FAIRY-TALE HAT-TRICK MARRED: Daqman had been celebrating a naps hat-trick with Forest Fairy in the Cheshire Oaks yesterday when his second Classic-trial winner of the day, Hidden Law, broke down after the line. ‘A tragedy when clearly on the path to the Derby with huge potential,’ says Daqman.
Wednesday: profit on the day 18 points
WON 11-4 FOREST FAIRY (Cheshire Oaks nap)
WON 5-4 HIDDEN LAW (Chester Vase)
Monday and Tuesday naps up
WON 5-4 COOLEENYMORE (Tuesday nap)
WON 5-4 SHE’S GOT BOTTLE (Monday nap)
* Daqman v Pricewise now 16-12 to Daqman
OPEN GOAL FOR THE CLARETS
⭕ 1.30 Chester (5f handicap) ‘You can’t win from a high draw.’ Unless you are enterprising jockey, David Nolan, who switched sharp left at the ‘off’ from gate 13, like a Tory MP crossing the House, and raced up the rails on 20-1 Garfield Shadow in the opener yesterday.
I pay that tribute to the jockey on lucky 13 before analysis of this sprint at a higher level (class 2) reveals the last 10 winners by stall as 3, 4, 4, 3, 1, 1, 3, 1, 3, 3.
No David Nolan in this race; in fact, no David Nolan all day, though his current form-figures are 14121. He’s back on Friday, but not at Chester; at Ripon!
So, in fact, Garfield Shadow was his only ride at the Chester Festival. What a player!
Meanwhile,I’ll stick to the low draw in this sprint, where the trainer of Garfield Shadow, Richard Fahey, has CD-winner Vintage Clarets out of stall 5.
Since scoring at Chester last June, Vintage Clarets has won three at today’s level, whereas Roman Dragon (from the one stall) has found 5f too short and class 2 beyond him so far.
Robert Cowell has been missing strike with three consecutive seconds, and Democracy Dilemma (gate 2) has won all his turf sprints on soft-heavy.
NOW HE’S EVER SO BRAVE…
⭕ 2.35 Chester (7.5f handicap) The old incumbent of Manor House, Tom Dascombe, who had a winner back here on his old stamping-ground yesterday, faces three (a third of the field) sent out for this by the yard’s new guv’nor, Hugo Palmer.
But Sir Michael Stoute takes them all on, ‘very hopeful’ of Never So Brave, his runner-up last July to subsequent Prix Morny and Middle Park runner-up, the unbeaten Vandeek. So a Group horse in a handicap, with Ryan Moore booked.
Witness Stand’s form took a nudge in that direction at Kempton when he faded only in the final furlong behind the subsequent 2,000 Guineas winner.
A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
⭕ 3.05 Chester (Dee Stakes) Though the draw for the sprints failed to follow the ‘rule’ yesterday, the Classic trials continued with a new ‘law’: follow AW winners.
The 2,000 Guineas hero, Notable Speech, had lined up as unbeaten on Kempton, and the 1,000 star, Elmalka, had raced and won only at Southwell as a two-year-old.
Then yesterday, Forest Fairy won the Cheshire Oaks, though not raced as a 2yo and Wolverhampton AW winner on her sole start this year. And the tragic Hidden Law took the Chester Vase after a short-head defeat at Southwell; again unraced as a two-year-old.
Bracken’s Lough and Capulet are the AW winners (at Chelmsford and Dundalk) coming to the Dee Stakes.
In fact, Bracken’s Lough beat Horris Hill winner Orne and Capulet in the Road To The Kentucky Derby test at Chelmsford, though Orne is ‘in and out’, beaten earlier in two Listed races, the same level as this Dee Stakes.
The one I’m going for as I bid for a Classic-trials hat-trick at Chester is God’s Window, Doncaster Futurity third who made all in his prep race at Nottingham in April and is out of a mare by the big improver, Nathaniel, who won the King George after being second in the Chester Vase.
Jayarebe’s Feilden Stakes form has been let down by one placed horse and boosted by the other, so the jury is still out.
GO FORWARD WITH ALSAKIB
⭕ 3.40 Chester (Ormonde Stakes) Last year’s Chester Vase winner, Arrest (Team Gosden), and the Huxley Stakes hero at the same meeting, Point Lonsdale (Aidan O’Brien), meet in this today. They earned ratings only 2lb apart.
But four-year-olds like Arrest have a poor record in this (1-10) and James Ferguson’s Great Voltigeur winner Deauville Legend in first-time blinkers is just a pound behind Arrest, who has always enjoyed cut in the ground.
Ferguson bagged a big Newmarket handicap at the Guineas meeting with Bague d’Or on the same day that the Gosdens took the Pretty Polly with Friendly Soul.
O’Brien finally got off the mark for the season in England with a maiden winner, Gallantly, at Chester yesterday but the last three days, home and away, have been mainly missing strike with figures of 133222312.
As well as the form of his yard, against Point Lonsdale is that his best record is at 1m 2f on soft-heavy; the Huxley Stakes win revealed his dislike for this track (hung right); and today is his first attempt beyond 1m 4f. In fact, his 1m 4f form is 3000.
I’ll take a chance on the unexposed Alsakib, who has to take a leap forward here but is reckoned by trainer Andrew Balding to have a good season ahead.
Betdaq Betting Exchange taken by Daqman: 1.30 Vintage Clarets (9.9); 3.05 God’s Window (3.65), 3.40 Alsakib (7.2).
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.30 Chester (win 20)
BET 2.25pts win VINTAGE CLARETS
2.35 Chester (supernap)
BET 20pts win NEVER SO BRAVE
3.05 Chester (win 20)
BET 7.5pts win GOD’S WINDOW
3.40 Chester (win 20)
BET 3.25pts win ALSAKIB
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