DAQMAN’S 15-2 WINNER WAS 17.0 ON BETDAQ: It was a case of the change of going and mea culpa on a rare unprofitable Saturday for Daqman yesterday but not before he again pointed up big betting value on BETDAQ with the gambled-on Confessional (WON 15-2), saying that offers of 17.0 in the morning were ‘well over the top.’
9.6 BETDAQ OFFERS ABOUT TODAY’S NAP: Daqman boldly predicts a resurgence for Hallelujah at York, 9.6 on BETDAQ this morning. He says she’s waited for the better ground and has an unfair sexist advantage in the Listed this afternoon. He tries to pick up on six naps in a row from Saturday to Thursday of last week.
2.00 York You may find it hard to pick the winner of this but it will tell you a lot about the going. The forecast is for drying conditions in the morning but with more rain forecast this afternoon. Remember York quickly turns soft.
Jockeys and trainers who walk the course beforehand will decide whether, in this opening race, the horses stick to the rail or go up the middle.
Last year, they bunched in the middle, which helps to explain the result by stall (12 beat 15 and 3), whereas those drawn 2 and 3 had won in the two previous years, though not exactly hugging the rail.
In races up to a mile on softish ground, a horse racing handy and relishing conditions can get away from the field, as did Confessional and Gordon Lord Byron at Haydock yesterday. Hold-up horses are left with a lot of work to do.
Though Remember has won on a sound surface, and is giving weight to all bar Bow Creek, she is by soft-ground sire Selkirk. Bow Creek was third over CD on good to soft, trying to make all but fading, though he afterwards lasted out on the turns at Chester. He looks less likely to give away weight, back on this stiffer track and seemingly held by New Bidder on Pontefract form of a month ago.
Second and third have both come out and won from Zeshov’s race at Sandown in June but why haven’t we seen the winner since? I can only assume he’s been waiting for better ground.
The outsider I like is Porteous (47.0 on BETDAQ this morning), with bags of stamina in the pedigree and by a sire who gets soft-ground horses. She is with a stable boasting 23 juvenile winners this year and has had a break after running well at a low level, which is why she has only 8st 2lb.
2.30 York Guessing at the ground, guessing at the ability of some of these. Last year’s winning trainer, Richard Hannon, again catches the eye, with Sacha Park dropped in class. However, no previous winner had more than three runs.
Richard Fahey (Bahamian C and Oak Bluffs) has won it twice in four years. The William Haggas runner, My Inspiration, is interesting.
But the really intriguing contender is Middle Park Stakes entry Galvanize, related to precocious juveniles and from a yard with 25 two-year-old winners this year. The 7.0 on BETDAQ this morning tempts a win buy with a getting-out place bet.
3.00 York (Garrowby Stakes) Three-year-olds were first and third when Mince won this last year. Mince has dropped 8lb since the start of the season but this is not a handicap and that is an indication of her loss of form.
She hasn’t looked the same four-time-winner of last autumn, albeit placed in a Group 3 last time out when blinkers helped. Visors are tried today.
Of the second-season animals, Baileys Jubilee will appreciate the easier surface but needs to bounce back somewhere near the form of her Cheveley Park Stakes third as a two-year-old.
Smoothtalkinrascal drops down the pattern grades, also favoured by a softer surface but also needing to bounce back, from a stinker at Goodwood, albeit at Group-2 level.
I was hooked on Hallelujah early on. She’s had a quiet season but that’s because she feels the ground and the better conditions now and in the autumn could see her fulfill James Fanshawe’s forecast that she is Listed or better. Nice 9.6 offers.
A CD winner twice, Ladies Are Forever plummets four grades for this, but her Group-3 race in the summer didn’t have much depth to it, and I find this Garrowby is her level (won two Listeds at Lingfield) and may even stretch her.
Mass Rally, a CD winner, Mirza (third when that one was second at Newcastle) and Nocturn are Listed level, too. No wonder there are half a dozen horses separated by only five points in the BETDAQ market, but I’m happy to test my faith in Fanshawe with a bet on Hallelujah.
Hallelujah and Mince are getting weight from the best of the three-year-olds, Smoothtalkinrascal, and their 5lb concession from the other older horses is the way fillies and mares are helped into black type in these Listed events. In Group races, the (un)fair sex receives only 3lb.
3.35 York By now more rain may have gotten into the ground; I don’t know, but I’ll steer a course away from firm-surface form and I’ll throw older animals overboard. What’s left in the boat?
Handicap trainer of the moment (of the summer, for me) Tim Easterby may have more to offer from Arc Light, who was denied a run at Beverley. She takes a hold and is drawn widish, so we need all of that 14.0 offered on BETDAQ this morning, and Tim has another candidate in King Of The Celts, though perhaps too easy to back at 37.0.
Fragonard ‘could be anything’, as they say, in her first handicap, with Lady Cecils’ record 44% for handicap debutants. Nemushka, down in grade and claimed off, could do better than Morocco, up in class and hiked 9lb for his hat-trick bid.
Bishops Castle was the ‘moral’, runner-up giving a camel’s hump of weight away at Doncaster, and Brian Ellison – who also has a big chance with hurdles winner Montefeltro (5.10) – sprang a surprise at Group level at Haydock yesterday with 22-1 Top Notch Tonto. Trainer him say no fluke, kemo sabe.
4.05 York Tim Walford is 3-3 in the last fortnight, partly thanks to Medieval Bishops’ notching up back-to-back wins.
Eagle Rock, third in last season’s Cesarewitch trial at Newmarket off a pound higher, made all over today’s CD in July. Flashman is another CD winner at York and is not ground dependent. Body Language holds Nashville on Beverley form but they were similar offers this morning.
You could fancy Hawk Mountain on form but trainer John Quinn has had 35 runners in almost three seasons at York without scoring, according to the Racing Post.
Pearl Spice is up in grade but handles an easy surface and has Ryan Moore to help. I think we’ll see Flashman and Eagle Rock (11.5 offers this morning) in at the finish.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points)
BET 6.6pts win REMEMBER and 0.4pts win and place PORTEOUS, with 1.6pts win (stakes saver) ZESHOV (2.00 York)
BET 3.3pts win and place GALVANIZE (2.30 York)
BET 2.3pts win (nap) HALLELUJAH plus 1.3pts win (stakes saver) MINCE (3.00 York)
BET 3.7pts win BISHOP’S CASTLE, plus 1.6pts win and place FRAGONARD and 1.5pts win and place ARC LIGHT (3.35 York)
BET 2.6pts win FLASHMAN and 1.9pts win EAGLE ROCK (4.05 York)
BET 3pts win MONTEFELTRO (5.10 York)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 1pt win doubles and 1pt win treble Hallelujah (3.00 York), Montefeltro (5.10 York) and Giovanni Boldini (5.30 Dundalk)
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