DAQMAN 17-9 UP ON EVE OF CHELTENHAM WEEK: Daqman landed the Lincoln Trial winner, Nimr (WON 3-1 from 9-2), at Wolverhampton yesterday to go 17-9 up on Pricewise of the Racing Post with 29 points between them (+11 against -18) in their feature-race challenge.
TODAY: Analysis of the Ladbrokes-sponsored Leinster National runners (it’s another clash with Pricewise), relating the form to their entries in the Grand Nationals at Fairyhouse and Aintree.
TOMORROW: Trending Cheltenham 2017. Your card marked in advance of the meeting.
WATCH THIS ‘SPACE’ AT 10.0
4.50 Naas (Leinster National) With the winner’s prize boosted to 100,000 euros, this richest-ever Naas steeplechase features contenders for the Irish Grand National and the Liverpool version on April 8.
The Aintree possibles with their BETDAQ offers for the Grand National are, down the card:
22.0 Ucello Conti (16-1 and 20-1 with bookmakers): Sixth in last year’s Liverpool National and fourth in the Becher Chase over the big fences in December, he was again in the thick of it when runner-up in the Thyestes at Gowran Park in January.
52.0 Thunder And Roses (33-1 and 40-1 with bookmakers) Won the 2015 Irish National but pulled up in the same race last year, despite first-time blinkers. These have been swapped for cheekpieces and he came back to form in December when a tongue-tie was also added, but well behind in the Thyestes.
250.0 Sambremont Well backed for the Ladbrokes Troytown at Navan in November but brought down. Returned to form when runner-up in the Punchestown Grand National trial about a month back. Also engaged in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham next week, as is Undressed.
500.0 Sizing Coal Third in the 2015 Irish National and again in a stamina test at the Punchestown Festival last year. Didn’t take to the big Liverpool fences in the Becher and has to bounce back now.
This Leinster National is invariably won from the bottom half of the handicap. Recent winners have started 6-1, 7-1 and 10-1 for the Irish National at Fairyhouse but the 2012 Leinster scorer, Paddy Pub, was nearest at Fairyhouse (4th 20-1).
Irish National possibles from today’s race include Sizing Coal, Thunder And Roses and Ucello Conti, as well as:
Bonny Kate Won the 2016 Punchestown Grand National Trial and third in all three of Ladbrokes Troytown in November, Thyestes in January and same Punchestown Trial last month.
Texas Jack Grade-2 winner a couple of seasons back and returned to form when beating Thunder And Roses at Fairyhouse last month but could not sustain the revival when pulled up at Navan recently.
Sumos Novios Beat Empire Of Dirt in the Punchestown Chase of 2015 but hasn’t made the same progress, and was fourth behind Texas Jack on the last day.
Abolitionist Second in the 2015 Connacht National but generally low-key form until career best in November, runner-up to Empire Of Dirt in the Ladbrokes Troytown Chase. Not well in with the third, Bonny Kate, at the revised weights.
Rightdownthemiddle Has won only a small-field novice chase from 10 tries over fences but just four lengths off the winner of the Leopardstown Chase in January.
Folsom Blue Seems to have been around for ages, but still only 10, albeit a long time since he won the Punchestown Grand National Trial of 2014. Fourth to stablemate Rogue Angel in the Irish National last Spring.
Not very effective since and has dipped in the ratings, but back to form in a minor race on the last day.
Kilford Pulled up Irish National and Pat Taaffe Chase last Spring. Led and faded, fourth to Folsom Blue in a veterans’ race on the last day.
Space Cadet One that has no fancy entries, Space Cadet has stayer’s blood, related on the dam’s side to a Scottish National winner. He’s the same age and similarly unexposed as last year’s winner of this race.
Vent De La Cote makes a similar leap into a top staying chase but with no recommendation in his pedigree. Nor could I justify a bet on After Aspen, Archie Meade, Fair Return, Georges Conn or Futuramic, and Cork Grand National third, Undressed, has shot up 11lb for a modest novice-chase success on the last day.
VERDICT: Thunder and Roses and Ucello Conti are doing a grand job. And what job is that? Why, together keeping the weight down 7lb for their stablemates Folsom Blue and Space Cadet respectively.
It’s very hard to make a case for anything lower down but two others above them similarly grateful for the concession from the top two are Bonny Kate and Sambremont.
But there was only half a length between Bonny Kate and Sambremont at Punchestown, and Gowran form says that Ucello Conti is still well clear of Bonny Kate at today’s weights.
The conclusion has to be that Gordon Ellliott has it tied up: Ucello Conti on form – 8.2 on BETDAQ – and Space Cadet (10.0) on promise and on the stats.
COUNT THE WINNINGS TWICE
2.20 Warwick It’s 12.0 bar two in this novices’ hurdle but you can’t back the favourite, Grand Turina, and it seems an obvious opportunity for me to bring back my Double Whammy bet – win and lay in the same race – in time for Cheltenham.
Grand Turina was withdrawn at Huntingdon last week after getting right stirred up as the ‘off’ time approached, and the hood reapplied now didn’t help when she unseated rider in an earlier race at Uttoxeter.
On the last day without it, she ‘jumped left’ then ‘dropped herself out’ but ‘closed two out and blundered last.’ She’s all yours!
Count Meribel is a consistent loser but some of the form looks decent and she was unlucky when, seemingly cruising, she was ‘clipped’ from behind, screwing a shoe loose.
2.50 Warwick Adrian Heskin gets off the heavily-penalised Song Saa for the same stable’s hidden horse – they’re all mares actually – Arctic Lady, who has been prepared over hurdles but is expected to be a decent chaser.
Kayfleur hasn’t won for more than two years and has holidayed after a heavy fall, while we need to see again whether Buttercup is really the mare who sprouted wings at Towcester after 16 losing starts of desultory hopping around the gaff tracks. I took 6.0 Arctic Lady.
DAQMAN’S BETS
DOUBLE WHAMMY: LAY to lose 10pts Grand Turina at 2.56; BET 10pts win (nap) COUNT MERIBEL at 2.52 (both 2.20 Warwick)
BET 4pts win ARCTIC LADY (2.50 Warwick)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (each to win 50): 7pts win UCELLO CONTI and 5.5pts win SPACE CADET (4.50 Naas)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
