sequence fluffed her lines in the Nell Gwyn, the 1,000 Guineas and the Oaks, finishing close up in each race but without being able to go through with it.
FORM: Excuses for Tamfana have been justified. Needed the race and held up traveling to the track when third at Deauville in the Imprudence trial then, denied a clear run, only a length behind, fourth, in the 1,000 Guineas, with a hanging Dance Sequence more than six lengths back.
Tamfana has already run on heavy ground at Chantilly and the going reports of ‘good to soft, rain about’ won’t worry David Menuisier.
By Frankel out of a staying mare, Candala won here at Chantilly in the autumn and then took the reliable Grotte trial at Longchamp on her return to action.
The Sea The Stars filly Aventure won another strong test, the Royaumont, here at Chantilly just two weeks back, quickly kicking clear and eased down in the final furlong.
Aventure and jockey, Maxime Guyon, who is on 117 winners for the season, had failed by a short-neck to catch Gala Real at Longchamp. Winner and second are both back in trip today but Aventure is a hot favourite in Paris forecasts.
Birthe (Aurelien Lemaitre) had Survie and Dare To Dream third and fourth, when winning the Saint-Alary at Longchamp over today’s 1m 2f trip.
Halfday (by Lope De Vega out of a Frankel mare) was an easy winner of the Cleopatre at Saint-Cloud, but Maxime Guyon prefers Aventure of the two Wertheimer fillies.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Birthe (9) and Candala (12) may find it difficult to overcome wide draws, whereas I think it will be to the stayer Aventure’s advantage.
She is out of gate 10 but came with a long run to win her trial at 1m 4f and I can see Maxime Guyon accepting the outer route to wind her up.
The rain and the draw (stall 4) will help Tamfana. Gala Real for third from the one stall, where Blue Rose Cen started last year.
TWO AGAINST THE FAV
⭕ 3.40 Doncaster Previous winners Hosaamm and Oxford Comma dominate the Betdaq Betting Exchange market but defying a penalty in these novice events is never easy.
I thought Hosaamm looked a little short. He followed up a promising close-up third on debut at Salisbury with a win when stepped up to 10 furlongs at Newbury last time out but it was a narrow short head win and he didn’t give an obvious impression that today’s further step up in trip will suit.
My options are really to either lay him at just over evens but I prefer to back both Oxford Comma and The King’s General instead.
Oxford Comma won really well at Salisbury last month and the form of that race has taken a boost with the Sir Michael Stoute trained third Power Of Destiny winning again since. The Beckett stable remain in good form and she looks a little overpriced here.
I’m also keen on The King’s General – he has plenty to live up to as he is owned by The King too!!
His Nottingham fourth last month is starting to look a lot better in the light of the winner and second both going on to win since.
The King’s General was always going to be a slow burning project but in receipt of weight from the top two in the market could easily get himself involved at the business end.
SOPRANO TO HIT HIGH NOTES
⭕ 4.45 Thirsk Interesting to see Thirsk racing simultaneously to nearby Doncaster. It’s a late start but Thirsk will finish prior to the alternative sporting action tonight from Germany!
Mezzo Soprano is napped to retain her unbeaten record. She’s certainly no world beater from the Crisford’s stable but landed the odds (4/7, 2/5 and 4/5) with relative ease in her three starts last year – including here at Thirsk.
She’s now up in the weights, has an absence to overcome and the stable are only firing with places rather than wins – but all these factors are more than built into her price and the morning 2.88 looks more than fair for a horse that we still don’t know for sure how good she is.
WAITING FOR DE SOUSA
⭕ 5.40 Doncaster Silvestre De Sousa is enjoying a fantastic strike-rate since his return from Hong Kong proving a change really is as good as a rest – his latest success coming at Sandown yesterday in the Listed Scurry Stakes on Adaay In Devon.
De Sousa has a strong book of six rides today including Hosaamm (obviously hoping that gets beat – see above) and Eagle Landed in the seven furlong handicap at 4.40 – the concern with this one being his best piece of form has come on heavy ground.
Kurimu looks set to go off favourite in the 5.10 after a career best at Brighton last time but I wouldn’t form a queue to back Chris Dwyer’s filly at a short price.
Whatever the fate of De Sousa’s earlier rides I think Kohana Girl could outrun her odds in the finale.
After a series of modest efforts she proved she was a racehorse at Lingfield last time out with a close-up third despite having met trouble in running. That was a fair run and the handicapper has been kind keeping her on the same mark.
I’m offered double figure odds on the morning Betdaq market so will try a WIN 20 and a WIN 10 from a place bet.
DAQMAN’S BETS
3.05 Chantilly (win-50 bull’s-eye bet)
BET 10pts win AVENTURE
3.40 Doncaster (both to win 10)
BET 2.3pts win OXFORD COMMA
BET 1.6pts win THE KING’S GENERAL
4.45 Thirsk (win 10, nap)
BET 5.3pts win MEZZO SOPRANO
5.40 Doncaster (WIN 20, PLACE WIN 10)
BET 2.0pts win and 3.0pts place KOHANA GIRL
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know? DAQMAN’s tips are posted each and every day so he’s always on hand to help with your horse racing betting.
