DAQMAN’S LAYS GO 100 POINTS IN PROFIT: Despite a stinking day for the Daqman bets, it was ton-up day for the lays yesterday when he successfully opposed Grand National winner Auroras Encore in the Scottish version (place lay, pulled up 14-1). That brought the lays profit to 100.23 points in 2013.
THAT’S 13 SUCCESSFUL OUT OF 16: It brought his sequence since the beginning of February to 13 up out of 16 (so 81%). He is currently three in a row, yesterday’s scorer following On His Own (place lay, Grand National, fell 8-1) and, at Newmarket this week, Ghurair (3rd evens).
FIVE BANKERS IN A ROW: But his perfect sequence is the 100% record of his banker naps in 2013, five out of five at maximum stakes: Chatterbox won 5-4; Simonsig won 1-7, Sprinter Sacre won 1-4, Annie Power won 4-11 and Toronado won 8-11. Watch this space.
14.0 GUINEAS BET AMONG HORSES TO FOLLOW: Today here’s Daqman’s latest list of horses to follow. It’s Flat only and it cancels out all previous lists. The number will be added to after York, Chester and the Guineas, for which he finds a 14.0 ante-post bet today.
Create your own stable: it’s cheaper with someone else’s horses! Follow the form and make you own list of horses to follow.. a game with profitable consequences for the punter.
It serves to concentrate the mind and keep names to the fore as ante-post books arrive on the scene. I’ve recently had massive ‘overs’ on BETDAQ for Cheltenham and Liverpool (bigger prices than on the day) and here are some of last year’s big races I landed well in advance:
WON 9-1 Danedream (King George)
WON 9-1 Most Improved (St James’s Palace Stakes)
WON 13-2 Bonnie Brae (Bunbury Cup)
WON 7-2 Mayson (Palace House Stakes, July Cup from 20-1)
WON 7-2 Nathaniel (Eclipse Stakes)
WON 3-1 Boom And Bust (Shergar Cup)
WON 3-1 Highland Colori (Newmarket handicap)
WON 5-2 Duntle (Desmond Stakes)
WON 6-5 Imperial Monarch (Grand Prix de Paris)
WON 1-3 Toronado (Listed race at Ascot)
AGENT ALLISON In my horses-to-follow list last year after her initial success and she ran second in the Albany at Royal Ascot before getting stuck in the mud in the fillies’ Marcel Boussac at the Arc meeting.
She came to Saturday’s Duty Free at Newbury with Peter Chapple-Hyam’s horses under a cloud (1-15 in 2013), and she made her run on the ‘sticky’ stands’ side, coming from last to first to be Maureen’s only challenger.
Hot Snap’s Nell Gwyn was given far more credence than the Duty Free and, with Hot Snap 4.4. for the 1,000 Guineas, the Duty Free winner, Maureen, is 13.0 on BETDAQ, with Agent Allison 20 points better at 33.0.
I shall have stronger convictions on the day but, in the belief that Agent Allison will improve no end for the run, particularly when her stable strikes some form, I shall put a bit of 33s in the ante-post betting bag.
CRISTOFORO COLOMBO Dawn Approach, unbeaten in six starts, is now red-hot 2,000 Guineas favourite, with the horse he beat in the Coventry, Olympic Glory, skating up in yesterday’s Greenham trial.
The vibes from Jim Bolger’s yard are good but nothing is straightforward in racing and, with Olympic Gold’s Richard Hannon stablemate, Toronado, winning the Craven Stakes, it is tempting to take a collateral view of the form. One thing is certain: as ever, Hannon has been to the track and done it this Spring already.
But a collateral view would almost certainly lead you to Cristoforo Colombo, beaten only about a length by Dawn Approach and Olympic Glory in the Coventry, drawn on the wrong side in 6, with the front two coming out of 13 and 16, from where the pace was.
Aidan O’Brien’s Henrythenavigator colt – dad beat Derby winner New Approach in two Guineas – had a rather chequered first season but that’s partly because, like father like son, he needed top of the ground and didn’t get it.
If he’s trained on and if, at last, a bit of sustained sunshine arrives, this one has little or nothing to make up on the favourite, yet is 14.0 on BETDAQ this morning, a price which absorbs those risk factors and is almost double the 7-1 with Ladbrokes. I’ll have a bit of that!
GARSWOOD Richard Fahey reckoned he had another improver like 2012 Abernant winner Mayson for the same Craven meeting last week. If anything, Garswood proved better than that at this stage of his career, winning the Free Handicap smoothly and competently.
While that race is not a significant pointer these days, the manner of Garswood’s success certainly was. Connections can’t avoid a crack at the Guineas but I’m looking beyond that to Royal Ascot.
HOT SNAP This one could go right to the top, as half-sister to Midday, also trained by Sir Henry Cecil, with the dam a half-sister to Oaks winner, Reams Of Verse.. also trained by Sir Henry Cecil!
She could outdo them both, in fact, if, as her smooth Nell Gwyn success seems to indicate, she has speed as well as stamina in her locker, albeit the Nell Gwyn was run off a strong pace. As a daughter of Pivotal, cut in the ground won’t matter. One for the list, rain or shine.
MARS The same mix of speed and stamina seems to apply here, too. Related to Invincible Spirit on the dam’s side but by a Derby winner and half-brother to a Group-1 miler.
With Kingsbarns temporarily out of the frame, Mars and Cristoforo Colombo lead the Ballydoyle charge, making this year’s Guineas the first big treat of the Flat. There is no Frankel about, so we’ll have a real race and the O’Brien selected will depend on the ground.
MUTAJALLY Some 13 of the 16 behind last year’s winner of the Wood Ditton Stakes went on to take a race of some description, one or two of them to become minor stars. So I picked two out of this year’s also-rans.
Not given a hard time, Mutajally finished fifth on Thursday, the first five home coming well clear of the remainder. A nice introduction which pleased Sir Michael Stoute.
STRING THEORY Anything String Theory did over the Wood Ditton mile would be a bonus for one bred to get another half mile and by a sire, Medicean, whose progeny improve with time.
Marco Botti’s son of a Black Sam Bellamy mare was green at the start and in the race itself but ran on strikingly to be only about a length down at the line.
TICKLED PINK I had three down for a super Cecil start: Hot Snap, Tickled Pink and Magic Of Reality. I tipped Tickled Pink at 14.0, then napped Magic Of Reality (loser, son, loser!) after the two others had won. It’s never that easy, is it.
Tickled Pink cruised the Abernant as though she’d been sprinting for years, rather than having her fifth only start. She beat seasoned Group-1 speed horses without turning a hair, improving from an official rating of 84 to anything between 109 and 115 at face value. It will be interesting to see what the handicapper says.
TIME AND PLACE Before Garswood won, his trainer Richard Fahey proclaimed Time And Place as his ‘best of the day’. No tongue in cheek though with a guarded ‘but he is thick.’
The Compton Place colt looked as green as they come, failing to pick up, yet he’d already won twice: last summer and on his seasonal reappearance. A big horse, thick in mind and body, could yet be a sprint star, the sort to turn up at a very rewarding price, when the total penny drops.
TORONADO I started with one from my last year’s list and I’ll finish with one. A typical Hannon gun-barrel who strode away with the Craven Stakes.
He will have a massive edge in fitness at Newmarket, and we’ve already seen from our analysis of the Dawn Approach form with Olympic Glory and Cristoforo Colombo that just small improvement over the winter could bring them all together, and precocious exposed two-year-olds like Dawn Approach go straight on my lays list for their second season.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 4pts win TAMANACO and 2.7pts win BRIGHT ABBEY (2.10 Wincanton)
BET 5.2pts win (nap) SOUND INVESTMENT (2.40 Wincanton)
BET 2pts win and place MUMBLES PIER (3.40 Wincanton)
BET 1.6pts win RIVER DANCING and 1.3pts win (stakes saver) SIDNEY MELBOURNE (4.10 Wincanton)
ANTE-POST: WIN-40 JACKPOT: BET 3pts win CRISTOFORO COLOMBO (14.0 for 2,000 Guineas, Newmarket, May 4)
ANTE-POST: WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 0.9pts win AGENT ALLISON (33.0 for 1,000 Guineas, Newmarket, May 5).
DAQMAN’S TARGET: A standard day, staked to win 20 points, with drying ground at Wincanton suggesting some speculative outsiders and with Sound Investment a big price at 4.8 this morning, having waited for this sounder surface. One winner will cover all the other bets with some to spare.
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