DAQMAN WINS JUMPS SEASON CHALLENGE 39-12: Daqman beat Pricewise 2-0 at Newbury for big-race honours on the final value-hunting day before the start of the Flat. He had winners in both races at 11-2 and 7-2. The jumps season ends Daqman 39, Pricewise 12.
THREE BIG RACES IN A ROW: It all happened as Daqman landed three big winners in a row, in the Mares’ Hurdle Finale, the Alan King Chase and the Spring Cup, with
WON 13-2 RUN RUCTIONS RUN
WON 7-2 ROALCO DE FARGES
WON 5-4 ERTIJAAL (banker nap)
SEVEN UP TO START THE FLAT: The Flat (turf) season opens at The Curragh this afternoon with another clash between Daqman and trade-paper-tipster Pricewise in the Irish Lincolnshire. Daqman’s tips include 13.5 BETDAQ offer Chapter Seven, with Jamie Spencer over for the ride.
2.10 The Curragh Jim Bolger, going for a four-timer in this maiden, including his unleashing of Dawn Approach in 2012, today saddles hot-pot, Alertness, a son of his beloved but luckless Teofilo, winner five times in a row and champion juvenile but injured before the Guineas.
The stablemate, Alainn, is from a sprinting family and traces back to the lightning-fast Dayjur. How Bolger performs in this and other early races will tell us more about Einstein’s Folly’s chance in the Irish Lincolnshire.
2.40 The Curragh Another Bolger attraction, Aerialist, by Sea The Stars and out of a mare related to a Kentucky Oaks winner, pitted against the Aga Khan’s Rousayan, and our first Ballydoyle three-year-old yardstick for the season, The Islander. Only 61 to come!
3.40 The Curragh (Park Express Stakes) Three-year-olds are 6-5 up on the older fillies in this, but a clear favourite hasn’t won since the race’s inception in 2003.
Tommy Stack (two from two since 2010) and Gentleman Jim Bolger (three wins since 2004) have left Ballydoyle trailing, with just the one for Aidan O’Brien in the race’s 11-year history.
You don’t expect the winner of this Group 3 to come out of a handicap, and the Bolger runner, Morga, has won only once, and that on firm ground.
Stack’s Wannabe Better progressed last summer after breaking her maiden at the ninth attempt. That doesn’t smack of a Group season ahead in 2014 but Tommy does get them ready early and hopes her experience will count.
Ballydoyle’s English and Irish Oaks entry Dance With Another is out of a Sadler’s Wells sister to O’Brien’s Irish 1,000 winner, Yesterday, and O’Brien has reported that she likes plenty of cut in the ground and declared his intention to get her ready early.
Karl Burke successfully campaigned Odeliz in France – Listed win at Longchamp – but the stable is currently missing strike with the last six runners on AW backed in to 5-1 or shorter – 230203 – and Odeliz, beaten on soft and very soft in France, has scored only from good to firm to good to soft.
Dermot Weld’s Vote Often has that ‘could be anything’ look, a Beat Hollow out of a Generous mare who should stay 1m 4f but was capable of winning over 7f at the backend.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Vote Often (7.4) and Dance With Another (8.4) were big enough to dutch on BETDAQ this morning against the exposed Wannabe Better and the French winner, Odeliz, who may need better ground.
4.10 The Curragh (Johnny Murtagh Lifetime Achievement In Racing Handicap) Again, just one winning favourite in the decade but, inevitably, Johnny’s Calorie, a maiden daughter of Sea The Stars, will be backed to win ‘his own’ handicap but her sire gets mostly top-of-the-ground horses.
Interesting that the leading trainer in the race, Dermot Weld (two wins), has put blinkers on the grey Go For Goal. Calorie and Go For Goal, along with Pearl Earring and Pixie Hollow, are the lightly raced two-year-olds who showed some form.
My pick is a 6.6 offer on BETDAQ, Pearl Erring, whose sire, Excellent Art, has a near-25% strike rate for his progeny on heavy ground. He is also the sire of Chapter Seven in the next, the Irish Lincolnshire.
4.40 The Curragh (Irish Lincolnshire) Stalls 12 to 19 have won seven times, and there have been only two winners in single figures. Three times since 2006, when the ground has been heavy, as today, high numbers have swamped the field.
In 2006, when 24 ran, the result by draw was 19, 25, 22, 26, 21, 20. In 2008 (26 ran), it was stalls 27, 26, 5, 17, 16, 18. And last year (20 ran), it was 15, 3, 12, 14, 19, 18.
BEACON LODGE: Tommy Stack has won this twice and been placed three times from nine runners. He’s been lucky with the draw for Beacon Lodge (gate 16), though the gelding is nine now and his claimer has had only three winners in his life, 0-30 on AW this year.
Not so lucky are Aidan O’Brien and Johnny Murtagh (We’ll Go Walking, campaigned in the pattern but won on the debut on good ground, is in 9).
O’Brien’s Ballydoyle runner, Afonso De Souza (third in a Group 3 to a Dewhurst winner) is in gate 10, and is by Henrythenavigator, who usually passes on his hatred for soft ground.
BOLD THADY QUILL: Third last year, is well berthed in 17 but 9lb higher (a massive 16lb worse off with the runner-up, Cheval Rouge, now stall 1) because he’s caught the handicapper’s eye racing in the Pattern since then.
STUCCODOR: Defining Year (stall 11), another Pattern performer, remains a maiden over hurdles but quickly put his AW prep for this to bed over a furlong shorter, and has a good claimer on board. He won the 7f race on this card (now the Johnny Murtagh) three years ago. However, the trainer, four times a winner of this, reckons better ground is needed.
He seems to prefer Stuccodor – so does Pat Smullen– a Listed third who completed five winners in a row last Spring and has also been hurdling. High in the weights but the compensation of stall 18.
REGULATION (stall 15) is from the 2007 winning stable. Three times a CD winner, has been out in Dubai for the winter.
Demands respect as Irish Cambridgeshire runner-up, but prefers better ground. The hood could transform Man Of Erin (stall 21) but it will have to.
EINSTEIN’S FOLLY: Second in the 4.10 race on this card last year, looks handy for this, as a four-year-old drawn 20, thought worth a crack at the Gallinule last Spring.
CHAPTER SEVEN: Ger Lyons’ Chapter Seven (stall 12) has Jamie Spencer continuing his association with the horse after two runs together in Dubai this Spring, now blinkered first time.
Chapter Seven was only a length off the winner, giving a stone, in the Dubai Duty Free (1m 2f) in September and backed ante-post for the Cambridgeshire.
But he swerved the big handicap and instead, with Spencer up, was again beaten around a length in the Group-3 Darley Stakes behind Sandown Mile (Group 2) runner-up Highland Knight.
The English raider, Lord Aeryn (stall 13), is down in the weights and has handled soft ground but has winning form only on a sound surface.
Pivotals love soft ground but his son, Shipyard (19), close up in the market this morning, is hard to assess after one handicap, though the horses around him that day have done nothing.
Canary Row was once thought of as a Group horse but hasn’t won since his two-year-old days (5f heavy) and claiming rider Ben Dawson has just one win on his CV, so is hardly value for his claim at this stage of his career.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Chapter Seven (13.5 on BETDAQ as I write), close up in a Group race, is hard to win with and needs a going day but first-time blinkers should help. Jamie Spencer stays on board after three runs on a sound surface at Meydan.
The draw is not such a worry, since Chapter Seven gets behind, so expect him to be brought with a long run through tiring horses. Potentially a bigger price in running.
The only one for money this morning, Stuccodor (6.8 on BETDAQ) won first time out on the Flat last season, loves the ground and is fit from hurdling.
With Einstein’s Folly, you need to check how earlier runners on the card fare for Jim Bolger. His and Tommy Stack’s are usually the early-bird stables.
I’ve swerved ‘Einstein’ on the grounds that it’s Folly to back a horse whose only success came when dictating the pace in a small field. I wouldn’t like to bet he can do that with 21 others in pursuit on heavy.
BANKER NAP OF THE DAY: Tiqris (4.15 Wincanton) spoiled a sequence of naps for me when brought down, going like the winner, at Newbury. Does not seem ground dependent, and the stable is four from seven, including a fine performance for me with Roalco De Farges yesterday, same connections as my Grand National hope, Balthazar King.
DAQMAN’S BETS:
BET 3pts win VOTE OFTEN and 2.5pts win DANCE WITH ANOTHER (3.40 The Curragh)
BET 3.6pts win PEARL EARING (4.10 The Curragh)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) TIQRIS (4.15 Wincanton)
BET 3.4pts win STUCCODOR, 1.6pts win and place CHAPTER SEVEN (4.40 The Curragh)
NEW !!!
You can now follow BETDAQ updates on Google+
For further details – CLICK HERE
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
