BETDAQ FOR BIG-RACE VALUE: It was a pinstickers’ day yesterday but, thanks to the bookies morning-price lures, Pricewise is picking at Aintree (Old Roan Chase) and Saint-Cloud (Prix Royal Oak) this afternoon, so Daqman takes up the feature-race tipping challenge with the scores at Daqman 78, Pricewise 36, knowing that BETDAQ betting is better value.
THE NAP RUNS AT WINCANTON: Daqman’s picks include 10.0 at Aintree and 14.0 at Saint-Cloud. Read his reasoning for the two big meetings. Then find his nap at Wincanton.
DON’T FORGET GOLD GOES WELL FRESH
2.45 Aintree Veterans’ chases have become popular in recent years, but no easier to solve than any normal handicap, if SPs in this one from 15-8 to 14-1 are any guide.
Nigel Twiston-Davies has won it three times in its eight years but no recent winner (Double Ross today) has scored.
These horses aged 10 and over are rarely going to cope with the youngsters during the season, except over stamina-sapping trips. So the clever move is to get them ready first time (Double Ross at Chepstow) when the others are prepping for future targets.
I would be interested in Forgotten Gold (Tom George), who won on his return last season. Eastlake (Jonjo O’Neill) and Masters Hill (Colin Tizzard) have also proved capable of winning after a long break.
Tizzard, who has Thistlecrack entered at Chepstow on Tuesday, is missing strike badly at the moment with one winner (1-21) and 10 others placed without scoring in the last fortnight.
Eastlake has never won this far so I shall take the 4.7 Forgotten Gold in the BETDAQ orange this morning.
3.15 Aintree Twiston-Davies, who has a 50% place strike-rate from 27 runners in the last two weeks, has also struck early (twice) with Templehills in novice hurdles, and he has to aim high – for this class-2` handicap – if he is to land the hat-trick.
Buywise, Born Survivor and Perform have all won when fresh, but Evan Williams (Buywise) is out of form right now, as are Gary Moore, Harry Fry, Richard Newland, Martin Todhunter and Curragh raider James Nash.
Philip Hobbs is having a great autumn and one or both of Perform and Miles To Milan could go close. We are also in the dark about Great Try, returning after 596 days off. Born Survivor is probably the safest bet (5.5 on BETDAQ, as I write).
TRIPLE WHAMMY: SMAD PLACE HUGE AT 10.0
3.50 Aintree (Old Roan Chase) Older horse need catching early, said I. Here’s the great example: a race famous for Monet’s Garden (pictured) (won three times, including when aged 11 and 12) and Wishfull Thinking, winner in 2014, also aged 11.
So you can’t ignore former Champion Chase winner, Sire De Grugy, because he’s 10 now, but he’s unseated rider and finished last of five in his opening runs of the last two years.
That last of five was behind Vibrato Valtat, Third Intention and Gods Own at Exeter last November, but Vibrato Valtat was a long, long way behind Gods Own in the Melling Chase over the Aintree CD.
Third Intention is best in at the weights today but is very difficult to win with and, as we’ve said, the Tizzard team is not yet hitting the mark, though maybe they will have done better at Wincanton (check it out). Third Intention (third in the Topham) is the yard’s Grand National horse.
There’s a big word for Three Musketeers – though the tipsters are not all for one! – but he has a lot to find here on his first run outside novice company.
Keen-going Royal Regatta, from a stable in form, will make this a real test but previous reappearance runs suggest that he won’t last out and the one likely to relish such a test, Hennessy Gold Cup winner Smad Place, is likely to be up there with him and finish the stronger.
That’s exactly what he did over today’s trip in today’s conditions at Ascot a year or so ago, catching front-runner Fingal Bay and slamming him eight lengths.
Alan King still worries that it’s a bit short for him; he gives weight away all round; and this is his prep for the Hennessy again.
If he’s beaten, it must be by God’s Own, who goes well fresh and loves this course because he’s a left-handed performer.
I find Smad Place huge at 10.0 on BETDAQ this morning, but I fear God’s Own (5.1). I can’t have Three Musketeers as a novice in a race won by older, experienced animals. To lay him (4.0 in the green), gives me a triple-whammy chance.
ENDLESS BETDAQ VALUE: GET 14.0 IN TIME
3.25 Saint-Cloud (Prix Royal Oak) English and Irish raiders have done well in this, with the best of them Ardross (1981), Vinnie Roe (2001) and Yeats (2008).
It won’t be easy to stop last year’s winner, Vazirabad, though Quest For More pipped him in the Cadran at the Arc meeting over the gold-cup distance.
The quirky but talented Pallasator had finished runner-up to Quest For More in the Lonsdale at York but not near enough to pose a real threat.
Arc fourth Siljan’s Saga is two years older but 8lb better though beaten only a length in last year’s race. Hoped-for rain hasn’t arrived.
Group-2 winner Sky Hunter, one-time French Derby third, swerves the Melbourne Cup this year and has no form at the trip beyond a failed attempt in Flemington last year.
Penglai Pavilion ran away with the Cesarewitch Trial at Newmarket in September when they all went to sleep except William Buick, who took an unassailable lead.
Success in the 2.45 Saint-Cloud today for Furia Cruzada, the Lancashire Oaks second, would boost the winner that day, Endless Time, who was then runner-up in the Vermeille.
A big filly, Endless Time has grown up this year and, related to stayers on both sides of her pedigree, could be the surprise packet.
As low as 9-1 in places with the bookmakers, Endless Time was a massive 14.0 in the BETDAQ orange this morning.
THE NAP Neil Mulholland’s burgeoning Bath stable landed a double yesterday and his successful summer campaigner Courtlands Prince (odds against in the 4.40 Wincanton as I write) is back while the going remains on top, with nothing to beat endless there’s a hidden horse.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points each, unless stated)
BET 8pts win FORGOTTEN GOLD (2.45 Aintree)
BET 6.6pts win BORN SURVIVOR (3.15 Aintree)
BET 2.3pts win and place ENDLESS TIME (3.25 Saint-Cloud)
LAY to lose 10pts THREE MUSKETEERS, and BET 7.50pts win GOD’S OWN, and 3pts win and place SMAD PLACE (3.50 Aintree)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) at SP COURTLANDS PRINCE (4.40 Wincanton)
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