27-1 DOUBLE IN WINNING SPREE: Daqman made nearly 50 points profit yesterday, including the proceeds of a 27-1 double. He carefully chose a variety of bets which all won:
* Double whammy
* 27-1 stable double
* Odds-on lay
* 6-1, 3-1 and 11-8 singles
* 15.0 place
6-1 SCORER BUT NAP NOSED OUT: His double whammy was to lay odds-on Oakley Girl (2nd 8-13) and win a place return from Maiden Approach (3rd 10-1 from 15.0 on BETDAQ) in the same race. His 27-1 stable double paired Byron Flyer (WON 3-1) and Percella (WON 6-1), and he also tipped Storming Strumpet (WON 11-8). His nap was beaten a nose!
SPOTLIGHT ON THE THYESTES: His lay was proof in the pudding that selectivity is the keynote to backing at odds on, as revealed in the same column yesterday. Today the spotlight at Gowran Park turns to a Daqman v Pricewise duel (scores 20-8) in the Thyestes Chase.
IT’S A BALLY TOP HEAVY THYESTES..
3.10 Gowran Park (Thyestes Chase) This race has been a kingmaker in the past, from the 1964 winner, Arkle, to the 2005-6 Grand National heroes, Hedgehunter and Numbersixvalverde.
It’s thrown up Gold Cup runners-up (Djakadam and On His Own) for the past two years, but I can find only Ballycasey and Rule The World from today’s field with major-race quotes for the future.
The star names have won on soft and heavy despite big weights, although seven winners out of 10 have come from 10st 10lb or lower in the decade.
I’m going to try an old trick to open doors in the wall of 19 horses. I’ll divide the race into three sections, each labelled by the highest weighted in that section.
BOSTON BOB: Rule The World is that fat bridesmaid (form 22022200322) who just can’t run fast enough to catch the bouquet but hardly loses a pound over months in training (rated 145-148 from May to the present).
Can Jack Kennedy’s 5lb claim (he won the Troytown in November) make the difference on the heavy ground that’s brought the horse four wins but none over fences?
Thunder And Roses also needs a hot claimer, Jonathan Moore, who took the Leopardstown Chase on Sunday.
Thunder And Roses who beat Rule The World in the Irish Grand National, must score again at the revised weights, with Rule The World needing to find more than seven lengths on his arch-rival.
Ballycasey has never scored at 3m or beyond, though has finished in front of Rule The World at that trip, and was a contender for the Aintree Grand National as if staying is his game.
His reputation runs ahead of his known ability but he’s won at Gowran, likes the conditions and his form after a long break is 111.
UCELLO CONTI: Ucello Conti was the moral at Leopardstown in December, giving more weight than the equivalent of his one-and-a-half-lengths defeat.
The form is good but not top class, with the third, Folsom Blue, a winner only once in four years, and the fifth horse home, The Job Is Right, a once-a-year horse who is still not fluent at his fences.
Mala Beach is consistent but would have finished behind the veteran Letter Of Credit (one win in two years) had he not fallen at Thurles in November. He’s still dining out on his fourth to Don Poli in December, 2014.
URANO: Only six and an improver, Nickname Exit comes into this on a line through Letter of Credit (hurdles prep, January 1)
There’s not much between Urano and Rule The World, if Urano could repeat their placings at Listowel in September but he was way out the back behind Ucello Conti at Leoopardstown.
VERDICT I find this race really top heavy. If last year’s winner off 11st 10lb, Djakadam, were here, he’d cakewalk it. And, from between 10st 6lb and 11st, one or more of Ballycasey, Rule The World and Thunder And Roses would be the only ones to give him a race in this field.
Ucello Conti has every chance from the middle rank, if he can run a repeat of his first show of top-class form under Jacques Ricou over Christmas.
ORDER-IN 1 Ballycasey, 2 Rule The World (he’s always second, isn’t he), 3 Thunder And Roses, 4 Ucello Conti. Offers of 8.8, 11.0, 25.0 and 10.5 on BETDAQ respectively, as I write. I’ll take Ballycasey, with a win and place Thunder And Roses.
BUT LETBESO BE LET IN SOMERSET NATIONAL
1.35 Wincanton With his form boosted, and his stable back high flying, Present Man is napped to start the day
2.45 Wincanton (Somerset National) It’s a similar situation to Gowran, where good horses (Hello Bud 2009 and Chartreux 2010) can carry big weights but the lower-level winners have been saddled with only 11st 3lb or less.
Last year’s winner, Monkery Tunkerty, 13 now, illustrates the quirky results from this contest (it was his only win in around three years now).
And the fact that he’s up there with 11st 12lb suggests that there’s not much quality about.
With Big Society and Golden Chieftain up 10lb on their best recent form, and Dawson City a stone higher, I shall take a chance with Letbeso (14.5 offers on BETDAQ0 from a stayers’ yard that’s just now come back to its best. He be let in (that was just for Somerset folk!)
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 12pts win (nap) PRESENT MAN (1.35 Wincanton)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (to in 50): 7pts win BALLYCASEY, and 2pts win and place THUNDER AND ROSES (3.10 Gowran Park)
BET (to win 20 points): 1.5pts win and place LETBESO (2.45 Wincanton)
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