MILLION BACK AT WINDSOR: Daqman dissects the form of four races as the Berkshire Winter Million final-day card returns to Windsor. Altobelli (WON 3-1) was the best he could do yesterday. Now he looks back and looks forward as follows:
▪️ DAY FAVOURITES FLOPPED
▪️ DO THEY REALLY WANT IT?
▪️ YARD INCRE(DI)BILLY HOT
▪️ THE PRESSURE’S ON DJELO
DAY FAVOURITES FLOPPED
ELEVEN losing favourites across the cards at Ascot and Haydock yesterday, four odds-on shots – two won, two beaten – with the fast ground blamed for Energumene’s defeat by a scintillating Jonbon.
The rising star of the day was seemingly Dedicated Hero’s stuffing 3-1 on Royal Infantry in the novice-hurdle division but again connections were claiming the favourite ran below par.
It’s been this way so many times this autumn and winter that the results are littered with pyrrhic victories and inexplicable reversals.
I’ve had days of winning favourites and a day of losing favourites laid, but the two won’t mix, without great good fortune in taking sides.
I’m begging for some sanity and clarity from next weekend’s Dublin Festival at Leopardstown before I can even contemplate a Fortune Cookies list with Cheltenham in mind. And I’m well wary of favourites until the better Spring weather.
So I won’t be taking or laying the odds-on shot which opens Day 3 of the Berkshire Winter Million, switched back to Windsor.
And I’ll just watch the Paul Nicholls hurdles clash with Nicky Henderson, as Jubilee Alpha is challenged by Khrishna in the Mares Novices.
DO THEY REALLY WANT IT?
⭕ 1.20 Windsor Here’s an example of punter perseverance. Zanndabad is twice beaten favourite and has current form of 022-2, while Fasol was three times a losing favourite in 2024, with final figures of 2422.
The Racing Post form guide tells us that ‘the pick is Onewaywest’ (form figures 222F-2). Give me strength! Do any of these horses really want to win?
The guide tells us Onewaywest ‘did not have the race run to suit his patient tactics’ over CD last month, omitting to report that his entire career is a sequence of seconds, barring a fall two outings past!
All others in the race have won only their maiden over the sticks, barring Devon Dude who has won just her bumper.
Really and truthfully, is this race worthy of the Winter Million umbrella? I will hope the handicapper has it right and that Reallyntruthfully can back up his impressive win at Warwick at tasty BETDAQ 13.0.
YARD INCRE(DI)BILLY HOT
⭕ 1.55 Windsor Etalon hasn’t had his soft ground since a hat-trick at this time last year but punters are warned that his trainer, Dan Skelton, has three in the race.
It’s a similar return to the mud for Crebilly, runner-up over further in the Plate at the Cheltenham Festival. Stable in form and could benefit from the pace of Sans Bruit and Editeur Du Gite.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 6.5 Crebilly, 6.5 Etalon
⭕ 2.30 Windsor Despite a long absence, Minella Missile, who has bags of stamina and beat the 2023 Challow Hurdle winner at Cheltenham in the November, has been well supported.
Gwennie May Boy is a heavy-ground scorer and won the Grade-3 handicap at the Grand National meeting last Spring (3m plus).
Betdaq Betting Exchange 7.4 Gwennie May Boy, 7.5 Minella Missile
THE PRESSURE’S ON DJELO
⭕ 3.05 Windsor Is Djelo the new L’Homme Presse, the stable’s winner of this chase last year from Protektorat?
Ahoy Senor, whose reputation continues to precede his form, is a decent horse at Aintree: second in the Bowl, third in the Old Roan.
But the real question in this race is whether Djelo can repeat his impressive Peterborough Chase victory over Protektorat at this two-furlongs-extra trip.
DAQMAN’S BETS on Betdaq Betting Exchange
1.20 Windsor (win-50 bull’s-eye bet)
BET 4pts win and 2pts place REALLYNTRUTHFULLY
1.55 Windsor (each to win 22)
BET 4pts win CREBILLY
BET 4pts win ETALON
2.30 Windsor (each to win 20)
BET 3pts win GWENNIE MAY BOY
BET 3pts win MINELLA MISSILE
★ 3.05 Windsor (win 20, nap)
BET 8pts win DJELO
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