DAQMAN DARE: ‘I WANT THE 50 UP AT AINTREE’: After flooring Pricewise a sensational 39 winning bets to 12 in their private challenge during the jumps season, increasing his tally with a 4-0 Flat (turf) start, Daqman is back to the chase today, vowing to take his total of 43 to 50 by the end of Aintree.
56.0 ABOUT A 20.0 SHOT FOR THE NATIONAL: Daqman, who had three winners on Monday and three more yesterday, already has 56.0 Rocky Creek and 39.0 Balthazar King – currently around 19.0 and 26.0 on BETDAQ – for Saturday’s Grand National, in bets logged in this column.
TOP 20 WINNERS INCLUDE 20-1, 16-1, 14-1 AND 12-1: Here are some of Daqman’s big-race winners since the challenge to Pricewise started on November 23 last year:
WON 20-1 TRIOLO D’ALENE (Hennessy Gold Cup)
WON 16-1 RIGADIN DE BEAUCHENE (Grand National Trial)
WON 14-1 FLYING AWARD** (Somerset National)
WON 12-1 BALLYNAGOUR (Byrne Group Plate, Cheltenham)
WON 12-1 ON HIS OWN (Thyestes Chase)
WON 12-1 SPRING HEELED (Kim Muir, Cheltenham)
WON 10-1 VOTE OFTEN** (Park Express Stakes)
WON 8-1 LAST INSTALMENT (Irish Hennessy)
WON 15-2 SALUTATION (Rosebery Stakes)
WON 11-2 RUN RUCTIONS RUN (Mares Finale)
WON 6-1 SAPHIR DU RHEU (Lanzarote Hurdle)
WON 6-1 GEVREY CHAMBERTIN
WON 6-1 IRISH SAINT
WON 11-2 STUCCODOR (Irish Lincolnshire)
WON 5-1 SYDNEY PAGET
WON 5-1 HEY BIG SPENDER
WON 9-2 CASTILO DEL DIABLO
WON 4-1 BALTHAZAR KING (Cross-Country, Cheltenham)
WON 7-2 ROALCO DE FARGES (Alan King Chase)
WON 7-2 VAUTOUR (Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, Cheltenham)
(**Pricewise did not tip in these two races, and they do not count in the challenge)
DAQMAN LAUNCHES DOUBLE BONUS BET IN THE FOX HUNTERS’
Daqman bets to win 30 points at BETDAQ morning offers. But if he wants 7.0 (requiring 5 points) and he is offered 13.0, he can double the value by sticking to his stake. Instead of reducing his bet to 2.5 points to win 30, he bets the original requirement of 5 points. This is exactly what happens with his first Double Bonus bet in the Fox Hunters’ Chase today…
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2.00 Aintree Triumph Hurdle winners (three), and seconds (two) and one third, plus a Supreme Novice runner-up and Fred Winter third, have all gone on from Cheltenham to win this.
Guitar Pete and Calipto (unlucky, ‘saddle broke’), third and fourth in the Triumph this year, today meet the Fred Winter winner, Hawk High, and one fancied for Cheltenham but who swerved the meeting, Activial, conqueror of Commissioned at Kempton earlier.
Calipto easily outpointed Activial in November and, on lines through Clarcam, Orgilgo Bay and Bardari, Activial is about ‘the same horse’ as Broughton, who was well behind Calipto in the Triumph.
Another component of the collateral form is Solar Impulse, further behind Activial at Kempton than behind Hawk High at Cheltenham. Form lines are tenuous but there are so many here, all pointing to Triumph form as the best.
Granted Activial is the fresher horse and could have improved, and that Broughton is wearing a first-time hood, which could transform him, but don’t forget that Guitar Pete, in front of the luckless Calipto in the Triumph, had already beaten the winner, Tiger Roll, at Leopardstown.
VERDICT: The rain has come for Guitar Pete who, though exposed, is still improving, according to the ratings (130-132-142-144) and 8.0 is the race best deal in the BETDAQ orange.
Guitar Pete’s style looks perfect for Aintree. It was thought he would wait for Punchestown but has never been out of the frame on a left-handed track and he and Calipto could fight out the finish, though lightly-raced Activial is a likely improver.
2.30 Aintree Bowl Dynaste won the Mildmay here a year ago, while (1-2-3) First Lieutenant, Menorah and Silviniaco Conti were fighting out the finish of this.
Dynaste was back to form in this year’s Ryanair, after an off day, trailing Gold Cup fourth Silviniaco Conti in the King George. But he should not be favourite in this.
The runner-up in Dynaste’s Mildmay has won just a novice chase since and was only 17-lengths fifth in the Byrne Group Plate and the second in Dynaste’s Ryanair this year had won only a modest race at Leopardstown in nine attempts since November 2012.
VERDICT: First Lieutenant (missed Cheltenham for this) was lucky to catch a nervously ridden Silviniaco Conti in this last year (he’d had that crashing fall in the Gold Cup 20 days earlier) and Dynaste, who can sometimes have an off day, doesn’t have the form to measure up to that of the King George and Gold Cup.
3.05 Aintree Hurdle The New One has scared them all away. Only the sixth and eighth, Ptit Zig and Grumeti, take him on again after his unlucky Champion Hurdle third (horse fell in front of him).
Rock On Ruby at his best would be in at the finish but reverts to hurdles after a chase floperoo at Cheltenham and was 10 lengths adrift of The New One at Kempton in November.
Strictly on the book, not allowing for The New One’s misfortunate at Cheltenham, Diakali wasn’t beaten as far by Jezki in the Hattons Grace as was The New One in the Champion Hurdle.
Diakali beat Ptit Zig seven lengths over today’s trip at Auteuil and more rain is welcome for him. Of the five-year-old potential improvers, he seems to be the one.
VERDICT: Today’s trip suited The New One when he won the Neptune in 2013 and he was charging home in the Champion Hurdle after losing his pitch. I don’t feel like ‘buying money’ on the first day of the meeting, so will put The New One in my Daq Multiples.
Diakali may be best of the rest, particularly with more rain, and I could get five times The New One’s win odds for a place Diakali on BETDAQ this morning. Half stake.
3.40 Aintree (Fox Hunters’ Chase) Amateur riders jumping the National fences! No wonder there have been winners at 50-1 and 100-1 in the last four seasons.
Those with experience of the fences (I mean the horses) are last year’s winner, second and fourth, Tartan Snow, Cool Friend, and Warne, plus Boxer Georg (second in 2011), Cottage Oak, Dead Or Alive, Douglas Julian, Fresh Air And Fun, Island Life and Sizing America.
Warne (forced wide, later bumped) was the unlucky horse in this last year, has recently been third to last month’s Cheltenham Foxhunter winner, Tammys Hill.
But I remember his being trounced out of sight by Mossey Joe over regulation fences in a hunter chase at Killarney last year, and Joe has won twice again since.
Best jumper in the field may be Richards Sundance; in fact, he sometime overjumps ordinary park fences, and may be in his element on this course.
VERDICT: Mossey Joe is a short price this morning and the improving Warne is close up in the betting. But easily the value is Richard’s Sundance, a tremendous jumper who has been switched to hunter chases and saved up for this: 13.0 when he should be half the price.
This is not an ideal race to choose to launch my Double Bonus bet but 13.0 is very big for a reliable jumper in a race which boils down to three or four contenders.
But, in the hope that – as with the National last year – the fences no longer take no prisoners, I’ll bet on a good round for all and particularly for this grand jumper. Only four of the 24 runners fell in this a year ago.
4.15 Aintree (Red Rum Chase) Another unlucky at Cheltenham was today’s morning favourite, Claret Cloak, who was about to win the Grand Annual when he blundered at the second last.
But the ground may have gone against him today. Claret Cloak’s form on good to soft or worse over obstacles is 203002, with four wins on good or firmer. We’ll see nearer the ‘off’ time. Off The Ground also prefers it on top.
Last year’s winner, Oiseau De Nuit, fell in the Grand Annual but has also finished second and sixth in this. Astracad was second in 2012.
The six-year-old improvers Arnaud – missed Cheltenham for this – and Sound Investment should go well. Turn Over Sivola had a long break, including the time Alan King’s stable was shut down, to wait for Spring ground. I don’t think he’s got it today.
VERDICT: This race usually goes to a novice, and that would mean Arnaud, Off The Ground, Claret Cloak, Sound Investment, Turn Over Sivola or Bullet Street
Sound Investment is 15lb higher than when winning at Taunton and Turn Over Sivola is something of a bridesmaid. Claret Cloak looked good until the ground changed, so I now prefer Arnaud, highly regarded and missed Cheltenham for this.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points, except half stake for the Place Pick and double stake for the bonus bet)
BET 8pts win CALIPTO and 4pts win GUITAR PETE (2.00 Aintree)
LAY 10pts DYNASTE and BET 11pts win (nap) SILVINIACO CONTI (2.30 Aintree)
PLACE PICK: BET 1pt win and 7pts place DIAKALI (3.05 Aintree)
DOUBLE-BONUS BET (staked as if 7.0): 5pts win and place RICHARD’S SUNDANCE at 13.0 (3.40 Aintree)
BET 5pts win ARNAUD and 1.25pts win (stakes saver) CLARET CLOAK (4.15 Aintree)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 1pt win doubles and 1pt win treble Silviniaco Conti (2.30 Aintree) with The New One (3.05 Aintree) and Richards Sundance (3.40 Aintree)
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