THE SWEET SMELL OF SUCCESS: 15-2: If there’s a big race, that old dog Daqman’s about, sniffing out the value. Yesterday he tracked down the winner of the Sagaro Stakes, Sweet Selection (WON 15-2 from 12.5 on BETDAQ), after having to sit and suffer as Frankie Dettori got boxed in on the banker, Icespire, a short-head too late at the line.
NOW HE’S 12-4 UP ON PRICEWISE: Sweet Selection sent Daqman into an 12-4 lead over Pricewise with the Guineas to play for at the weekend (Daqman is now + 5.00 and Pricewise – 8.50 to single-unit stakes).
IT’S A 2,000 GUINEAS WILD CARD: Now here’s his ABC guide to the 2,000 Guineas, taking a look at stats and facts, breeding and form. It throws up three or four strong suits but also a wild card at 86.0.
GUINEAS: PEACE MESSAGE 86.0
Hot-pot or outsider? There seems to be a very solid bunch ticking the 2,000 Guineas boxes this year. But a huge flop like Air Force Blue last season is a warning that some juveniles don’t train on as three-year-olds.
Yet it’s often down to one horse to lift the race to real Classic quality, which Sea The Stars, Gleneagles and Frankel did. And it’s a very rare year that more than one decent colt fights out the finish.
We got such a result in the most famous of all Guineas in 1971 when Brigadier Gerard and Mill Reef beat only four others. Two of the all-time top horses.
And there were just nine runners in 1984 when El Gran Senor beat Chief Singer, Lear Fan and Rainbow Quest.. four greats in the frame together!
Chief Singer was the handsomest thoroughbred I ever saw, and an oil painting as a stallion. Irish bred, of course. And black (sorry ‘dark brown’).
Those likely to knock you out with their looks on Saturday are Churchill and Peace Envoy, but how do they rate? Do they fit the criteria for winners of the first colts’ Classic? That’s what the ABC guide is all about.
As low as 25-1 with one bookie, but 86.0 on BETDAQ, Peace Envoy is worth a pound to cause an upset. He will be about 33-1 on the day. Winning long-shots this century: Makfi (33-1 in 2000) and Cockney Rebel (25-1 in 2007).
3.35 (Newmarket, Saturday) 2,000 Guineas
A Winner rated 110+ (90%, some notional)
B Winner of a Group race (100%)
C Winner at least twice (86%)
D Winner at 7f-plus (86%)
E Winner or placed last time out (100%)
F Winner trained Aidan O’Brien (7 wins)
G Winner first time as a 2yo (80%)
X Sire’s progeny’s average winning trip: 9.2f min (80%)
ABCDEFX Churchill
Beaten first run as a two-year-old but five in a row since (all odds on), including Futurity and National Stakes in Ireland, and Chesham and Dewhurst in England. Will he carry the form and the following worshipful description forward into his second season?
Between relaxing or sleeping and throwing the switch on his massive engine, the physically powerful and very imposing Churchill doesn’t do a lot but is a great traveler and has needed only the minimum to win his races. All that from Aidan O’Brien quotes.
ABCDEG Al Wukair
By the sprinter Dream Ahead (7f later on) but related on the dam’s side to French 1,000 Guineas and Oaks winners, and won over a mile at two.
Always boss in the Prix Djebel trial, beating the Lagardere winner, National Defense, but the Lagardere form has been weakened by the runner-up, Salouen (third to Rivet in the Racing Post Trophy and beaten in a Listed on his return). The third horse, trained by Aidan O’Brien, won a handicap last month.
ABCDEG Barney Roy
Bought by Godolphin after winning his maiden in September. His jockey couldn’t pull him up for four furlongs after that race and it was the same story after he sailed past Dream Castle to win the Greenham.
Says trainer Richard Hannon: ‘He moves very differently to most horses, lengthening when others are shortening.’ Sire Excelebration was five times placed behind Frankel (perhaps because Frankel also moved very differently to most horses)!
ABCDEG Eminent
Son of Frankel, related to Oaks and 1,000 Guineas winners on the dam’s side, has won both his starts impressively, beating Racing Post Trophy winner Rivet in the Craven Stakes last month.
ABCDEX Rivet
Won the Champagne Stakes and Racing Post Trophy (Lagardere runner-up Salouen in third), both at Doncaster, as a juvenile. But only fifth to Churchill in the Dewhurst and beaten in the Craven Stakes last month by Eminent.
ABCDG Larchmont Lad
Barney Roy stablemate but owned by the Cheveley Park Stud. Looked good when he scored at Newmarket in September but the winner came out in a handicap this year. Weakened final furling in the Craven Stakes behind Eminent and Rivet.
ABCFG Peace Envoy
Big colt who did well though unfurnished as a two-year-old. Hardly more than an exercise gallop at Naas on Monday when, trapped on the rails, he didn’t get to stretch his legs in the final quarter mile.
By Power, he is half-brother to Czech and Norwegian Derby winners, going back on the dam’s side to a relative of Dahlia, heroine of the Irish Oaks, King George and Internationals in three countries.
ADE Dream Castle
Another Frankel. Ran fresh when caught by Barney Roy in the Greenham. Because of that and because he is from the same Godolphin outfit as the winner, some punters figure he might turn the tables on Saturday.
Night Of Thunder ran up to Kingman in the Greenham (2014) before turning the form around at Newmarket.
ADF Lancaster Bomber
Got a rear view of Churchill in three consecutive races as a two-year-old but was closest to him in the last of them, beaten little more than a length in the Dewhurst.
The Bomber’s brother, Excelebration (sire of Barney Roy), similarly saw the back of Frankel (five times). Second in the Breeders Cup Turf and fourth in the UAE Derby in March, so he certainly looks like a nearly horse.
CDE Law And Order
Son of French Derby winner, Lawman, his third, giving 3lb, in the Feilden Stakes, when Salouen was second, puts him in the picture, since Salouen was runner-up in the Lagardere and third in the Racing Post Trophy.
CD Top Score
Won two prep races at Meydan in February but down the field for Godolphin in the UAE Derby (Lancaster Bomber 4th). Looks 7-10lb short of top class.
F Spirit Of Valor
Another from Ballydoyle. Another War Front, whose Air Force Blue failed to train on last season. Slow away, 8th in the UAE Derby, 11 lengths behind Lancaster Bomber (4th).
LET’S TWIST AGAIN
North-east race fans have a 14 race bonanza today. Seven races at Redcar followed by Sedgefield’s 90th year celebration meeting with another seven races. There’s good to firm ground about at both venues.
2.00 Redcar I don’t often tip debutants but an exception to the rule is Our Little Pony in the opener. My (northern) man in the long grass says she is forward enough for a winning debut and she has plenty going for her in terms of the trainer being in good form, a decent sprint pedigree and most of all this looks a rank poor contest. Fahey introduced Baltic Beau to make a winning debut in this same race last year (and he also won this in 2014) and the omens look strong for a repeat.
Main danger may come from Popsi who arrives from France. Her form is nothing special but she has shown pace and the cheekpieces are applied for the first time today. Her experience and her drop in grade might make the selection work hard.
3.30 Redcar Another low level race but one that stands out to me is Let’s Twist. He has been contesting much higher grade races that this and his last run at Chelmsford can be disregarded has he played up in the stalls and completely missed the break.
His usual style is to be up with the pace and he might prove hard to peg back under regular pilot Kristin Stubbs.
Manatee Bay is clear on official ratings but makes his reappearance here and has always shown his better form over shorter trips.
7.40 Musselburgh Sebastian’s Wish looks opposable. He was all out to win over 1m 4f at Wolverhampton in January and has his first race since then.
Preference is for the mare Cosmic Tigress who looked to not take to Southwell last time out but is a resolute stayer who has won over two miles here.
The Detainee has some good placed efforts but is now 0/9 and by no means certain to see out the longer trip.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 5pts win MY LITTLE PONY (2.00 Redcar)
BET 7pts (nap) win LET’S TWIST (3.30 Redcar)
BET 4pts win COSMIC TIGRESS (7.40 Musselburgh)
ANTE-POST (to win 100): 1.2pts win PEACE ENVOY (2,000 Guineas, Saturday)
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