IT’S WAR AT NEWMARKET: Aidan O’Brien and John Gosden drew first blood in the Classic trials at Newmarket yesterday. Aidan declares War Decree in one of them today, the Craven Stakes, which forms part of the Daqman v Pricewise challenge, in which our man leads 5-1 and is 29 points clear of Pricewise to a single-unit stake (Daqman + 8.50 Pricewise -20.50). They are head to head in the 2.25 and 3.35 Newmarket
CASTLE LOOKS YOUR BEST MOVE
1.50 Newmarket Gunmetal was winner number six in 12 days for Charlie Hills yesterday, and he’s booked Ryan Moore for Hilario, with Moore riding at a strike rate of just under 30%
Hills won this two years ago with Salt Island. Hilario is handily drawn in stall 3 and was 6.8 this morning in the BETDAQ orange.
There have been only three winners in 25 years above 9st and, since the BETDAQ orange is only 108% overround, we can afford another bet.
Maybe faith in Roger Varian will be justified by the favourite, Victory Angel, and Mark Johnston is hopeful that ‘cutting’ Rich And Famous will change his errant ways but the one that looks too big according to gallops watchers is Castleacre (at 9.4), dropped to sprinting.
2.25 Newmarket Richard Hannon (Tabarrak) and John Gosden (Castle Harbour) have started the season well.
Top stables like theirs came to this race last year but Charlie Fellowes sprang a surprise with old-timer Accession at 20-1 last year, and he’s brought him back, trained to the minute to try to pull the stunt again.
However, it would be an even bigger surprise if he justified odds of 7.0 on offer (BETDAQ) this morning.
Tabarrack is another to have been ‘cut’ and the professionals rule is to watch a gelding’s first run. Mix And Mingle, fourth in the Nell Gwyn a year ago, also has to be watched, because her form tailed off last season and her stable has failed to score this year
We chose in this column on Tuesday to follow four-year-olds and they have won EVERY time so far.. two wins on Tuesday, two more on Wednesday.
So I shall take Castle Harbour at 6.6, a winner first time up last season and sixth in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot when the soft ground was against him.
3.0 Newmarket Abernant Stakes) I was going to put Brando in my Early Birds (I did last year and he won at this meeting), and I may regret not doing so, particularly with trainer Kevin Ryan having won this with Hamza and Astaire in 2014-15.
But Ryan was missing strike so badly at the time I compiled my list, and had an even worse run of sheer frustration with form figures from April 10-12 of 32233033123, the win being in a class-5 handicap.
He has continued in similar vein, with 11 in the frame between April 14 and 17, only one a winner, again in class 5. Six placed without winning were 11-2 or shorter.
Brando could defy those stats, as he seemingly doesn’t need much getting ready but also against him is that his wins have come with cut in the ground, and the Rowley Mile was good to firm this morning.
Sticking with the four-year-olds, I shall try the 7f Haggas colt Tasleet – a massive 7.4 in the orange – who well battle out this 6f well if he can get some pace on.
LAD TO EXPOSE FAVOURITES’ FLAWS
3.35 Newmarket (Craven Stakes) The Haggas big one is, of course, Rivet in this. The Racing Post Trophy winner was faviurite for the race and getting all the rave notices until Ballydoyle accepted with War Decree.
Aidan O’Brien has never run the race but, then, his Whitecliffsofdover was a big price yesterday because – as one ITV4 tipster put it – ‘the Free Handicap is not his race and he waits with his horses until the plum prizes later on.’ Famous last words.
Team Hannon has farmed this: four winenrs and a fourth in the last five years, and Larchmont Lad, as well as War Decree, has had only three starts.
Guess what he beat here at Newmarket in September? Answer: Whitecliffsofdover on good to firm ground.
Another guide is that both Rivet and War Decree beat a horse called Thunder Snow into second last season (though not as far as Churchill).
Thunder Snow went on to win three Group races. War Decree was put away. Rivet was beaten by Churchill before winning the Racing Post.
Having said all that, that was last year, and sometimes it has no bearing on this year, as far as young horses are concerned. But Larchmont Lad and Rivet are the ones bred for a mile and further (War Front’s dam is a half-sister to Brando!)
You have that doubt about the track for Rivet after his modest Dewhurst run, so around 6.0 Larchmont Lad is the value on BETDAQ .
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 3.5pts win HILARIO and 2.3pts win CASTLEACRE (1.50 Newmarket)
BET 3.5pts win (nap) CASTLE HARBOUR (2.25 Newmarket)
BET 3pts win and place TASLEET (3.00 Newmarket)
BET 4pts win LARCHMONT LAD (3.35 Newmarket)
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