NOW IT’S 17 WINNING NAPS FROM 23: Daqman is on another roll, with back-to-back naps, Prince Of Stars (WON 11-8) at Chester yesterday, following on Lamb Or Cod (8-11 banker). In fact, there have been 10 bankers up out of 12. The naps are on 17 from 23.
374 POINTS PROFIT TO LEVEL STAKES: That’s a 74% strike-rate, and 20 points win on every one of the 23 would have produced an overall profit of 374 points:
WON 6-1 ANIPA
(one loser)
WON 4-5 PROVIDENT SPIRIT (banker)
WON 1-1 TOORMORE (banker)
WON 2-1 LITIGANT
WON 5-1 SEA SHANTY
(one loser)
WON 7-4 TOKYO JAVILEX
WON 4-11 CALL THE COPS (banker)
WON 5-4 UT MAJEUR AULMES (banker)
WON 8-13 MUSIC MASTER (banker)
WON 1-2 WESTERN HYMN (banker)
(one loser)
WON 5-2 I’M YOURS
WON 5-4 MAN OF HARLECH
WON 1-1 LITTLE BIG MAN (banker)
WON 11-8 BEAT THAT
WON 4-5 ARCTIC FIRE (banker)
(three losers)
WON 8-11 LAMB OR COD (banker)
WON 11-8 PRINCE OF STARS
Stables who target Chester dominated yesterday. If you award three points a win, two for second and one for third, the table of merit on day one was:
* TRAINERS: Andrew Balding 7, Marco Botti 5, John Gosden 5, Tom Dascombe 4, Mark Johnston 4, Tim Pitt 3, Roger Varian 3.
* DRAW: The low draw was decisive as usual in the Chester Cup (4-11-2-5 were the first four home) and in the sprint handicap (4-1-7-2).
But the conditions-race sprints differed: Mukhmal (in 10) kicked early and my bet, Roudee (9), couldn’t catch him in the Lily Agnes. Again few got involved in the Stella Artois against the rails runners (result 3-4-6).
Some clever form anorak (what are you doing this week, Nick Mordin?) could search the viscera of his computer and tell us whether we should follow horses who buck the draw trends.
I’ll stick to judging stall effect from handicaps only: in theory, the runners should finish in line, so bias is more transparent when you log a series of such races.
1.45 Chester It will be hard for Wigmore Hall and Sennockian Star, with high weights and high draws. Wigmore Hall hasn’t won in England since August 2010 but Sennockian Star climbed 30lb last year and still managed to score in the City And Suburban in April.
Confirmed front-runner Anaconda is also likely to be twice hampered by starting out well wide in the sense that jockey Richard Kingscote (did well for me on Roudee), a master at extricating himself from the Chester pack, won’t want to use up Anaconda.
He’s won only at a mile and weakened out of the finish over today’s type of trip at Lingfield in February. Tough one, Richard!
Closer to the rail, Party Royal, in stall 7, should be able to get across to lead, a typical Mark Johnston make-every-post-a-winning-one.
Meanwhile, I could envisage prominent runner That’s Plenty scraping the paint on the rails from an advantageous gate 2, maybe trying to make the first three all the way, as he did when winning a Dundalk handicap (1m 2f+) in December.
The soft-heavy ground for the Irish Lincolnolnshire looked a killer for the Kilkenny horse but he took the lead at halfway and almost held on. When he followed up at Musselburgh (7f) that was the final straw for the handicapper who has hiked him 10lb since the big Curragh handicap.
But Ronan Whelan’s claim reduces the knock, the draw is worth a few more pounds, and this Dr Fong gelding is clearly one of those late developers.
Makafeh and Marcret could do with the forecast rain. Marcret is one of the last two winners of the Huxley Stakes (Group 3 at 2.15 on today’s card).
The other one, Danadana, goes in the Pattern race again, but Marcret switches to this ‘easy’ handicap (famous last words). Cambridgeshire third Tres Coronas, whose only win in two years has been at Chester – but is still 11lb higher – also wants it soft.
VERDICT: This card is tricky from over my cornflakes, since I cannot know how much rain will fall. They go 6.0 the field in this opener on BETDAQ, with improver That’s Plenty, having proved his versatility both ground-wise and for distance, a solid win-and-place bet at 7.8, as I write. And nothing else worth a sporting nap today.
2.15 Chester Afonso De Sousa (withdrawn from this) was 35 lengths behind That’s Plenty in the Irish Lincoln, which gave me more confidence about my opening-race pick.
Danadana won this first time up last year (from Highland Knight) but the stable is not in the best of form and he looked backward at Newmarket in April. He loves fast ground and that’s another question-mark today, but he’s a Group performer, along with Ektihaam, Highland Knight, Noble Mission and Telescope.
Gabrial’s Kaka, for the Koukash clan, has to raise his game from handicap level, and the jury is out on Edu Querido, whose Pattern-race form is all far from these shores. So Edu won’t be my querido (darling) today.
Sir Michael Stoute is 111210 in this and Telescope is the buzz but also prefers the going on top, and is at the short end here with Noble Mission on two pieces of form, including his defeat by that one in the Gordon Richards Stakes on soft.
Noble Mission made most of the running that day. Can we assume that his lazy days of being slowly away are over? If that is the case, Chester will suit, but he has to start out wide in stall 8.
VERDICT: The milk’s gone sour in my cornflakes! Telescope wants a sound surface if he is to turn it around with Noble Mission, who wants some rain. What to do?
First answer: Back Ektihaam. He would have beaten Noble Mission out of sight at Royal Ascot in a front-running performance worthy of Chester – until he slipped up – though Hamdan’s racing manager is downbeat about him in the Press this morning.
But at least we know he is not ground dependent (has won on soft and firm), is joint-top rated and is with one of yesterday’s winning yards.
Second answer: Get an early position in the BETDAQ market, whatever you choose, because the entire list of offers in the orange adds up to only 102% as I write. Punter-friendly or what!
2.45 Chester Vase Last year’s winner, Ruler Of The World, was the first since Shergar (1981) to follow up in the Derby, though Treasure Beach (2011) was second at Epsom and won the Curragh version.
Ruler’s trainer, Aidan O’Brien, who now saddles Carlo Bugatti and Orchestra, is 1010141 (two favourites, two not) and Sir Michael Stoute, who sends out Festival Theatre, is 1210 (both favourite).
The percentages say that backing blinkered runners is the way to the workhouse at Classic level, for all the Ballydoyle whisperer, Aidan O’Brien, insists they are merely to help him on a sharp track.
Yeh but, yeh but.. Ruler Of The World wore cheekpieces! Yes, I know but you are talking about one of the worst recent Epsom ‘heroes’, 10 lengths behind the Irish Derby winner at The Curragh.
O’Brien says he’s not sure about the trip for Orchestra and John Gosden rates Romsdal only ‘an each-way chance.’ William Haggas says Seagull Star needs fast ground. Festival Theatre had to be hooded in the paddock at Kempton
No wonder, then, that the BETDAQ orange shows a wide-open 4.8 the field, with five horses in a four-point parameter.
VERDICT: This is like judging the X-Factor before we have to see the acts (I wish). Orchestra is the only one who’s done nothing wrong. But whether we’ll see him, or any of these, back for round two – the big one at Epsom – is doubtful. None of them sing. They look a moderate bunch.
3.15 Chester Three-year-old handicaps are a nightmare for backers, and again we can only hope to get an edge from the draw, with Captain Bob seemingly having a better position than Muteela, of the two known front-runners, but with Muteela getting the rave notices this morning.
Brian Noble and Our Gabrial are among the Koukash clan’s seven starters here this afternoon, but Captain Bob has the triple-pack of Dark Angel, Acclamation and Caderaux Genereux down the lines of his pedigree and could be a handicap snip here at 7.2 this morning. But it’s all guesswork today, I’m afraid. For once, I agree with Pricewise: brain work at this meeting only leads to frustration.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 3pts win (nap) THAT’S PLENTY (1.45 Chester)
BET 6pts win EKTIHAAM (2.15 Chester)
BET 4.5pts win ORCHESTRA (2.45 Chester)
BET 3pts win CAPTAIN BOB and 1pt win (stakes saver) MUTEELA (3.15 Chester)
BET 2pts win and place PUSHKIN MUSEUM (4.25 Chester)
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