IS THE NOVEMBER WINNER AMONG THESE SIX? The November Handicap at Doncaster on Saturday puts the lid on another English Flat-turf season. Daqman pits the top three on his ABC assessment with the top three in the ante-post betting. Look out for the declarations later today and, when you see them, mark down the vital ‘factor x’, the draw.
TODAY’S TIPS: Meanwhile, Daqman today takes on meetings on both sides of the Irish Sea. He has his eye on some smart bumper horses making their debut over hurdles and thinks he has spotted one at big price in Ireland.
TOP THREE ON NOVEMBER STATS..
3.35 Doncaster (Saturday, November Handicap) The fat lady sings on Saturday, end of the 2016 Flat season, with a tricky handicap as the feature-race getting-out stakes.
Litigant (9st 10lb then and now), who beat Buonarroti, with Mistiroc fourth, in last year’s race is expected to have George Baker in the saddle off the same weight for Saturday’s double bid.
That means the winningmost weights area of 8st 10lb to 8st 13lb should hold good, whatever drops out.
I say ‘off the same weight’ because, in fact, Litigant races off a 4lb higher rating, which means that this is a better race than last year.
What you’re looking for are horses comparatively lightly raced, with five to seven appearances in their season.
The draw favours double-figure stalls, so whichever one of the top three gets lucky would move to the top of this list:
A Aged younger than six (8 out of 10)
B Carried 8st 10lb to 8st 13lb (6 out of 9)
C Five, six or seven races that season (8 out of 9)
X Drawn 11-24 (19 of last 27 placed). Check it out.
ABC Mistiroc
Well beaten the last twice, after back-to-back wins over this favoured trip and ground at Chester and Ascot.
Fourth in this race last year on heavy but, though 5lb higher now, has his conditions on Saturday.
ABC Montaly
A hidden horse in that he’s always raced beyond his winning trip (1m 4f Haydock good) of two years ago. Success in a soft-ground handicap back at Haydock in September hasn’t done his mark any favours.
ABC Rare Rhythm
Just five races in his life; eased down to win 1m 4f handicap at the right level (class 2) just over a year ago, but not seen again until hampered two in out the Duke Of Edinburgh at Royal Ascot in June, when the medium of a gamble.
… VERSUS THE THREE FAVOURITES
AC Cape Cova
Three wins out of four in a seven-race career; all of those runs were this year. Doncaster form 311, including over Saturday’s trip when beating subsequent Goodwood winner Daphne.
AC Higher Power
Cape Cova and Higher Power came five lengths clear in a class 3 over 1m 6f at Doncaster 15 days ago when Higher Power was giving 7lb.
Power is 6lb better for a neck with the winner now but Cape Cova was proving his versatility at both 12f and 14f and, at age three, is the likely improver from two quick runs after a holiday since July.
AC Wrangler
Needs half a dozen to come out if he is get a run after just two starts this year – both in October – and only seven appearances in a curtailed campaign.
Beat Montaly half a length in the Spring of 2014 but their careers have been sharply divided since, with Wrangler officially 2lb less of a horse but with Montaly rising 13lb through the ranks.
NEWBURY: SNOW DAY AT NEWBURY
2.35 Newbury Dusky Legend brings the best form to the table courtesy of her second place finish behind Limini at the Cheltenham Festival but despite a win at long odds on last time her record of finishing second is worrying. So at the prices preference instead is for Snow Leopardess for Charlie Longsdon. She was a good winner of a listed mare’s bumper at Gowran Park last time and looks the type to do well over hurdles. The form of her last win was given a timely boost at Galway on Monday when the sixth placed Jelan was a good winner of a bumper. The 3.8 on offer looks fair and she may be a filly worth following this winter.
MARKET RASEN: COUNT ON COURT OVER HURDLES
2.10 Market Rasen Willoughby Court was not far off the best bumper horses last season and looks a very generous price at 1.86 for his hurdle debut. He was only beaten 5 ½ lengths by Bacardys in a Grade 2 bumper at the Aintree Festival last spring after previously winning two bumpers impressively. With a clean round of jumping he looks banker material today.
THURLES: MAKE A COOL PROFIT FROM THESE NOVICES
1.20 Thurles Coolmill was not far off the best of these over hurdles and back on his favoured fast surface, he could out-run a big price here. He has had one chase start to his name when tailed off in Killarney but that was on soft ground and can easily be forgotten. An early show of 11.0 on BETDAQ looks fair for this four time winner over hurdles especially when you consider the question marks over most of his rivals.
3.00 Thurles For a while Hows Patsy has shaped like a stayer and will today get his chance today to prove it. He has some useful form to his name over two and a half miles including his last run when second to Blood Crazed Tiger. He will handle the conditions here having won his bumper on good to firm ground and at 5.7 on BETDAQ, he looks like a bet.
CHELMSFORD: FILLY HAS AN ACERTWO UP HER SLEEVE
5.15 Chelmsford Acertwo has taken a real shine to this course and distance; winning two on the bounce and a 6lb rise may not be enough to stop this improving filly. She seems to only do enough in her races which is keeping the handicapper at bay and can be expected to make a bold bid for the hat-trick here. The early show of 3.3 in the orange at BETDAQ looks more than fair.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 1pt win and place COOLMILL (1.20 Thurles)
BANKER: BET 10pts win (NAP) WILLOUGHBY COURT (2.10 Market Rasen)
BET 5pts win SNOW LEOPARDESS (2.35 Newbury)
BET 5pts win HOWS PATSY (3.00 Thurles)
BET 8pts win ACERTWO (5.15 Chelmsford)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
