THREE ASCOT BULL’S-EYES: Arab Spring (WON 5-2) landed a third Bull’s-Eye Bet from four at Royal Ascot this week. One had a staking error but all were clearly marked for a win-50 profit:
HOOTENANNY (WON 7-2 from 7.0)
LEADING LIGHT (WON 10-11)
SUNSET GLOW (2nd 7-1)
ARAB SPRING (WON 5-2)
FOUR ROYAL NAPS OUT OF FIVE: Daqman had a similar week with his Ascot naps, one finishing second to spoil a 100% record, with Pique Sous (WON 11-4) yesterday making it four out of five:
KINGMAN (WON 8-11) banker
INTEGRAL (WON 9-4)
LEADING LIGHT (WON 10-11) banker
ADELAIDE (2nd 6-5)
PIQUE SOUS (WON 11-4)
SCORELINE: DAQMAN 10, PRICEWISE 6: Daqman also named the one-two in the Hardwicke – Telescope (WON 7-4) and Hillstar (2nd 7-1) – and gave Rivellino win and place in the Wokingham (3rd 25-1 from 33.0 on BETDAQ). He won the Ascot match with Pricewise 10-6.
BEING CLEAR ABOUT THE DAQMAN STRATEGY
I had a cunning plan. But it became a bit Baldrick for a moment, because of my cock-up with the double whammy on Leading Light. So let’s be clear what my different bets are intended for:
BULL’S-EYE BET: A selection staked to win 50 points at the BETDAQ offer listed in the orange at the time of writing. It will be 3-1 or better.
BANKER: A 20-point win bet, usually at 3-1 or shorter on BETDAQ at the time of writing. A banker is a maximum-stakes nap. I hope never to miss the word ‘nap’ off it again, or omit the stake (punishment: watch repeats of England matches).
NAP: The most likely winner among my selections on the day. It could be anything better than evens on BETDAQ, right out to around 8-1. It will be staked to win 20 points, or possibly 30 or 40 points.
POINTS: Points are whatever you want them to be. If you bet in pounds, 5pts win is £5. If you bet in £20 units, 5pts win is £100, depending on what can be matched within the liquidity BETDAQ market at the time.
Obviously, you use the points system to follow my selections only when a points target is given alongside the words ‘Daqman’s Bets’.
STAKES: Why does the points target change (from win-20 or win-30 to win-40 or, even, a bull’s-eye 50)? Three reasons:
a) Obviously I want to increase stakes with increased confidence.
b) At a quality meeting, results are more reliable. At meetings where the races are below class 3, the horses are not consistent; you can’t be sure they will run to form. Reduce your stakes.
c) I have some ‘bogy’ meetings (Brighton is one of my worst). There would be no point – forgive the pun – in betting a lot of points at a meeting where I don’t expect success.
STAKES SAVERS: A bet intended as insurance, covering the stake on my main bet. It will often be a favourite I don’t like but one which still worries me. Or it might be a stable second-string.
VALUE: Basically, it is where the offers are bigger than the price ought to be. But it also depends on the race. And what horse with which trainer seems ‘too big.’
(If Richard Hannon has a two-year-old at 10-1 in an ordinary race, when you’d expect it to be one of the favourites, it is unlikely to win. Big prices may look value but it ain’t necessarily so).
The same the other way round; short prices may still be good value. Even if a horse is favourite, it may be value if the second favourite hates the ground and the others are aged plodders.
PRICING UP: I try to make my own ‘book’, pricing each horse according to its form, the conditions and circumstances, so that I can compare what I want with what I can get. It’s like any shopping list, really.
SETTLING: Since the bets are charged to the account, early mouse, at BETDAQ morning prices, it stands to reason they should be returned as such (except bankers, where the stake is not related to the price; it’s max stakes whatever).
I have no control on whether my tips will shorten (I hope they will). If they drift, then obviously I can’t claim the bigger price for the return on any winners.
PLAY: So it is that my tip is a first position on a race. It is up to you – and me, as a punter – to watch the market, play more, cash in, lay off, trade out.. whatever seems the best course of action.
LAY: It is in ‘playing’ a race, that a lay (that the horse loses) may be an advantage, an insurance cover, a laying off of liability, or even an arbitrage, where you can’t lose whether a horse wins or loses.
But, again, my lays are generally opposing the favourite, early mouse, often because it is hyped or its position in the market is not warranted (in my opinion, after pricing up the race).
Strangely, to end on a topical note, I find it easy to strike with a series of successful lays at Cheltenham, but very hard to find a single one at Royal Ascot. Sounds like the subject of an article one day.
PRICEWISE CHALLENGE: That’s where I bet in the same races as the Racing Post man. Win, and place if the BETDAQ orange offer is bigger than 8.0, each to count as a return, a single point scored.
If Pricewise wins and I break even (with a saver), the saver does not count, and he wins. If he fails to win or place, and I break even, he loses a point to me because my bets lost nothing and you could have made money on my saver.
THE EAGLES WHO LANDED ON ASCOT
3.40 Pontefract Castle Stakes This is the race that threw up stout stayer Brown Panther as a four-year-old. Sir Michael Stoute is close on a 50% record on the course.
With Harris Tweed and Rawaki penalised for success in the Pattern, Stoute’s Waila and Gosden’s Freedom’s Light get 5lb, which puts them close to the older horses on the ratings.
Gosden v Stoute was a feature of Royal Ascot, with sensational success for Gosden’s Eagle Top, Kingman and The Fugue but Stoute just having the edge through Arab Spring, Cannock Chase, Integral and Telescope.
What incredible patience and horsemanship there must be at Freemason Lodge: the way they have brought along Arab Spring, the handling of Telescope through perversity to finally come good.
Mark how both were a couple of levels above their rivals when they scored yesterday, a huge margin for error, racing way above themselves and the opposition.
Have you also noticed how very little information gets out from Clarehaven: what other top yard could have sent out Eagle Top to win a King Edward by more than three lengths at 12-1 and Richard Pankhurst to be an equally easy winner of the Chesham at 10-1?
The Cambridge don (John Gosden) and his wife, the new mayor of Newmarket (Rachel Hood) have their house well and truly in order. I haven’t checked with the HQ betting-shops but I can’t imagine a lad from the yard being spotted in one of them by the javelin-throwing blue (that’s John, not Rachel).
Gosden learned his art – training I mean – from the best in the business, Vincent O’Brien and Sir Noel Murless, on these islands, and Tommy Doyle in California.
With Ms Hood’s services to racing administration, and to the town of Newmarket itself, it surely won’t be long before the 2012 champion trainer or his wife – or both – get a gong.
But I’m sure that, if politics and protocol could have taken a back seat for once, it would long ago have been Sir Vincent O’Brien. Sport as the great peacemaker on turf and on pitch, despite the greatest rivalry. Isn’t that what the World Cup is about, or should be.
Back to the Pontefract Castle Stakes, where Gosden might pip Stoute with Freedom’s Light over Waila, since they’ve already finished in that order when Waila failed to respond for a second time to a hood that won her a race on the July Course.
4.10 Pontefract Cup The last five winners had all been seen in hurdles or bumpers. For Sir Frank Morgan to win would be unusual: this has gone to a four-year-old only once in the decade, and he’s only ever won on a man-made surface.
There is evidence – including the booking of Kieren Fallon – to suggest that last year’s winner Herostatus has been saved up for a repeat, off 3lb lower. Nap.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points)
BET 8pts win FREEDOM’S LIGHT (3.40 Pontefract)
BET 4.5pts win (nap) HEROSTATUS (4.10 Pontefract)
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